Member Info for Ibiza28

Mannan
No reason for the rise

Are you expecting this fall. the MV is very low value i would expect there to be a sharp rise shortly unless i am reading this all wrong.

There are two ways to look at this dilution now and i honestly do not know which way it is going to fall so i am edging toward getting out partially but not altogether.
1) This is last minute desperation to keep the lights as Zag puts it and gives us a bit of capital to drill in TT etc.
2) It gives us a bit of capital to say to a major that any bottom draw offer would not be acceptable and get all the bad news out of the way to leave a clean sheet for EU and new board.

The problem i have with the second it is not a new board it is the old board re-hashed. If SP left completely i would be far happier I do not like ex CEO's hanging around for the pension paycheck especially when they have been so responsible for the mess that has been.
As regards P#1 drill. One of the questions that was raised every where on this site by many people were we fully funded. I do not have a problem with not being fully funded for exceptionals like Covid 19 protocols as no one would know what these were going to be or even to cover legal fees for vexacious legal cases bought to try and scupper us.
What i do draw the line at is experienced oil men saying we are fully funded but have failed to take into account problems that seem to happen with many drills. Ie Drill bits breaking, rock surfaces that are difficult to get through so that we end up by not going anywhere near TD because of basics like this. I would have expected experienced oil men to have built into a drilling contingency broken drill bits, a re-route if necessary and those horrible little things called rocks.
If it were my builder saying sorry but i have broken my drill because of the brick work and therefore we cannot go any further non of us would be amused. these are fundamentals in my book. I would also have had a contingency in place to hopefully cover such eventuality. And i thought we did have and that was the CLN could that not have been drawn down on at last minute to cover the last few metres. No this has been a "dead cert" mismatch. So why am i still in because the now the up side is far higher than the down side. But no more money from me and a scaling down of my holding to put else where.

As i think i have said when an accountant takes over the top job it is either to do two things.
1) A hard day to day cull of costs and overheads
2) To make sure all the i's are dotted and t's crossed in any merger acquisition agreement.

- capital raising,
- negotiation of debt facilities,
- risk management and insurance matters,
- M&A and asset acquisition / divestments,

I highlight three things from Neversatisfied report that maybe of import and interest. Mind you i would expect any half decent CFO to have experience in all these issues.
IMO and my hope it is in the last one that i am wishing for.
Let us not get too negative. We did find the oil we were just unable to qualify and quantify it properly because the equipment broke.

I am a bit confused the field seems to be very blue but and share price is red but i am hoping this will see off a lot of the MM's trading out weekly take. Think they may have trouble buying again next week These Share prices at the moment are great.

I take your point so wells in production could continue but there would be no new drilling then. Looks as if it gets v cold around middle end of October from what i can see.

I think there will be three or four phases to SP over the coming weeks/months.
Pre EL issuance. A move to 6p is very possible possibly to 10p even.
Post EL but before Farm in agreement 20p plus
Post EL and farm in with major on favourable terms 30p plus
Start drilling almost take your pick but >50p would be good.
Then i would expect it to dropr right back start at start of winter and production ceasing.

Maybe it is just my hopeful imagine but that looks to be a lot more than just a valuation report. It is a valuation report and a sales assets appraisal report all rolled in to one. Saying to anyone who has not been contacted come and get us. This is what we found and where and extent we have managed to validate and prove it. And to top it off our CEO is retiring and our CFO stepping into the breech. Now from my experience CFO only step up when there are two things. One there is a serious crisis looming that needs very close hands on day to day management or the CFO is there is to put the final dots on the i's and make sure all the t's are crossed in a disposal. Just my thoughts maybe wishful thinking and i have no ideas as what value we may have found. i would about $3 a barrel would give something like 33p per share roughly and would suit me fine, but as i say wishful thinking. If there is an AGM tomorrow then yes we might get something interesting out of that if someone asks the right questions.

Having been on the end of dilution after dilution at BPC when i felt there were other avenues to explore, i also feel that loans at 10% as indicated here are a very expensive way of keeping this in house so to speak. If all we are trying ti raise is $1.5m surely a little right issue would not go amiss. Most people on here have topped up at well over 3p a share surely a rights issue of 1 for 10 at 3p could have done the trick. we all get the extra shares we are looking for at 3p saves us high interest rates and raises not $1.5m but £2.1m.

I would reckon that 10p on sentiment is easily doable. 10p would only be a MC of £70m where as 88e is in excess of 160m and they do not know what they have found or much about what they have found. Where as we know we have 2bn barrels to exploit. Yes there will be profit taking by many but i would hope that once the EL is announced that the slack would get taken up by serious investors. What i do not know is whether the share price moves on actual changing hand of shares ie the actual ability to buy or by people wanting to buy but unable to access shares until the price comes at a level that forces some people in taking their profit ie selling shares.

I am relatively new but a bit confused where does the 30m barrels come from that is mentioned in that piece attached below. The RNS is indicating 2bn barrels. 30m barrels probably would give a share price of 14p but 2 bn would be over £2. I know which i prefer but would like to have some idea as to whether to bail out at 10p or £1.10. One would help the other a lot more than just helpful.

With this debate about share prices i thought i would take a look at the main protaganists in this debate at the moment.

BPC who have drilled and found well very little and wrapped up in court case but with a few other assets.
88E who have drill found something but do not know how much due to other failings
Matd who have found oil ,not hoping to find oil, and have been granted an EL which we are now just waiting approval. A bit like being told you passed an exam and just waiting for the certificate.
So BPC have approx 5bn shares in issues at 0.6p = £30m mc
88E have approx 12.5bn shares in issue at aprox 1.3p = £162.5m
Matd have approx 700m shares in issue at 3.1p = 21.7m mc

So we have the lowest mc but have found and been granted rights to exploit 2bn barrels i believe it is. Even at 20p our mc would be at 140m and still below 88E who still have a lot of promise but no chance of real follow through at moment. Remember that 88e not so long ago were at almost 4p and a market cap of 500m on i a find of about 800m barrels So imo in comparison to other companies we are well under valued but this is not just about MC it is about location it is also about market sentiment and that is why this share is depressed. Personally once this EL is granted 10p could be in the rear view mirror. fairly quickly and once the farm in agreed /announced could be out of site.
But everyone has there out price and the lower that is the easier it will be to off load those shares the higher it is then the harder it will become. But in imo once granted the law of supply and demand will take over for a while as we have a limited supply and there will be a great demand. Thank your lucky stars you are in now. If we had a MC at the moment of 500m our share price would be >70p. I accept there are differences in percentages of ownerships etc but we have found it and hoping what we have found is good enough.

I just ran a through numbers through with one or two assumptions because i do not know the answers too and i came up with £1 - £2 a share as well.
Mine are based on 1bn barrels of oil, a 10 year licence, $60 a barrel, a JV farm in of 75/25 and further on going direct costs of 25% on our behalf and on 1bn barrels over 10 years i get just over £1 a share at 1.4usd to the pound. So on 2bn barrels that is £2 a share. Assuming everything fallis into place. One thing this share does have is not many shareholders and is often difficult to buy new shares so people are only going to sell when they want or need to sell not sell and buy back becasue there is no guarantee of getting them back imo.

Tea always have difficulty buying here.

As i see there are a number of differences between us and 88E and at the same time one important similarity.
88E were exploring for oil and we know the oil is there.
Also we have just 700m shares in issue and 88E have 12.5bn in issue and imo that makes the share far more vulnerable to MM's. Trying to buy PM shares is never easy and often have to wait to find a seller before you can buy i have found.
I think the differences in prices quoted at the bottom end of 6p to 61p at the top i think are symptomatic of the various degrees of caution and understandably given the volatility of recent news from other oil companies at the moment.
I believe we will hit around 10p the minute the news of the EL is granted. there will be a gradual rise through the tens and plateau out around the 20p mark with the news of farm in details and terms and fundraising etc and then as we start drilling it will go further and maybe hit the 60p if all we expect to be there is actually still there then it could reach 75p per share at a guess if everything falls into place but probably until next year now. The similarity is the times of year for drilling are due to either thawing in Alaska or extreme cold in Mongolia and maybe that is why there has been no great rush to get the EL through because in Jan and Feb it would be mid winter. Now would be a very good time to that EL granted either today or tomorrow would be great.

That is a massive sale. Just under one percent of the share capital if i am not mistaken. One this gets moving it will go up pretty quickly i reckon. This is more hand break foot break and emergency break all rolled into one imo.

The price at the end will be somewhere betweenn 10p at bottom end to £1 at top end depending on find and the value per barrel. My reckoning anything over £1.50 is completely out of the picture unless this find is massive.

The Australian market is closed over Easter weekend as is the uk market. The american market is open by looks of it so any chance of buying in cheap will come to them first and Australia i believe and finally us. So if it is good news then everyone will have loaded up cheap and we are left behind and if it is bad news it will already have plummeted. I would hope the company would leave announcement until a time almost captures all markets together but not sure when that might be.
Of course if really good news they just announcement of suspending the shares subject to take over then no ones gets in with cheap last minute buys. GLA

Having re read RNS again. My reading of it is positive. The company have found what they expected but have couched it in language that has an element of doubt to it. My guess is they have found in total somewhere in the middle. ie more than they expected but less than the top end. DW resigning is not a suprise i would have thought he considers his job done ie well drilled and hopefully oil found. If he is going to major i would not be surprised if we end up going there as well.
Assuming oil found of around 1.5bn barrells medium at say 4$ a barrel would be 6bn usd. ie approximately 30-35p per share. if we manage to negotiate more than this then all the better. 4usd represents about 7.5% POO. Approximate going rate i understand for discovered oil.

Easter in US is Easter Monday and of course Easter Sunday not in theory Good Friday.

If there is a leak of information and we find oil then there will be no limit short term to this stock but at the moment i reckon it will bar out at 2p because there are so many shares around.