Member Info for Ibiza28

MEM i must be misunderstanding somewhere so let me explain my calculations and then you can tell me where i am going wrong.

1bn usd reduce by ONHYM share of 25% gives 750musd. Exchange rate currently 1.275 give or take £588.2. Current shares in issue 570.2m plus 10m in warrants to come through at 12.5p (4 * 2.5m shares) you get 580m shares, Ok so slightly more than £1 per share. That is how i arrive at £1 per share. This is important to my maths so please explain where i am wrong. I am only going by information i have read and think i understand.

Thank you Keith and MEM i understand now and thought they looked a bit too high. But something tells me that £1 PS per TCF is just a bit low or just seems a bit low.

I have been doing a bit of looking at Africa Gaz whilst they are not small nor are they big enough to cope with everything we may potentially have.

They will cope happily with the CNG for Morocco and also a small amount of excess but dealing with potential multiple TCF's is going require someone with deep pockets and AG with all due respect is not that big.

So we come to PG's line which I and a number of others picked up on last RNS about M&A and partial divestment leads me to think Pg will announce deal with AG on testing results (positive) This sale either in full or leaving some stub equity would give SP a boost and effectively de risk the rest of the share regarding the next part of testing. The second;part of testing would then be silent and left till the end to get results out so as to be sure that we fully understand the amount and extent what maybe there. It could be enormous. It has the potential to be enormous so if found and proven then it will need someone with far deeper pockets than AG (all due respect to AG). Exxon trust you are paying attention at the back of the class, 1bn per 100bcf = for 6TCF discounts given $60bn discounts will be recognised given on size. And if as suggested this could reach 19TCF then well i wonlt let my numbers go that far. If that happened some people with shares on here could reach the size of GDP of some small economies.

Must admit i thought this might be a tight testing period but i think yesterdays remarkably positive RNS that and my belief this company needs to get the SP up indicates to me at least that we will be getting news as it comes off the printer so to speak.

So on that basis with Testing having started Wednesday how long to first set of results. I think we will know on Tuesday morning that would be 4 -5 days of testing and as everything is pretty well just below the surface here We will get told if gas is flowing and if not the flame that would need to be there would indicate a lot wouldn't it

I tend to agree there will be a raise in order to test thoroughly whole area and use some of that or issue a few shares but at a much higher paice than we have now. Possibly in way of a rights isssue but at much higher price than now and therefore just a few million shares. Something like 20m at 75p would give them £15m and leave the Share Cap around the 600m mark after warrants.

Watch out for a lot of RNS's over next month and also anything LB may come up with on X

I do no think they would need to Trini and Ireland as i belief they are three different companies. So just sell Morocco.

I was used to dealing with big numbers at work but even these numbers are starting to get mind numbing so i am just sitting back and hope to bail out something by end of October and then leave the rest for another time.

So we we have 12 pc unrisked 5.9tcf that is risked makes around 50TCF at estimates floating around here let us say that is just big by anyones standards.

Then add on 8 other fields that are probably active especially if this is.

Then add on the oil that has not even been mentioned much that has to be there. Oil and Gas are like Brother and Sister. But doubt if they share the same bedroom.

Then there is the half sister Helium

Then there is Ireland

Then briinging up the rear is Trinidad which seems small in comparison but on its own my view is it validates this current SP or will validate this SP in near future.

And as is the law of London buses You wait for one and then three all come at once.

I am guessing and agree with some on here this is just the beginning of an information overload.

My feeling is that xmas is going to be a very happy xmas and does not matter how many shares you have.

I am no expert on shorting shares but i would certainly not want to short this share there are just far too many vaiables to take into account.

1) TT could on its own bat in a short period of time underwrite the value of this share on its own. 570m shares 10p per Share MC of £57m not impossible from TT i would reckon.

2) Ireland. They have been kicking this can (energy crisis) down the street for a long time now. The street is beginning to run out imo and tend to think that minds have not been focused on energy crisis in middle of summer when temperatures are in 20's - 30's. But holidays over and winter being around the corner i think the issue will only rear its head very quickly in the new term.

3) Morocco what more needs to be said. This is a lot more than just a bit of cream on top of the bun. This is the whole enchilada.

So upside absolutely massive and downside either nothing or negligible. Shorting this share would be madness imo and in spreadbetting it potentially even more dangerous.

There seems to be some difference here in calculations. Reports here that 100 bcf is approx a £1 a share much in line in prevous calculations some months ago now granted that 1 TCF was approx £10 and coming down on a sliding scale but i am not sure if that was taking a DCF on it which would imply exploiting it ourselves. I think this size we will sell on and keep a bit of Stub Equity. Say 10%.

~Here i was thinking i was being wildly optimistic at £10 a share so much so i woke up and went back to bed or rather had a cold shower. Now i am not so sure.

"the Jurassic MOU-5 structure gives net P50 upside Prospective Resources for gas of 5.916 TCF to the Company"

Just been reading this again. almost 6TCF to the company is that after the 25%ie the real amount is 8TCF because if it is even more frightening.

I am beginning to see what GRH and others have been harping on about and i have a feeling this is only just scratching the surface. Now i am going to have a cold shower. lol GLA

OMG just as you thought they had gone for good they come back again in a bad rash. Green Boxes.!!!

it was the last paragraph that caught my attention

the company is debt-free which allows it to have greater flexibility when considering different options, including m&a transactions and a partial divestment, for the modest levels of development finance required for "first gas". this is why afriquia gaz remains heavily engaged with the company and supportive of our efforts to get gas to market at the very earliest opportunity."

there is obviously something happening behind the scenes other than a lot of sitting around on ****s. the m&a and partial divestment. i wonder.

AV

I know you are troll and like talk everything down but why a placement. What makes you believe that or is just you causing trouble again.

Silverfoil

That is the $64k question. come to think of it i would settle for 64p SP right now.

As we sit here debating the semantics of when testing is not testing time is going by. And by my reckoning we are down to around a fortnight from tomorrow. It may come next week but i really think it will be the week after.

In time we will find out if PG has played a blinder or whether he has been sitting on his backside the last two months waiting for something to happen.

Personally i think he is in the middle of playing the innings of his lifetime and i would ingnore TT at your peril. I have always believed that the value of the investment here is covered by TT or will be covered by TT. That means that given time i have a free ride on Morocco. Anyway that is my belief.

Silverfoil

That is always the way and will be for considerable while. I think in time this will change if Trump's "America First" continues to be "America Only" after the elections and that will cause ruptions throughout the world and eventually a change in leadership of western world. All empires come to an end i think we maybe watching the beginning of the end of the US empire.

I cannot help but feel that if PG could find his way to releasing some good news very shortly this share will soar. After the sea of red yesterday across the world markets there must be a lot of money looking for a home somewhere so a bit of good news could see this SP go up considerably. One caveat would be it would have to be sustainable good news otherwise pointless.

"The early stages of the Sandjet rigless testing programme have commenced with the arrival of some well services equipment at the MOU-3 well site and the preparation of the well for re-entry and perforating."

My understanding of the above taken from the June 6th RNS says that testing has started some time ago. Personally i am happy with that. does not say will or should but has started.

Liveinhope

I know there are a lot of B's in between the M's and T's and that deliberate i highlight the difference. I think the discovery will come in the B's and i would hope somewhere in the 100's rather than 10's but we will see.

Thank you Keith , as i expected not exactly completely clear cut. So let us not ramp this up any more than we have to and let the find and management sort itself out. The RNS could come this week must admit i favourite is anytime from 12th August through to end of the month.

This is starting to get a bit of an issue and is IMO a bit of red herring.

But there is one thing that i am uncertain of and wonder if the main people on here might know. At what point does what we find become a discovery. Because if everything is a discovery to pay $1m dollars would be a hell of a lot for a few MCF's and completely uneconomical i would reckon. But for a couple TCT it would be well worth while.

There does not seem to be a sliding scale so where is the cut off between a find a discovery.

Or is every find a discovery and if we find a small amount we might as well not have found anything.

As regards the $1m dollar fee forget it as it will not come into unless we have something signficant so a bit like someone going to the bank saying i want to borrow £100k and the BM saying what is your collateral and i say i have this house worth £10m . the answer would be yes sir no problem.