Member Info for Ibiza28

I am expecting something big to come in August / September. My belief is we are lining all our ducks up ready for a take over hopefully someone big. A lot of signals imho are there as indicated on stockwits.
Dave Wall resigns in feb just at the time when things were getting very interesting for the company.
We replace him with our CFO and replace CFO with a company secretary and i belief previous CFO. IF the company has as exciting a future and the RNS's have indicated I would expect a full on head hunt for experienced Oil guy to come and pick up and reins and would expect them to be lining up at the door wanting the job.
On leaving DW does not sell his stock as might be case if CEO leaves in disgrace but appears to have increased his holdings.
then we sell the tax credits and pay off debt. Now this for me is the biggest give away tell. One thing that oil companies need for than anything is money in the bank to drill with. But no 88E does not bank this for use in near future drilling but repayment of debt very possibly arranged for previous drilling.
No IMO we are being courted whether or not we are woo-ed i i do not know. Just hoping for something big but then after 2p almost anything would be big.

https://youtu.be/KzcEeYEjDs0.

Could be big.

I am not surprised by placement and originally when i bought in i factored in a billion shares before anything happened and i will not be far wrong. Why, i am beginning to think that is this is part of the requirement of being a member of this stock market clubs if the shares look interesting you do not talk up the share price and just leave it to meander and then we will give you the nod as to whether we are interested and then we will take it up and make a killing on your shares instead of your LTH's.

Maybe i am wrong but i am not expecting much in way of movement in share price until we get the result of the COP court case and then probably any news regarding sell on of licenses or even buy out but who knows. I just hope the court case is unequivocal but have a feeling it will be neither one nor the other just hope it is enough for COP to consider taking on some of our fields without it being too expensive. Hopefully then the explosion will happen. I assume we have to wait till Monday week for this result and unlikely to get it on Friday just before hand although that would still be more or less two weeks.

Just wonder would the price be more a correlation with actual oil prices at the time. I heard 3 or 4 but that was when oil prices were below 50$ pb but now knocking on door of $75 fairly consistently i would have hoped for something like 6 but maybe that is too hopeful. My back of fag packet estimate of 6$ * 1.635bn = $9.81bn / 1.4 to the gbp = £7 bn /13.5 = 51.9p
So my hope is for 50p per share but that is assuming the 1.635bn holds up and the viscosity is of a suitable standard. A lot of ifs and buts, but one is for sure the upside is too big to be ignored.

I have a distinct feeling this is Noices Off in the background. The selling off of the tax credits and useing the money to clear all non trading debt off the books is an indication of that. There is a deal going on i feel sure. Just how big we will only find out in time and who with i can only surmise. Because of the number of share is issue i cannot see any deal being more than maybe 50p top end and even that i think is hopeful. Personally i would be quite happy with a 20 bagger from here. GLA

i am still positive because if there was anything untoward cropping up i am sure MB would have said something. The quietness is becasue this is now a waiting game. Yes at some point 30 days was mentioned for minister to sign and looks as if he / they are going to use all of those 30 days. We are obviously dealing with a country where time stands still and means nothing. Frustrating to see POO at $75 + and no action but it will come in time i am sure. GLA

In my mind i keep coming back to the selling off of the tax credits and the clearance of debt. I think this is a preparation toward something quite big. The question i ask is why now and why clear down the debt. I think it opens up the way to something else otherwise sell them off raise bit more money from an issue and drill again. But now sell off and clear debt i think it makes attractive for a take over. Maybe i am reading too much into this but only time will tell.

We have been told it will be with us by end of Q2. We have also been told that it has been agreed with MPRAM and is now with minister awaiting signature. We have also been that this is all it is a signature. It appears that we have jumped through all the hoops and are now waiting on the paper. MB has made it very clear that Mongolia have their processes and we are observing their processes and protocols. It will come just a matter of patience. Obviously Q2 end is fairly fluid partly i suppose because of Covid and partly that time in the sense as we imagine it is just another number over there. MB is unlikely to break his cover on this for ffear of blotting his copy book with the locals. I would suggest that at the moment quietly quietly catchee monkey.

Assuming no RNS tomorrow morning it would appear that Q2 was a fairly fluid affair the question is just how fluid. If we do not get the announcement this week then i would hope that we will get the announcement next week. Otherwise i really would hope that MB would give us an update and clarification. GLA

Thanks for that information. I think the issuance of the EL and when it arrives leaves open a number of strategies and combine that with the fact drilling may not begin till next March. We have not had the RNS yet althouh it is still not the end of the quarter there are only 2 days to go and we have seen how badly the shares re-act if this RNS does not drop by Thursday morning and from what i can tell we do not seem to get many RNS's on a Thursday or Friday.
1) Ride out the whole storm with you have got and wait for the big rise when it arrives.
2) Sell some of your shares now and hope to buy back when the SP falls which i am sure it will if the RNS and EL does not arrive this week.
3) Just top up a bit more as this price falls till the RNS arrives. Just do not miss the boat as it will leave very early in the morning when it does decide to go.
With a relatively defined drilling period from March to November there is a chance this share will fall shortly after all the announcements and excitement this year and settle back to an acceptable post EL SP figure adn then buy back again in Feb/March just before work recommences. So option of selling up part of the holding and buying back at a lower price later on. Risky as again when the boat leave it will leave early and quickly and you do not want to miss it.
Everybody for their own decisions GLA. It will be a very interesting summer and autumn that is for sure.

If drilling starts next year as you anticipate which would be the month to start. In March or would it be April. I assume the ground would be too hard and the weather too harsh for Jan/February and again would they knock at end of October when winter kicks in again.

Assuming that we MB has arranged a JV and finance our way through the drilling in place and we can start this year. How long or rather when is the last date for drilling before winter starts is it around end of October or earlier and when does the drilling season start again would that be beginning of March or beginning of April.

I do not think we were told a day just that they had been approved and were with minister for signature. My thinking is the results were already known for year and most of the RNS was on the EL and not the results is the document had only just been approved and handed to minister recently. So who knows how long.

Would not dispute your figures but would add afew things that will affect your calculations either way.
1) Price of Oil in 2011 averaged around $95 a barrel and now just $70 a barrel
2) Time value of money in the last 10 years makes your valuations by my estimate to be 61p
3) The percentage of number shares to free float now as opposed to 10 years ago would surely affect the price and by and large this is going to be determined by any big pension institutions that start to become involved i would think.
4) Finally whether the markets perception of risk and how it calculates it has changed. But yes i would certainly hope for >50p and very possibly sooner than one may think.

Do not dispute your figures at all and makes perfect sense just would add a few other factors that would affect the SP

1)

The other point is that if they were to issue an EL now would be the time to do it. Am not sure how long it would take to mobilise a land based rig etc but with oil at >70$bb and possibly climbing much higher now would be time to capitalise. Some talk of it hitting $100$bb but imo this would not be for long if at all as opec will just up production and prices would come crashing back down again to around this level as i am not sure if the world ecoonomy could sustain oil prices at those levels for long without massive inflation. however having said that for the unscrupulous that inflation would be good as it reduces the level of Covid debt as a percentage to GDP and make their numbers look better than it actually is. Personally i think this rapid V curve on oil prices is short term and will fall back fairly quickly when opec step up production.

I have been following the posts on here with interest over the last week or so. Obviously i was wrong about the RNS about 10 days ago now. We rarely get RNS's on thursdays or Fridays, but having said that i have been wrong before and hope to wrong again, so that would be it now till next Monday. The one exception would be a very price sensitive RNS could come out on Friday afternoon possibly but doubtful, imo.
There seem to be two lines of thought here one is this is basically one great big scam to get our money. Personally i am in for a fair number of shares and have got my fill but non of it has gone to the company but to the MM's who have been playing this share like a banjo for last 6 months i have been involved. So if it is a scam the company cannot be too involved. or it is the best scam of all time lasting well over 10 years or so.
The alternative is that we are in the box seats and there is just a delay in until the main act turns up. But again two thought those who think this is going to come imminently and those who think that Mongolia are drawing this out till their refinery is finished in i believe 2023 and if anything like major capitol projects over here then yo could talking 2024/25 as they want to make sure they get the best of all worlds.
I am prepared to wait another 10 and possible a few days into the following week as that is the end of the second quarter and a short over spill into the third quarter. I would expect to hear some news by then one way or the other. Infact i would expect something positive as by now we should have heard if there was any further delays i would have hoped.
So in quick summary my benefit of the doubt goes to MB but it is wearing thin.

Let's be honest this is a relatively high risk, high reward share especially as there are only 700m shares compared with other companies in the billions. How long it remains that way is any bodies guess. We are dealing with a foreign country that is not known for trading with the west is bordered on one side by China and another by Russia both known for playing their cards close to their chest. We have assurances from the Mongolian government and our CEO that things are progressing that is all we have other than a few words in Mongolian that only a few on here understand. So bottom line is this is a bit of binary gamble until that EL is granted then the lid could blow off the bottle. At the moment we are valued around £52m but what have we got at the moment very little. But one piece of paper changes all of that. The share price is probably not helped by MB and his (i hope) conservative projections of 33m barrels about 20% of the 165mbb field. If 33mbb is all we can get from a 20 year license i would be disappointed. My experience of CEO's is they come in two sizes. The optimist who will sell you the sky is blue all the time and then those who are more pragmatic about it all and can come over as negative although that is not what they mean. I think MB comes into that category from my listerning so i am taking the 33mmbb as a minimum and not a maximum. Given that that logic tells us that a RNS on the EL should have been two days ago it would be nice if MB could give us an update just to let us know where we stand. I think the markets reflect the times we live in. A new post pandemic era if you like PC1 (ie 1st year post pandemic) the markets are a lot more risk averse and whilst penny shares will always be around and at the moment with interest rates being zero or next to zero some people are prepared to gamble with some of their savings on penny shares and they are a bit of binary gamble. My personal view this is a binary gamble but with chances of success a lot greater than 50% and that makes it a worthwhile punt but that is all it is. Be honest this is not investing no matter how much research you do this is gambling the question is how big and how many black numbers there are against number of red numbers. So i got in at around 3.5p for a chunk and i reckon if it pulls over it will be 10 fold reasonably quickly or it could be 1p if unlucky. Personally think the numbers are black rather than red. Once the EL is granted then it becomes an investment share and the whole criteria changes imo.

Qtr 2 ends in a few weeks not a few days. I think this is all being resolved now otherwise MB would have issued a statement. A meeting was held so we have gleaned from posts on this site last week. Assuming we were discussed as i am not sure what else in on the agenda right now then if there had been more questions it would have come out so i am hoping that it has been issued and awaiting a signature from the minister. There are probably protocols and procedures for this as well but would be surprised if we did not hear something either way shortly.