Member Info for Ibiza28

Thank you Keith for your input certainly that bit about a recoverable percentage but i think (although too early to say) the change in the Geo Political situation is going to make this a lot more fluid than we think.

The Egypt deal was one trying to secure energy for the country and as the President said Egypt has scored a goal. I think given the current situation i was say that Egypt was 2 or 3 goals up in any political match.

Ireland and also talking about securing energy supplies for the future and i could well see a country coming in conjunction with a major for our find. Wanting to secure its energy future. Would it all come in one go then no possible not. Ie deal done on two of three stages with a major and large European country (France the most obvious one but given French relationships with some of its former colonies also the least obvious).

Any deal like this would change the nature of this share completely from being a buy and sell share to a buy and hold share as the likely hood of on going future dividends would be much higher.

So thinking this through further the bigger this is and the more uncertain energy supplies are in Ukraine / Russia war or even in a post Ukraine war environment. Every country will start looking at their energy supplies. Oddly enough i think it is the kind of thing i think Labour might look at whether they have the courage of their conviction another issue. It would need to be in conjunction with a major like BP two or three staged payments with options of first refusal of further finds if and when they may occur in Morocco. Just thinking out loud.

Having said all of that I think it unlikely it will happen. This sort of figure is far too high for the pockets of any of the multinationals and would need a major conglomeration of multinationals to come up or any where near this sort of figure unless the world Geo Political situation vis a vi Gas supply to Europe forces it. Even then it will take time.

Personally i would be quite happy with $5bn dollar sale probably in reach of many of the multinationals and give us something like £5 a share.

The alternative is get Mou 3 to flow properly sell that on and regular dividends until a deal of Mou 5 is made.

Mind you no harm in wishing but let us not get too far ahead as we need to get to it first. Then becomes a nice problem to have.

Happy New Year to all Predator holders. I also have that feeling that this is going to be a good year.

The upside here is phenomenal and as Blue Glow said the downside is minimal.

I tried to work out based from the information of Keith Oz post over christmas what our field might be worth if we uncovered 5tcf of which 1% was helium. My calculator ran out of noughts and the computer blew a gasket. So i will leave that for people who probably do not put the decimal place in the wrong place. Even then the number was enormous.

Taking the sale in 2018 off shore Israel./Egypt (not the most likely of bedfellows of 2.24tcf for $15bn and using an exchange rate of 1.265 ( currently 1.25) and final number of shares in issue 675m (currently 611m) The remainder being the options and warrants plus the what i call " Aren't I clever boy shares" that i am sure will get rewarded.

So assuming we hit >5tcf of gas this easily be £35 per share. (Just try working the numbers of that deal on our shareholding.) and that is before you calculate for our find being on shore and very close to a major pipeline and in a far more turbulent geo political situation.

15bn usd @ 1.265 = £ 11.857bn

Divide by 675m shares = £17.56p

Double to 2.24 tcf in that deal to 4.5tcf rounded up allow approx 11% for discount economies of scale on a bigger deal and we get to £35 Per share give or take for 5 plus tcf.

Now take that £35 per share and value up for the on shore and relatively limited Cap ex required.

Then work out what this might be with say 1% of that find being He.

Then add on any oil we find.

Then multiply that with your shareholding and you your family and very possibly your childrens family would be set up for life even with IHT.

As I say my calculator ran out of noughts and my computer blew a gasket.

However the big iIFand assumption is that we do need to find. 5TCF and it flows but even if we only found 1TCF and flowing this shareprice will be considerably bigger than 6.75p per share by quite a multiple.

Will it all come at once (no not unless talks on potential sales are on going and well advanced assuming we strike)

Roll on end of Jan and early Feb. It might be a bit early but it might be a very lovely Valentine's day.

What i meant was i have provided this kind of information on a regular basis to buyers and potential investors but it was a very tight knit circle of need to know. And i know the shareholders were the not on the list and nor were the senior middle management it was literally CEO CFO and Buyer / Investment house and that was it.

IJWT

IF we have a buyer and if there is someone in the wings and we are producing then it is very possible the daily figures are being given out but i would be very surprised if they ever found our way. They would be between PG and the buyers. I would be very surprised in these numbers ever saw light of day.

As investors we find out at the end when PG announces a sale. He is not going announce a no sale so we will only hear if a bid/offer has been made that PG feels is good enough to put to us the shareholders.

And yes Technically all bids need to be referred to the S/H but as PG and is friends probably own a controlling minority then they would veto long before it got to us.

Do not confuse what you would expect as the investment party with being small shareholder. I am afraid we are bottom of the pile and PG does not have much time the small holders looking to rock the boat.

As long as prd is top of the league at the end of the season. GLA

May i wish everyone here a very happy christmas and let us hope for a very prosperous new year. Personally i am hoping for something like £1 a share by the end of March would suit me nicely. But then i have always been a bit of optimist.

So assuming we hit 5.9 TCF or there abouts. What SP would we expect. With and without a bit He just for good measure.

Along with the earlier cut and paste i found this.

Swabbing rig operators must be highly skilled in their field as they have to consider the soundness, pressure and depth of the well they are working in, while also knowing the feel of their machine.

It does make wonder that if swabbing is an almost essential part of drill testing in the oil gas industry that the two do not come together as package. Bit like buying a duvet cover you will probably want matching pillow cases.

buy sandjet for two week and you get a swabbing unit for half price.

Which again begs the question if this is so common why was not a swabbing unit booked when we first started thinking of testing. To me this comes back to the thoughts of some on here that PG maybe a very good scientist but logistical planning does not seem to be one of his strengths. Hence the missed deadlines and the endless delays whilst new equipment and right equipment is sought.

I sometimes cannot help but feel that a bit less time in the data room and bit more time spent trying to co-ordinate or the variables of licenses and import permits and timings etc. and we would have it all together by now.

Still waiting patiently though

I found this under swabbing in Oil and Gas industry. I print in full

What Is Swabbing in Oil Drilling?

As far as the oil and gas industry is concerned, swabbing is the act of accessing the production zones of wells and removing accumulated fracking fluids. It's a method of well control that drilling companies use to release the well's bottom hole pressure, allowing them to "kick" it off. When a drilling company creates a new well, they use pressurized liquids to fracture the site, creating channels and production zones where the oil and gas can travel. Swabbing follows as a second step.

To efficiently remove the remaining liquids from the well, teams use specific swabbing rigs, which consist of a winch, cable, swab cup, foldable mast and a pulley at the top. Once they're ready to carry out the process, the rig operator will back the machine up to the edge of the well, as close as possible while still maintaining safety. They then adjust the rig's mast and position it over the center point of the well. Using the winch, the operator lowers and raises the cable into and out of the well, keeping in mind control and the well's characteristics.

In general, the standard for fluid removal is pulling about six barrels out of the well by way of the swabbing rig. In some cases, it only takes a single run, while other wells may require multiple repeats to remove all the fluids. As the operator pulls the fluids, the bottom pressure of the well builds, allowing the oil or gas to flow and push out of the well. Once you've reestablished the adequate pressure, your oilfield workers and operators can begin to pull resources from the well and store them.

Gidev

I agree with you completely. The risk reward is one of the best i have seen but does depend on what price you came in at and what price you have managed to average down at. Current SC 611m my average price about 10p therefore anything above a Market Cap of £61.1 or under $100m will see me in profit.

My belief is that TT alone either does now or will very shortly underpin a Market Cap of circa £60m

The Potential from Ireland is starting to get more real. Still a long way twixt cup and lip but this is coming closer i feel But at the moment still a gamble.

Then there is Mou 5. This is the Holy Grail and everything else all rolled into one.

But please let us not confuse these small LSE companies trading at pennies as being anything else other than a gamble. You can do all the DD you like but you at the whim of the DD and the gods of O&G.

There is not much difference here between putting your money on 2.30 at Epsom at 25/2 than there is here in putting your money on at 8% (Scorpion). except the in house bookie is calling it at 2/1.

This is not a triple bet but one bet covering three races all of various standards. Possible that none will come in but also possible that all will come in. But let us not confuse this with an investment it is not an investment. You invest in ICI or BP but this should be your play money. If it is any more than that you are in too deep and you are trying justify your gamble as an investment.

If you have a time fame throw it out the window this is flexible and you decide when to cut your loses and get out. If you stay in this could be mega but there again it might be an also ran.

But most important of all keep your objectivity.

One question i always ask myself when i get information of a forward event is why now. And i find myself why now with this planned event in January.

We were supposed to have news of TT by the end of the year so i am guessing that deadline has slipped.

Still waiting to hear on swabbing unit and also a start date re Mou 5

Plus will there be any thing further on Ireland post the GE.

The answer this time could be that PG knows he cannot carry on being incommunicative for much longer so he would have to come out of his shell. But at the same time this could be the date that everything will come together toward the end of January beginning of February. Maybe even something on Ireland.

I think we will get the gist if the presentation is all about the Potential Helium finds then (IMO) nothing is going happen for some while but if there are firm dates and timetables then this could be lift off.

I am hoping this is the latter.

At the moment i am still giving the benefit of the doubt to PG but we do need to see more substantive timeframe and this time something akin to a guarantee on testing drilling.

I have also dealt with big projects and they all come does not matter with bumps in the road and trying to sort them out in your country and your own language is sometimes a bit trickier than it looks on paper. Trying to do this in a foreign country and a foreign language and foreign ways and means of approaching things must be significantly more trying. At the same time he is trying to do this basically by himself.

Now here comes the other rub PG is basically damned if does and damned if he does not. He probably needs another hand to manage all these balls in the air but if he brings someone to help some will complain about the extra cost and he does not then they complain about the lack of effort or progress in getting things through.

I do not want to hear about the He that might or might not be there (or at least not yet). Like being promised that whopping ice cream sundae with a very large cherry on top as a kid but always been put off. I want the ice cream sundae and then i will worry about the cherry on the top.

Sorry PG but this is now the last chance saloon at the moment it is all mouth and no trousers.

By the time we reach the 23rd I am really hoping that PG has some concrete dates and not just more hyperbole of how great the potential is.

Mou 5 testing dates confirmed.

Mou 3 Swabbing

TT Production numbers and increase in flows.

Hopefully something positive on Ireland.

Things are taking time a long time but basically nothing has changed. 2025 is a new year and let us hope a really good one.

Risk in this share

Yes i would say there was risk in this share but there is also an incredible upside. You pays your money and you takes your pick.

the question is do you believe peace will happen in the near future. Will that leave unoccupied Ukraine Free (not asking is it fair or equitable that is a different debate). If you do, IMO, you stay this has a lot mileage in it. If you do not then this share will drop down from here so sell up.

Geo politics of this is going to be interesting. Does Trump want peace or is he an appeaser. In the same way there is a fine line between "Putting America First" and " America Only" there is also a fine line between wanting Peace and being an appeaser. And you certainly do not want to be an appeaser with a country that is showing itself to be economically weak. The question for me is can the US persuade Europe to give something to Russia economically in return for it giving back that land in Ukraine it has ceased.

Just remember a large of the second world war was because we screwed at the Treaty of Versailles and left Germany with nothing to go on with.

If they read their history it possible it might just save the day or everyone. Giving a chunk of Ukraine to Russia in this position of weakness means Putin will try again in a few years time like he did with Crimea. And that would be kicking the can down the road for someone else to pick up.

I have been weighing up taking my profit now and getting out but have decided to stay until we see exactly what DT's timetable is on this and the attitude he takes. The question is do i get out with just a few p profit per share or possibly a £1 profit per share or more in time. As i say make your own minds up and then take your chances.

Well done that is some dealing skills. Wish i could say the same.

When and if this comes through i think it is going to look a bit messy before the mud clears (if you will excuse the pun). It is very unlikely to be a nice clear cut RNS. I would love to see the RNS that reads

We aimed for 5.9 TCF we have found 5.9 TCF

We wanted 20mmcf flow rate and we have 20 mmcf flow rate

We reckoned about 1% He and our estimates are confirming that.

We also have oil at the viscosity we were expecting.

chances of getting as an RNS like that are about as likely as i will be flying to the moon next week.

What we may well get is a complete mixture. Good find but low flow rate. Good flow rate but lower find. The He may or may not be there. The oil may or may not be there in that quantity. The trolls on here will have a field day telling everyone how wrong PG was. My view is will it give us a Market cap greater than 25p per share ie £165m-£180m if it is we will all be winners.

So ignore the trolls the up side here is potentially massive. And that is before anything happens with Ireland and i am praying that TT will come good but think if it does it will be a late arrival at the party. Instead of promising to come first it will be last. Ireland could well bring a surprise guest.

Well done that is some dealing skills. Wish i could say the same.

At the moment i am completely ignoring the helium. Very nice as it sounds but I do not know where this number has come from. It has never been mentioned until a couple of months ago and as far as i know they have not done any more testing of Mou 5 recently.

Will not go quite as far as saying it is desperation but it came at a time when a "Hail Mary" would need to be delivered ie the time when LB went. No indication was given as to how we have suddenly arrived at having He and how much we have. Mind you it also came at about the same time when the Gas estimates jumped to 5.914Tcf net to PRD i think way more than any of us were expecting from Mou 5.

Must admit i really do not know how much of this is smoke and mirrors and how much of this optimism and how much is PG letting out titbits of information when it suits him.

I still believe there is something there and even if it were a fraction 5.914 (say a 1/5) ie about 1.2TCF then this would still re rate this SP significantly. If however it is right and the He is there then quite frankly as Cole Porter said "Almost anything Goes.".

Ukraine wants to be part of the EU and the West. Plus it is going to need the west to help re build it. It is hardly likely to chop off the hand that feeds it. So i would expect incentives to help re build Ukraine both from within and without of Ukraine. The main thing right now is peace. Personally i am not in this long term but think there is still a lot of mileage in this yet to come but do i think the SP will reach the heights of a few years back the answer is no i do not. But it still has some way to go before i think of getting out.