Member Info for Ibiza28

IJWT

Makes some very good points Basically i think Paul is a very good Geologist but as a CEO he falls a long way short of the mark. there is a thin dividing line between being frugal with money and being miserly with money.

One is being careful with the money and the other is being careful to the detriment of the business. I am worried that Paul is starting to confuse the two and maybe using the wrong equipment for the drilling. It has been obvious since the first set of mistakes back in Oct 23 that we needed a CEO with organisational capabilities and logistical background. I have no qualm or problems with Paul as scientist or a Geologist but to he is proving to be out of his depth in trying to bring this to fruition. And because of that we have had delay and problems one way or another and that has wasted a lot of money rather than saved a lot of money.

Now we should come to ahead in March but to be honest i think there will be another set of excuses and we will miss again. Either wrong equipment or something will not be right or have been brought together at the same time.

Trying to manage the time flow of projects is a real skill set and one that looks easy till you try and do it. Paul is finding out the hard way and this SP is suffering because of it.

What is keeping us here is the sheer size of this prize that we are looking at. Let us just hope that Feb really does do it all.

if we are a de rsiked share price of £1.36 a share and currently standing at 6.5p per share and falling you would think we would wide open to a buy out from someone.

the reason we are not is because this is not a de risked sp but a valuation put on the company by its in house pet poodle.

i cannot understand that if the swabbing is on site why delay mou 3 why does it have to wait for mou 5.

no production to shout about from tt also disappointing (to put it mildly). i thought we had got a good deal out of this from ceg but now beginning to think ceg got the good deal (and that ****es me off)

nothing seems to happen on time with pg would hate to have him fix up my dental appointments. could wait forever for drilling to start.

am in to the end but my end may come sooner at this rate of progress. this is beginning to get a old day

spanish when "manana manana" did not mean tomorrow morning but more like the "never never". please paul just once keep to one of the timetables.

It would be nice if some of those who know about Swabbing could give us an insight as to the process and the timings involved. I have that the unit has its own specialist team that come with it. I assume that is because the unit requires specialist knowledge and that would augmented i would guess by Zenith Energy.

So i am thinking that assuming the unit arrived around midday today that it should be ready to start on saturday morning if not earlier. Would swabbing process like drilling be a 24/7 exercise or would be conducted so to speak through normal working hours. what are the steps and could we get results before the presentation of the fact that we have it flowing or not rather than the rate it is flowing which i believe would take a week or so longer.

hat a

If Mou 3 was a duster why have we waited for a swabbing unit. Makes no sense to me. Personally i would have thought anounce and move on but then maybe it was and that is why Lonny left or was eased out.

My thinking (assuming our intel is correct) that we are not going to get an RNS about the swabbing equipment now being on site. I think that PG reckons that since he has not made any announcement since the start of testing this is effectively a continuation of that process. Therefore the outside markets do not know anything and also why the current SP is not really moving. I would reckon this PG saying you stay with us and you will be rewarded (i hope) . It is however very possible we will get an RNS just before the presentation either on the mornng of 23rd or even after the market closed RNS the swabbing and other matters. Doubt if flow rates will be established but we will know it is flowing I believe. GLA i think we deserve a bit.

I agree first things first and i was not advocating that we need or should be funding infrastructure. Too long a lead time between discovery and cash flow for now.

I think we agree but it is our difference of understanding or use of terminology. If you mean proving up the asset from the testing then yes. But if you mean literally getting the gas out of the ground and off to the market which is what i understand from getting it out of the ground then i think that is best left to a major.

We do not have the money to put into infrastructure to get this gas to the market. But if we test and prove up Mou 5 so that a major comes in then yes i think we agree but different terminology. We do need to prove up the asset for sure and hopefully that will be very soon.

I do not think that Predator will extract this gas certainly not in this size of field. My reckoning is it will get sold on to a multinational, or JV of multinationals or even a collaboration of a multinational and a government given the need for countries to secure energy supply. It is a matter of finding one prepared to think ahead and think outside of the box.

So when we get something out of the ground is not really relevant. With the Geo political situation as it is and the shutting down of gas through Ukraine this could play out very nicely for us as gas prices must be going up.

Thank you Keith very helpful and i always felt that there was something missing.

Look i have little knowledge of this industry so i try and augment it and the trouble with little knowledge is it often all wrong. But i looked up swabbing and found that it only has 30/40 % success rate which considering that one knows there is gas down there (otherwise why swab) seems to be a very low success rate.

Would those who do know a lot more than i do care to explain why i should feel a lot more confident than this and also if it does not work what is the next step and how expensive is that likely to be and if it were you would you be prepared for the next step now or would you just wait before thinking of the next option.

Thank you am not sure how that is known but great news.

My understanding is Swabbing should take 3 or four days. and then another week / 10 days to ascertain flow rate if any.

So bad news by end of next week and if not flow test results by early February is that a fair estimate for Mou 3.

Sorry have i missed something is the swabbing unit a week away. I heard on here if it is right that it was coming 25th Jan and not 17th / 18th.

Seeing as all deals are done in dollars now would be a really good time to have a deal announced with a rate of 1.23 to the pound. Wishful thinking probably.

I would not be at all surprised if there was a split in NATO with US pulling out or being elbowed out on fall out over Greenland and then what would be Eurto European treaty Organisation agreeing full support of UIkraine. Ie Europe v Russia under a new treaty agreement.

If Trump wants out of NATO he is making a b*****y good go of it with threats to Greenland. Lammy sitting on the fence is going to isolate us either way.

I would tend to agree that PG will be fairly busy at the moment. Just hold all your thoughts of mutiny till we hear what he has to say on the 23rd or in any RNS that i think will be issued on the day or so before hand.

Yes things have slipped but this is a small O&G company and not a major operating in a foreign land with probably contradictory agendas.

But yes i agree that time is important as is how much and i have a feeling that a lot is going to happen between now and 23rd Jan. With a cold winter in store for Europe and rapidly diminishing gas reserves because there is now no Russian gas coming through from Russia it is going to focus the mind of a lot of countries. I would hope that Morocco is one,

Just a bit more patience is required and this could come good a lot quicker than people may think because the Geo Political situation will push it. GLA

I have just been re reading the RNS from the 30th. This is all a red herring in my view to keep us interested until we start testing. It is all potential based on world averages on finds of gas. nothing concrete as yet and hopefully that will be a lot more solid information regarding this on the presentation.

So having re read this i would tend to agree with KO to leave this well alone until we get more information. At the moment just a tantalising tit bit of information and no more than that.

The fact that Mou 3 clean up is about the same time that Mou 5 is starting is not a coincidence i think. I would like to think the speculation from the various sources that something else is going on behind the scences is a very real possibility. From my point of view it looks like that but everyone will read into this "quiet" in their own way.

Now we come to Mou 5 again equipment expected early Feb. (just after presentation) So assuming it arrives on Mon Jan 27th and allowing a couple of days to set up and readiness. Testing should start 29th Jan. And in total will probably take a full month so i would hope we will get results before middle end of March. Inbetween time i am hoping that we will have done a deal on M3 and fully de risked special dividend to keep us going.

Going back to information provided around xmas by dickienichols and of course assuming that that information was accurate but does coincidentally coincide the the presentation on 23rd January. I have prepared a sort of timeline for what may happen over the next 6/7 weeks.

I am not expecting a RNS on swabbing unit for M 3 because that is still an on going event. We never had a RNS saying the testing has finished so when swabbing starts will be just a delay in the testing process. So no RNS (IMO) on start of Swabbing.

swabbing due to arrive on 16 ; jan. Allow time for set up and readiness. Estimate start 18 Jan and should not take long to get down to depth as well has already been drilled and i would assume piping (if needed) still in place.

I believe from earlier posts (I think Keith Oz) that this takes about 3 days. Also assuming we get it flowing. It could take up to 10 days for flow rates to settle down to a norm.

So according to my calculations Swabbing could finish on the 22/1 just before presentation (Coincidence maybe probably just good fortune as the presentation is probably on a fixed date any way months in advance). So on day of presentation we will know if M3 is flowing what we will not know is the flow rates that could be up to 10 days later if my understanding of What KO was saying is accurate.

So assuming the intervening time between October when testing started and January has not been spent day dreaming in Morocco but on going discussions and rolling over agreement (changing dates) up dating prices if significantly different) Then my estimate is that we could have a signed deal with AG the beginning of the week of 3rd or 4th February. I would seriously hope that the intervening time between Oct / Nov 2023 when this was first raised has meant that this agreement is fully resolved now just waiting on amount of gas and the flow rates. And we can guarantee 10 years supply so slot numbers in right place and sign off.

I think we might get an indication of that from the infomercial that is coming out in a few weeks. It will not be direct but read between lines and i think the answer will become clear.

Oh hell that is annoying. I try my best but sometimes struggle to get off the tee especially when it is really windy down here by the coast. A great equaliser of a game so rewarding and yet so frustrating.

A bit like share at times.

GLA