Member Info for Ibiza28

I cannot see the logic for a farm in from a major from their prospective certainly with the current price of oil. So they assume a 30/70 split would get 70% of 40$ a barrell. ie 28$, plus the up front money, plus who is going to the bahamas their 25%. Assuming this is split in accordance with agreement that makes 21$ a barrel (28-7) . I do not know what is costs to drill for oil and then transport it but i would guess at least $20 a barrel that leaves a 1$ risk factor. Some how i do not see it pre spud and struggle to see it post spud at the moment but at least the risk is then removed but the rate demanded would be different. It only becomes really viable as i see it if we hit a mega find. A small or ordinary one coudl leave us all no where till oil picks up. Just thoughts

According to CNN the huricane season still has another 6 weeks to go to its official end. Doubt if any rig is going to leave before middle end of November, i would guess would not want to get caught up in last minute late huricane on the way or just as it mooring up. On another front notice oil went over $41 a barrel the other day so hopefully everything moving in right direction.

I see WTI is over 41. Hopefully like the SP things are on the up.

Yes i agree without a major oil company on board yes far too risky for a big pension fund wanting to risk their income into. But if they had a bit of loose change. Buying a few hundred million at 2.1p with a good chance of them being on board it would rise to 10p at spud you could bail out 20% of your shares and then play the option from there with effectively no investment. Again as you say a complete matter of ones sense of investment.

I am not quite sure what i am looking at or rather why it is what it is. I have seen a sea of blue and some very buy buys yet the price seems to have fallen. I am assuming clearing away the debris of the last placing.

We seem to be attracting a lot more interest now from new sources what is everyones idea as to what this will hit at spud ie middle of December. i was always the optimist and reeckoned on 25-30p but that was thinking we might attract a major fund but there seems no sign of that so i think it is down to us. My thoughts revised down to 6-8p but now with new support coming through (assuming positive RNS news shortly). I am beginning to think we might reach 15p.. If we get major pension fund in then yes we may go higher. Any thoughts.

What classifies as commercially viable oil quality as a matter of interest. This sounds like a big iff is it or am i misunderstanding the point you are making.

Dare i ask but is there some manipulation of the SP going on. No matter what is going on either a sea of red or a lot of blue numbers it seems to always hover around the same price.

I am beginning to think someone or in this case everyone knows more than i do. I topped up this morning expecting to see more blues than red at the moment but all i see is nothing but the Red Sea and no Moses in sight. However my purchase does not seem to be there so maybe there is lag.

So we will not get any news good or bad till about end of the first week in January. Not even interims on progress or what they might have found or not found on the way??

Ok thank you. I was concerned that we might get bad news at the time when the markets were by and large on holiday.

Just been thinking if the drill in on site Tuesday 15th and 3/4 dyas to prepare we start exploring either Sunday 20th December or Monday 21st December are we likely to have any indication of a strike before Xmas or will we need to wait till after Xmas ie Monday or Tuesday 28th/29th as i assume they will be working through the xmas period. If this is a duster (god forbid) i can see a mad rush to markets on Monday or Tuesday morning and would not the directors be there first.

My hope is a spud share price at 25-30p yes i know that this would do to the market cap but it would be like the excitement in the build up to a mega party when we were younger and bear little reality to what that party might be if you follow me.
If the party is really good the build up will just enhance the feeling and get better on the other hand it might be a complete disaster in which case it will come rapidly crashing down.
However one thing i am sure of is this is not going to be done my us alone and we will need a decent sized pension fund to come in and take up a lot of the shares then there is a good chance. IMHO

The question is do i want dilution. The answer is no but if dilution means we get 100% control then i would be happy to dilute and get 100% control of something rather than not dilute and get much much less through another means. It also shows imo that this board really expect to hit oil and not just hope to hit oil because otherwise they would have hedged their bets by now. IMO no farm in at the moment Simon Potter clearly wants to do this himself and is manoeuvring so that it can. how can we do a farm in now we have no idea how much is out there yet. The deal would be different for >2bn barrels than for <0.35bn barrels. But having said that i am sure the talks are going on in the back ground as to whether to farm in after discovery or sale and lease the block.
I think the BoD have strategised this through and playing a long game. The only thing missing at the moment are institutions and that is why the share price is languishing.
One last thing if the BoD are going to dilute the shares to this degree at a discount then the least i would expect is for them to undilute (ie share buy back) when we do strike oil at a premium at the first opportunity.

My best guess is and i am beginning to agree with Zag that pre spud we will be hopefully around 10p but after spud well if we strike out we will be back to the proverbial penny share or we could fly. I reckon we are different from many other companies gone before in that we are doing this ourselves there we control the strings or we ought to be. If we strike then anything could happen as i reckon the institutions will pile in assuming the company does not botch it up. It could go to 50p or even a £1 or more fairly quickly. If they come. If left to us small holders the whole time we would struggle to reach 20p. However if and whne we reach a stage of issuing dividend then all bets on pricing of off as we coudl easily get a dividend that is a multiple of the current share price. IMHO get your investment out pre spud and then it is someone elses money you are playing with.

Assume we strike oil:
1) Simon Potter was on record as saying to wanted to see "regular and sustainable cash flow income". My thinking for doing this and provide for full exploration of Percy 2 would be as was suggested on here a little while ago a kind of sale and lease of the oil field by block. A one off flat payment by estimated barrel for the block followed by x number of years royalty income per barrell of oil payable quarterly (based on the gross value of oil not the net value) easier to prove.
So if we find lets say 1.05bn barrels split into roughly 3 fields of 350mn barrells each receive a flat payment on each then regular quarterly payments with a minimum amount adjusted up or down the following quarter based barrells drawn. The quarterly payments for each field would be split so Jan, April, July and Oct for one then Feb, May, Aug and Nov and then 3rd one at Mar, June, Sept and Dec.
This would provide regular sustainable cash flow as SP was after.

What do with the money?
Invest in Percy 2
Invest in Venezuela
Invest in Trinidad.

Then initiate a share buy back scheme having diluted the shares so much at a lower price time to undilute them at a premium say 1 share for every 4.
Look at establishing a regular dividend scheme. Cash flow coming as suggested in initial thoughts above. This would very quickly push up share price and attract the pension houses. After all is Shell and other oil companies are cutting their dividend why cannot we step in and take over for a while.

The one thing about recessions is the small company that thinks outside of the box will survive and the big ones will struggle as they are like oil tankers and take too long to change direction.

We maybe just one of those.

Let's not be surprised by this it was obvious this was coming. I and i think many others here knew we would be 4bn share business by the time we drill and we will not be far out. The intent from the company was always to go with drilling this on our own and then see what happens. We now i believe have greater control over these assets when it comes. I think this puts us potentially in an even stronger position. If we hit we are in the gravy (oil) if we do not hit we still have a company with assets in Trindidad producing something that should in time cover overheads and then refind ways of looking into Percy2 but i hope company have an eye on that already. Not to mention a license in Venezuela.
I strongly believe good times ahead

I do not see the Ice max on our home page but i do see it on the Proactive forum about the drilling which as you say is more than a little interesting. I just do not understand all the selling at the moment. Where are the big boys someone must eyeing this share by now surely.

This is beginning to become a game of musical chairs with the share ;price yo yoing around. Must admit i am not diving in and out as i don't want to be caught out wihen the ;price does jump. It appears that the string or gap between the music is getting shorter all the time though.

Somebody big is buying in.

So no one sees this reaching £1 or £2 a share on discovering potentially 2 bn barrells of oil. I am not sure how we just end up with just a market value of just around £1bn. I am not asking at point of spud i am asking having done all the exploratory drilling and found hopefully >2bn barrels. The asset value of the company would be far greater than this. I have say that your idea of ballistic and mine are slightly different.