Member Info for Ibiza28

Finally this is some good news. Assume kept quiet so not to disturb the neighbours. All we need now is the CPR on the Cerp assets. An idea as to their underlying value any RBL that we might get and a final up date on the cash position re CLN. Think that covers it or is there something i am missing in all this excitement.

That interview has put the cat amongst the pigeons for sure. I mean do we have any rights to drill for the oil or not. I got impression on reading the SP interview earlier that this was almost a kind of honour thing and now this comes up and basically says it will go to highest bidder and the fact we have put in 15 years or more plus umpteen million will count for very little. All we seem to get is the satisfaction of having found it for them. Trust we have a tighter contract than that. And i thought he was on our side. With friend like this i am not sure i want to see our enemies.

Look at a piece on the Facebook page about JR;s. Unless they have a large sum of money at hand to refund us should they lose it is unlikely the JR will get off the ground hence the request to stop by QC.

I tend to agree with you but do not think they can afford to ignore it. I would want to confront it. Also, and i am no expert, and i know you know a lot more about this but if their concern is with a BP disaster and our insurance levels surely there is a difference between drilling for oil and exploring it and therefore the insurance level of cover would be different.

I am waiting on the CPR i assume it has been side track by other issues. It would be nice to know what underlays our current share price. I have a feeling things have moved on considerably from merger days and the additional expectation on the SP is not as great as we may think.

Without wanting to get greedy or ahead of ourselves too much but on a cold wet November afternoon here in south of england some thing to warm me up is needed. How do we go from, and when, 1.4 bn barrels hopefully to >20bn barrels. Do not get me wrong but going from £1 a share (ok 89p) to £4 or £5 per share and maybe more is far more exciting.
I understand drilling Percv 1 as that has the best chance of success but how and when do will explore Percv 2 if we need to go through all the EA approval processes it could take a year or two not to mention trying to book a rig. Or does "de-risk" in this instance does not mean that the cost is covered but that proof that there is oil in 1 more or less guarantees there is oil in 2. and would someone buy 2 on the back of 1 unexplored.

Another site seems to think there maybe another placing on the way. Any thoughts on that is that just early panic.

I think we will get a CPR report as that covers the CERP assets and they have changed since the merger and i believe would be needed for any RBL which may negate the need for the CLN or the last part of it. So yes i would expect that IMO.

I am not expecting news of a JV with a super major there has been plenty of time for that over the last few months since lock down. I think that last presentation to Investec let the cat out of the bag for me and that is the directors plan to find the oil in both fields and then sell either the company or the Bahamas license. I think both sides are waiting to find out how much oil is out there and price involved. SP EU and the other directors have it in their DNA to build businesses up and sell on. This SP's swan song i believe and wants this to be big. Hence the phone ringing off the hook phrases by both SP and EU and hence EU's watch this space. We will not exist in our current shape or form by this time next year i reckon. This could be seriously big otherwise why no JV. It might also take into account why the directors were never really concerned about the dilution of the shares because it could become moot in time. Maybe completely wrong but i would not want to rush out of this share and then regret. De-risk stay in and enjoy the ride it could be very pleasurable.

We do not want Exxon right now. We are drilling this ourselves. If we were going to farm in we should have done it ages before all this dilution. However i have no problem with Exxon talking to us about things now should we hit what we expect to hit when we drill possibly even agreeing a price obviously depending on quantity and quality of the oil and maybe even agreeing terms to contract subject to any thing being there but it will be at a far better price than on the hope the oil is there.

Am i not mistaken in thinking a decent oil find in the bahamas could produce up to 25000 bopd or is that ridiculous. I mean if only a well can produce 2500 bopd then it would take some think like 100 years to use up a well that would be less than a 1m barrels a year surely they produce more than that.

Let me pose this question looking ahead with a crystal ball. IF we do find what SP LK and others seem to think we will find and open up the whole of the B structure the question in all seriousness is where do we go next.
1) JV with a major for part of the field maybe.
2) Do we look to take over other medium sized businesses in the oil producing business and go it alone???
3) do we want to move into oil productions or just remain a small full cycle exploration company swallowing up minows.

The reason i ask is that as we pull out of recessions and difficult times companies start to "over trade" ie they have to spend money before they have earned it and in a game where CoS is almost all of it there is a good chance over the next 18 months that a number of possiblities will come up.

In otherwords do we try and remain a shark in a goldfish bowl or do we try and strike out by reversing into something bigger. After SP and EU have been known to refer to BPC as BP. Maybe the future will decide whether that is hot air or reality.

I would wait till the election is over next week. I think that and the rise in Covid cases is pulling everything. The one thing markets hates is uncertainty. They need to know we are not going into another two month lock down and that the the US election is decided smoothly and not a protracted mess as DT in promising.

For me at 4p spud price not worth cashing out and de-risking the upside is far too great to ignore at that price. SP of 6-7p starts to become interesting and at anything around 9-10p both a proper de-risk with a premium and enough shares still around makes this very enticing. The upside against the downside is incredible IMO

I am not sure but i think that Santa Cruz in Tenerife do a lot of rig work as well and it is only about 60-70 miles from Las Palmas i believe.

I was an accountant and was the registered office for several companies during that time and i also had several that had a PR address elsewhere in london as well. Nothing unusual. Probably part of the reason would be to avoid UK tax rates and charges.

We are in a different world from pre April. We are now in a covid world. POO is down from $60 to $40S. In my book this effectively rules out any farm in. Why well assuming we had a normal 30/70 farm in the major would get 70% of 40$ less 25% BG royalty a further $7 dollars. Now i do not know how much it costs to set up infrastructure and drill costs but assuming something between $15-$20 depending economies of scale this leaves just $1-6PB for risk. So somehow i would suggest the market has ruled a farm in so lets move on from that. So what is next best alternative. Either dilute through farm in or make sure we find what we can and control it completely but fund it ourselves.
I have had a lot of reservations of this BoD but i applaud that they have acted with decision in very difficult times. It is easy like the majors have done and that is shut up shop for duration bury your head in the sand and hope it will go away (which it has not) and probably lose your license to drill or try and do something about it. They have tried to do something about it. Whether it works or not i do not know but i will always applaud that they tried. You may not like the plan then get out you have had plenty of time this has been signaled that we intended to go our own way on this for a long time now. From what i can tell this is brand new territory. Has any company our size ever tried to explore for its own oil before?? Brave yes but i am not sure what the alternative is. No explore no oil and all money wasted or explore and see where we go from here.
Basically our call as we are the ones funding most of this.

I do as well but still need to de risk myself so a spud price is relevant. The higher the better then i need to sell fewer shares to de risk myself. But yes i am in it for the longish term. I will look at how things look next December and then the following May. It is then then i start to make decisions properly.

Bottom end yes i think so. Could it be higher yes. Will it be i wish i knew. I just feel sure that 4-5p is too low given the time to go. At the moment i feel we are in limbo with out any real information. that RNS this morning is not what i expected and leaves a number of unanswered questions as well as answering one.
Do we still need the CLN if not say so.
Do we still need part of it. Maybe is my thinking. ( extension period probably being negociated)
Do they hope that Saphron 2 will fill that gap but we have no idea what that is producing per day or when it will start or anything from what i can tell.
So more clarity which will come on next RNS or two on Loan note and then i would expect lift off and it should gain momentum nearer spud date.
Here is hoping.

The share price will be what the share price will be but my guess is it will be around 6-7p but it does need something to give it a boost. A bit more clarity would be appreciated. But this share has ability to move at amazing rates both up and down. So asking it to move 0.1p on average each day from here would give us a spud price of around 9p. Not impossible. I would dare to venture how probable i do not know. Forget market cap for time being it will either prove to be grossly overvalued or grossly undervalued by end of Jan. If the reckoning is that on a successful find the share price rises 25p reasonably quickly and on duster we drop to 0.5p then something in the middle would not be too illogical ie 12p. Do we get there anyone knows but change that 0.1p per day rise average to 0.15 then 12p is on the cards???