Member Info for Ibiza28

GRH - I am beginning to see why he and Paul get on so well they are both as incommunicative in their separate ways as each other.

Is GRH saying that we are still going to "blow the Bloody doors off" because at the moment it seems like an awful lot of effort just to open the door wide enough to get one hand in and hope that each swing of the bus round the next bend does not slam the safe door shut on your arm and cut it off.

One investor keeping his arm in the safe hoping it does not slam shut. GLA

What is the official confirmation. I have not seen anything that officially confirms it is a duster.

Thank you Keith for that summary. I would have no idea of the technical aspects of this would agree a basic error would stand out for any geologist to pick up and have questioned Paul on at some point in one of the interviews of the last couple of years.

Yes we could have gone the far more expensive route but then how many shares would we have in issue now and still no guarantee of hitting i would assume although the odds should be better.

Personally being optimist i am still hopeful of this coming good.

Highlandmat

There are plenty of Geologists on here and i respect each and everyone of them but none as far as i can tell cautioned that this could be misread for salt so from that i am assuming that this is far from being that simple to being a basic error.

Absolutely Highlandmat. If PG knew the salt was there or knew that what was there could be salt as much as gas then i think we should have been informed rather than led to believe that the CoS was likely to be greater than 12.5%

Fasten your seat belts its going to be bum;py ride. The next couple of weeks or so is going to get very interesting. It could be make or break time for PRD. There will be a lot of noise from the wings on here and else where and it is matter of what you cut out and what you listen too.

We will find out probably not this week and maybe not even the next week but i would hope by week beginning Tuesday May 6th a lot about what has been going on and whether we are sitting on a viable asset .

As far i can tell (and sometimes difficult to work out from the outside noise)

Final Mou 5 results and possible Farm out (maybe even two interested parties) which could make this interesting.

Mou 3 i would hope as well although again this is one where i am not sure whether we are in or out of it seems to vary with when the music stopped. Very much a musical chairs one this one.

And then there is Ireland: By all impressions Ireland is beginning to boil up whether we are involved i know not but it would appear listening and reading on here we are definitely in the chase.

Just maybe PG can bring all of these to the boil at about the same time that would be some achievement. And if so this SP could do almost anything.

Thank you this is what i have been looking for from GRH but still not sure if this is a basic error but i think that might be a matter of opinion. Yes i trusted PG's analysis as i am sure many did here but is this a basic error. Remember we are in the world of O&G exploration and therefore everyone involved at the sharp is likely to see what they want to see i would have thought. It is up to us to make our judgement call. I still back mine as it was my decision my money no one elses so i take the responsibility and i am not passing it on to someone else. Hopefully this will come good at some point soon.

I agree it does smack of hindsight and i do not remember this "basic Error" ever being mentioned by any of the Geologists on here before hand. I do accept that the 2d seismic maps probably do not translate too well across all mediums we have here so interpretation might be difficult. But GRH seems to have so much more information than most i would have hoped he might have said something about it being the wrong place or depth before hand.

Do. We know what this basic error was would be good to debate this also did GRH highlight this basic error at the time. To me this is important as it goes right to the heart of PG as a geologist and rest of Mou 5 is reliable. So please can we have more details on this basic error.

Triffle

Just bin him it gets embarassing and like communicating with a five year old and i apologize to all five years who generally have a higher level of intellect than this lot. Makes life alot easier with a lot of green boxes. The potential here is still good and based on this share price still massive. Just a matter of patience by everyone. My suspicion and it is purely that and Ireland might become a key player in this jigsaw. And also good to see there is another player in the game now for Mou 3 should we get that flowing. Must admit i would like to flow sooner rather than later.

Just maybe Ireland is the white knight that dashes to save damsel in distress PG. It issues successor license on Corrib South we sell on to Vermillion. PG keeps an amount to do the 3d seismic. Tells AG it is Mou3 or nothing and goes it alone and with the remainder issues us a special dividend.

Now i am not sure how much a 3D seismic would be that this size of terrain but am sure $300+m would cover it and give us a decent dividend. Probably watched too many fairy tale stories.

I thought it was Mou 5 they have drilled and found 595mcm or roughly 21 BCF plus 0.1157% He, On that basis and with 25% belonging to ONHYM it looks unlikely to be a match winner. But hopefully i am wrong.

Mannan

I hate to say this but this is old news. Article dated October of last year. Unless results are better than we expect we only have about 21BCF therefore a small fraction of that is Helium. We wait and see what the numbers really are, Here is hoping though.

Obadhia

You are right it is rapidly becoming a case of getting out with as much as we can salvage. We really do not know what is going on and everyone has their own theories.

Are we in talks with AG, who is talking to whom or have the talks stalled.

Are we waiting on something else. Mou 3 swabbing am not sure if this is on or off at the moment. It seems to depend on what time of the month it is as to whether on or off.

Have we got enough Helium to make it viable. 0.1557% of 21 BCF on a share cap of +/- 700m is almost next to nothing so is there something that we do not know or is this just being hyped up.

Add to that a CEO who clearly does not like the market and a market that clearly does not like the CEO. IF it were FT100 company the CEO would have been replaced ages ago for someone the city can relate to.

And to make matters worse a CEO who is by almost any standards the worst communicator i have seen for some while. Consequently when we do get an RNS one will need to read it 3 times before starting to understand it.

One thing i am learning from all this is the art of patience. IMO this share price is ridiculously low. Even TT would support it at this current level but there will be very few people (if any) who are averaged down to 2p per share.

So if you are here remember what Warren Buffett said when asked what it was like to lose $80m overnight when the markets crashed. " I have not lost $80m my stocks have gone down in value to the tune of 80m but i only lose if i sell."

At the moment this is a paper loss not a real loss. This will bounce back. And at these rates it could be very suddenly.

I think the honest truth Morocco was too big a project for a small O&G company to take on. It was a classic case of being so big it was difficult to know where to start and also so full of possibilities. If we had proven up one of the smaller CoS against the value per dollar then we might have had an asset that someone comes in and strips out and takes us over for a song and we would all be complaining about the way this handled.

PG decided i think to go about this piece meal and try to bring all the wells to the boil ( excuse the mixed analogy) at the same time and if Mou-5 had come through we would not have been complaining. PG i think was scared of this share being manipulated (which it has been and still is) and some one would come in and steal the lot under our noses.

I think that is why Mou 3 swabbing was delayed. With hindsight this should all have been done differently and i think he should have had someone with a lot more knowledge of corporate raids in his team as to how to negate this and keep the city on board. For me this is the main failing. I have seen a number of big companies that were just too small in their management thinking and a number of small comanies that thought big and prepared in advance for it with their senior management structure. PG was not prepared to find way in which he finance a senior management structure keep the shareholders happy and risk spending money. Not an enviable position to be and having missed Mou 5 he now has to try and find away through this. Have the big bucks gone yes i reckon they have. For those who have been in here a very long time ie most of this long winded road come out with something but when they count in the time value of money and a risk percentage then it is unlikely to show a big return. Those who came in half way through at 20p i think you will make a profit but not much of one certainly for the time and risk. Personally at 20p i will come out on top and will do most of what i would like but not all. I sit hopefully PG does somehow pull a rabbit out the hat.

IJWT

I do not follow the logic as to why Paul would want to place article that down plays and negates what little we have found. that makes no sense. If you are saying that Paul may have given the interview then possibly but I really do not see him trying to do this (I presume) he is not fluent in French . Sorry but as they say this is not logical. he would not down play this asset to this degree just as he is trying negotiate a price. I know you do not rate him and on certain things i am not happy with but he is not stupid and to do this would crass stupidity.

The article in Morocco news is almost certainly a placed article by AG who have a vested interest in keeping this price down. I doubt that PG's french is good enough to this over and or the French journalists English is good enough to understand what Paul is trying to say (Hell i have trouble understanding Paul sometimes).

I think what we have found is commercial for a country that needs its own gas. If we had found 20BCF 100 miles off shore and 3k down below the sea bed and with a whole infrastructure to build then yes this would probably be classified as a duster. But seeing it is on shore and not that far down and very adjacent to a major gas pipe it suddenly becomes a lot more valuable especially i would reckon in the current Geo Political economic climate.

For what we were looking for 20BCF is disappointing but it is by no means a non starter otherwise i doubt if AG would be engaging with Predator. Mou 3 is a separate issue and when that flows should cover a price.

I think we are waiting on a number of things as i think Paul is going to exit us from Morocco altogether in the near future. I think that AG and possibly ONHYM are starting to push him that way. so he is waiting on Mou 3 possibly Mou 4 and talking up the deal on Mou 5.

I cannot see anyone wanting to fund our trip into the Jurassic why would you pay for someone else to have the benefits. Basically they get all the downside and a small share of the upside. No cannot really see that. So i would not be at all surprised if by the end of April we had one big announcement that we had sold on Morocco to AG. If the companies / businesses can be made to be stand alone this is done is Caah and Share deal I do not know but somehow i rekcon we will not be participating in Morocco much longer.

A further thought is PG is thinking further ahead still and waiting for Ireland to hopefully come through and then sell on both and leave us with just Trimidad. With the money he gets (probably not a fortune but depends on Mou 3 (IMO) ) then does a major share buy back 9 shares for every 10 reducing SC to circa 70m with a small cash left over and Trinidad hopefully wiping its own nose and then he rinses and repeats else where

Personally i do not think any rinse and repeat will include me as i reckon i have had my fill of these shares. If i can get a complete get out of around 25p per share i would be happy with that at the moment.

I know but has twas the old target has that been updated.

My reckoning is that this share is worth around 60p per share and i think i am being relatively conservative. I will post by calculations and everyone can have fun knocking it down. (Most of my Trolls are in Green boxes)

we have found 575mcm which translates to approx 20BCF (pointed our a fraction of the 5.9TCF we were meant to find.

Deducting 25% due to ONHYM and Useing the $12 mcf as suggested by Scorpion ( by the way i think Scorpion were useing this for A TCF which should have economies of scale in it so this might be a little conservative. And using 1.28 exchange rate and a final amount of shares in issue of 700m we get a share price of around 20p per share.

20p per share would get most people their money back and some people a decent return. But by the time you take time and risk into it i would reckon that 100 return is an absolute minimum that we should be looking for.

The value in this share if there is any value is in the 1557ppm of Helium.

From what i can gather the price of Helium has gone through the roof recently so any amount is pretty well commercial and assuming the 1557ppm refers to the amount of Gas we have found. If you take the 15bcf of gas (ie the 20 less onhym share) we get to 2.37BCF of He. From what i can gather from what Keith said a little while ago this is just the start of the problem in that it is difficult to capture and hold. So assuming that only 50% of this is able to be captured and using what i think is a conservative price per MCF of around $300 ( think the price could be considerably higher) and again using 700m shares i am getting an add of approximately 39p per share. Add the two together I am getting at a conservative (i believe) price of 59p per share and this is before i even think of any oil we may have found.