Member Info for Ibiza28

I agree that £1 a share is unlikely but also i do not believe it is impossible. Not if we find oil this time round and the price of Brent rising all the time . If we find (big if) 1Bn barrels plus and with what we have that would make 6bn barrels give or take then a buy out at 3$ a barrel (a small percentage of Brent oil price) we are at 18bn and 1.35 to the dollar brings very close to £1 a share and that is before any one brings in our gas holdings. We will not reach it without a buy out but i am not betting it on too much i will completely de-risk at some point and may leave the rest in to find out whether dreams do happen.

At some point our gas findings will start to come in to play. At the moment i gather the fields are very marginal but if prices keep rising as they are then surely our holding starts to retain some value. I am still hopeful of a large upside here but that is very dependent on this drill being a success. I really hope they are properly financed for this and not only partly financed.

I always worked on around 15bn shares in this will put us there almost exactly. With 3.4bn barrels already if we find a minimum of 4bn barrels and may if we get the top end 5bn and that makes us a pretty attractive proposition and at 4p a share would put us at a market cap of 600m around the same as Pantheon. Now the idea of one glass two straw went around some time ago with basically the idea of first come first served line and that rather amused me. Yes that maybe what a court may decide but would a company take another one knowing there is very likely to be a court case that could months or even years to unwrangle as i think any attempt by Pantheon would meet litigation from our end and vice versa. A far better suggestion would be for us to consolidate our shares down the roughly same number as Pantheon and still same MC and then merge the two companies. My thinking is with our oil and their oil in much the same area we could demand a far higher price than may come up from either buying both companies or buying one and pilching the oil of the other and any potential court case. Just a thought and wonder if it has crossed either companies mind . Maybe set up a seperate enterprise for just those assets that merge. The synergy effect i think would be far greater than the sum of the parts.

If 2.7 - 2.9 is going to look like paradise you are expecting some bad news and shares will plummet that is the way 2.7 will look like paradise. If that is what you meant i really hope you are wrong

Does anybody have an idea as to what our market cap could become. We are imo very under cooked here but this is an all or nothing share. The question is i have no ideas as what all would be. If i compare with another oil company that i know is also undervalued for what they have then our share price could easily become >25p quite easily ie 225m but obviously that depends on rig we can secure and or any deal with Petro china. Even then i do not know what we can reach by April/ May of next year after that any ones guess. What are people thoughts as to our current market cap should be and what it could be come. All thoughts would be appreciated.

How do we know it is a sell if it is unknown of 1m at 2.83 strikes me as a buy and and a sell. Too high a price for a selll when all the others were going at 2.77

How do you reach 50$ a barrell i have not seen this sort of number mentioned it would in my opinion make this well very marginal especially witht the royalty and taxes that will need to be paid to the Mongolian govt.

Where do i find this and how to sign i assume.

This is an AIM account and anything is possible especially here as we have so few shares in issue (at the moment). MB seemed pretty up bouyant at the presentation not so long ago now and there is still 5 months to go. I have what i need down and see no reason to change horses now.
There are a lot of questions that need answers and at some point those will get answered i hope. Preferably sooner rather than later.
The questions that i have are:
Can we get a rig and how long for
What terms are with the rig any oil we do exploit. ie Royalties/tax to Mong govt.
How are we managing the logistics of oil from the well head to refinery.
What do we need to pay Petro China
Who are big investors - This does puzzle me if they are not on board yet is there an event that needs to happen to bring them on board othewise what is stopping them. My feeling is this might be a bit of catch 22.
There are a lot of questions that need answering and i would hope we will get answers soon.
Must admit if we do start to get information by middle of January my feet will getting a bit cold like the weather on this share. Trust MB is reading this BB and will provide few answers quickly. GLA

IMO whilst there are six months to go before anything starts to hapen this share will remain as a traders share. It will go up a bit and then the traders will sell off make their small profit wait for the dip buy in again and rinse and repeat. the good news in my view is that this will only last for so long. We have comparatively few shares issued 900m as opposed to billions by other companies. and as long as this continues then as the news starts to come out hopefully a reasonably steady flow soon then this share price will rise expnentially and eventually the teflon hands will get worn down and become sticker at that point this will become far less of a traders share and far more on an investors share with a larger proportion in sticker hands. They will hang on till they have got a share price they need or are happy with. So on the way up their will be ups and downs whilst there are people taking their profit. But at some point there will be people falling over themselves for this share and will spiral very quickly. When i have absolutely no idea i am just hoping to god it does and that MB and team know what they are doing. GLA

Let's monetise what we know is there as quickly as possible but must admit 1000-2000 meters down seems a long way to me (over a mile below ground) but assuming we managed to get there is first place i would hope we can get there second time round. Especially with price of oil as it is. Let;s get in before opec come and increase production.
Once we get a few bits of information that hopefully is being sorted as we write this share will make the 7-8p we had a few months ago look like a blur in the rear view mirror. GLA

Is it me or is this abnormally quiet for news. Must admit i would have thought we would have heard something by now. Am i being too hopeful that something may be brewing in the back ground.

Actually i think it is a very good question and i was wondering the same. Must admit i assumed that MB had mentioned this some time ago but was not sure. Does anyone know what the royalty percentage tax take or whatever you want to call it we need to pay over to Mon Gov as he says it rather signifcant part of the overall calculation that and of course any farm out calculation.

Brent oil knocking on door of $82 a barrell and possibly climbing. GLA

Am i right in understanding that Merlin 2 is not an exploratory well but an appraisal one. That means we know there is oil there but just trying to quantify, qualify etc what is there. I thought we were hoping to find a whole new structure hence the fact this is Merlin 2 and not Merlin 1 1/2 so to speak.

I have been looking at two other companies i am involved in to a greater or far lesser extent. One has a shares in issue of 15.5bn the other shares in issue of 700m far nearer to the number we have. Now i know it is very difficult comparing like with like all depends on what has been found where and also the politics which seems to be of growing importance. However regardless what is found the fact is that we have the lowest market value by a considerable amount and not only have we found it we are going to exploit it very shortly. Our market cap is >25m the one with the largest shares has market cap of >10 times that and the one with lowest shares has a market cap of > 430m. Personally i think that we are on the ground floor of fast elevator waiting to fill up could take a few months but then it will fly up fairly quickly (no very quickly) provided of course they do strike the oil they have found. If they do not then i do not think i need to say any more. If we were to have a market cap of almost £450m then we would be looking at close to 50p. And i think that is potentially just the beginning. Must admit i will be well out at that point though.
Now either we are on the ground floor of something very big or have very successfully been sold a complete pup.

It is the middle end of September. The snow is falling in Alaska and the ice roads are reforming. We have raised an extra $20m give ortake. COP seem to have been caught with their hand in the cookie jar and been very firmly told to remove it. But still no news of a rig or rig operator. No news of a JV partner and no news of a take over (wishful thinking) in fact no news at all. Should we not have had some news by now on this or is there a game of brinkmanship brewing in the background. I just wish i knew.

Did not know we were expecting any more results.

I see the other channel in the US are suggesting that as we are next door so to speak and flavour of the month or led to believe that COP may consider mergiing with us. Would be interesting.

It came to me while i was away that if we (88e) intend to drill this winter should we not be starting to try and move on this. I am not an expert on this but surely it takes experience and expertise to drill for oil in deep frozen north plus find and mobilize a rig etc.
We have 14m asd in the bank ie approx 10m usd. I am not sure how much we need to drill but reading this site i would reckon it is a hell of a lot more than £10m usd. Not everyone ie workers etc are going to want to be paid in shares so i would have thought we be trying to talk up the market price for a placement but no we have heard nothing since the RNS update and have allowed the price to drift down with the not surprisingly equivocal news on COP court case.
The only alternative thought is that us drilling is a euphanism for someone drilling on our land this winter. And not worried about the share price because that is still being negotiated. Maybe i am completely wrong but would have thought that someone would have moved to push this price up a bit if a placement is required.