Member Info for Ibiza28

They have it down as a sell but price is wrong imo.

This is very unusual these companies do not take risks or chances unless they think the in price is pretty well guaranteed as the minimum out price then they might and it would be a small percentage of their overall portfolio. To me this means 4p is absolutely the bottom value, spud and critical time lines are imminent and most important the risk reward is immense and CoS very possibly a lot better than 12%. Personally don't think 50 but I really don't care anymore with the advent of He this could be worth sane again as any gas found. One thing is forsure in a few months we could be making Creesus look like a pauper or we will be paupers. I notice all my trolls have gone home. Touchwood

These small investment houses generally do not gamble or flyers and I would reckon have done extensive research maybe with Scorpion directly to confirm PG s claims on timings and numbers and worked their own Co s and like the numbers.

We are now at the starting line waiting for the set call and then the gun. Everyone starting to position themselves those not in trying to push prices down to get in cheaper. Others happy with what they have got. Gun goes off soon

We are at the business end of this PG has run out of excuses to delay this even further.

So mind without wanting to get too far ahead wonders monetisation of this share. If we go it alone this will not go up on its own. PG own attitude and behaviour along with the trolls and market makers will keep this well below its true value for a long time.

What I would like to see is mou 3 swabbed and flowing. Agreement with AG signed and from that money issue a SD hopefully around 20p plus per share that should de risk everyone then enjoy the ride of mou5 unhindered. 20p dividend on eststimated new SC arklound £144m 200m usd net to PRD. The chances oc getting it are as remote of pigs flying.mù

What is would like to see (but probably will not get) is definitive time flow of events and news for both February and March. I am prepared to accept that medium to long term plans can get adjusted working in foreign countries but short events should be under our control.

Mou 3 swabbing date

Mou 3 date that gas has flowed

Mou 3 confirmation what the flow rate is. My understanding this might be 10 days after end of swabbing.

If agreement AG in place I would hope signature to that agreement should on shortly.

Date of Mou 5 starting

Date by which we find if we have commercial gas.

After that will depend on what we find. Assuming we do. GLA

I suspected we would be getting another RNS after the news yesterday of the new website. As someone said dressing the shopwindow. But it could also be trying to make Mutton look like lamb.

I do not like the raise and would far rather have seen Mou 3 tested and sold on to fund Mou 5 and that tested and sold on to fund Mou 6 etc. Now it the A typical O&G penny share that is a life style and at this rate a life time share. If Mou 3 does not flow and Mou 5 is a duster then Mou 6 is probably a non starter but we will nevertheless drill it because this is Paul's hobby and we have privelege to fund his hobby and when some one here get annoyed about it and have the temerity to call PG out on it he basically insults them in a presentation.

I really hope PG remembers who the main participants are in this and funding his pet hobby. He says he will but at the moment it is hard to have a great deal of faith in what PG says. But to be fair he did not actually lie during the presentation he was very particular about what he referred and let us make the decision on what he meant. We were and far fully funded for Mou5, This is for Mou 6. Personally i would argue much the same but an extension of Mou 5 therefore just being economic with the truth. I did have asmall top up when it dropped today. I still think we are in for a pay day albeit a diluted one.

My word Keith you really have stirred up a hornets nest. Makes me think you may be somewhere near the mark. Time will tell.

I am getting Green boxes today. I would have thought they would give it a rest for a day.

My thinking is that everything is beginning to brew up nicely coming to a crescendo around the end of June although it might be a bit of lingering before the end.

Ireland and CS is a now or never (IMO). the government need to act on this very shortly and there seems to be only one player in town. Us.

Morocco is coming together it looks, finally, Mou 3 has been drilled and tested. There is gas it just has not flowed yet. We are told it will flow and i believe that CoS of this are in the region of 80%.

Although not the same Geology i understand but Mou 5 is close by and is potentially massive. CoS of striking something is 50% however there is the chance we strike the jackpot and there seem to be the possibility that the jackpot could pay out twice. Once if we strike the 4.4TCF (1in8 chance.) and again if the He content proves up. The He could again bring in the same value as the 4.4TCF and that in it self would a jackpot win.

I am not sure what there is not to like.

Is it guaranteed NO but if you like the odds you would mad not to be in this. If you do not like the odds then i would recommend you get out now. Take your losses and live to breath another day.

That is the way of these shares. Place your money and take your bets.

For some it could mean an early retirement, for others it could mean have a very pleasant last few years and for others it could be transformational for the family. Everyone has there hopes their aspirations and also their limits and the secret is not to go beyond your limit.

Just box him. I have and i do not bother in opening it either.

Waste of time.

Everyone has very valid points and personally I would want mou3 swabbed first but no one has come out with an over whelming argument that this higher or lower risk than any other O&G except of course there are three strands to this bow. Because Morocco is so massive the main concentration is there. Dropping to 1p i doubt unless we have a massive dillusion of the shares. But if we have £1.36 risked price why have we not got that. Mainly i would guess no gas yet.

BRV

thanks very much for this but can i just check is this a transcript of the last Q&A in the latest podcast it is just that there are couple items which seem very similar to the previous one

The bit about Ireland i remember from the previous one but this one just referred to the change of government and the meeting he was going to have very shortly.

Also the Morocco bit about drilling by first week of Feb with SV101 just seems out of place in this timeline.

I do not what to make of it 1.9m buys and 5k of sales and SP drops 1.6% It was a similar story Friday and i cannot see any sign that some of the buys are wrong. By now the pressure of buying would have moved this upward. I presume that at some point it will have to as the shares run out. I really expect that at some point this share will leap forward in one quantum leap prior spud.

If Mou 5 comes in who is going to care about the "money wasted on Mou 1 2 and 4 but if Mou 5 does not come in then we will all worry about Mou 1 2 and 4 but even then get over it. These share and these companies are all a gamble and wrap it how you like in language that makes it sound like an investment, at the end of the day it is a gamble. Admittedly an educated gamble but there is no guarantee hence a SP of 6p. When Mou 3 flows and Mou 5 flows then this will change significantly if they do not then your share certificates would make good confetti. But then we are not a one horse pony we have got Ireland and in time TT should come near to maintaining current SP.

BRV

Many many thanks for your painstaking work. Really is much appreciated.

Even makes it easier for the Trolls to read.

There are at the moment as i see it four separate events that will all support this Share Price at its current event so any one of them failing will have an impact to a degree. The larger the prospect the greater the fall if it fails. One failing does not mean all fail and alternatively one succeeding does not mean all will succeed.

Mou 3 - Swabbing around 60-80% CoS

Mou 5 Between 12 - 50 CoS

Ireland You put your own CoS on this as it is still an almost complete unknown.

TT Waxing Treatment at the moment it sounds promising but i am not sure what CoS to put on this. Still new.

TT

If the Waxing works then TT cash flows will do the most important thing and that is cover the overheads for the company i feel. Leaving any surplus monies to be invested in the drilling. Just a shame it has taken this long to here.

Ireland

If Ireland comes off with Vermillion breathing down our necks for a deal this i think could be up around 20 -50p per share on current estimated No of shares to be in issue (ie IMO around 675m) That is a market value of Ireland of £135m to £337.5m.

Mou 3 - I think this will if the swabbing works be around the 20p - 50P and maybe even more. on the Share price.

Mou 5 This one is the big one. It could be anything from 1 TCF through to 6 TCF net to PRD. And that is before any value of He. Obviously the bigger the prize the lower CoS. Not quite like playing the Lottery as a lot of the ground work has been covered and we have a good idea which balls are likely to land, This one over time ie through 2025 and into next year and possibly 2027 could reach beyond a lot of peoples imagination.

Special Dividends.

Normal Investment management companies estimate returns of between 2-3% over the whole of one portfolio. Individual dividends vary from 5% to 8% returns. Some may even exceed that. So for a 1P dividend that would mean a SP of between 12.5p to 20p per share..

Special dividends have a different return. This would be 10% to up 50% of the value of the share price at the top end. So a 20p special dividend could mean a SP of between 40p to £2. ie 10 times SP to just double the SP. Much of this will be decided by the markets and our reaction ot the dividend when it arrives. It will also be driven by the deal that PG has done as that would the catalyst for the value of the dividend and value of the company.

Once the dividend has been issued the SP would fall back down to perceived and actual value of the company after issue of the share.

So if you think SP will fall greater than the value of the dividend sell if you think that the SP will fall less than the dividend hang on and then think of selling.

This will be your market and their will be many people on here trying to influence which way to jump. If Mou 5 comes in I will personally always want to keep a bit of skin in the game because it will be a completely free ride by then but again depends

Hopefully we are and energy are high up the agenda.

I think that million might have been a sell the price was low enough for that.

The question i have is are we going to be using the right equipment to drill Mou 5 are we using the best expedient because we cannot get the best for what ever reason.

Having Zenith doing the testing is great but the main problem is the logistics of all this and that as far as i can tell is down to PG and PG alone.

You can have the greatest craftsman but if he does not have the right tools it is unlikely to be a masterpiece