Member Info for Ibiza28

Yes but he would have to pay tax on that and then feed the family so it is not a great different to you investing and earning aliving. He still has a fair bit of skin in the game. Where i would agree is he probably has had a few freebe shares to dilute the investment he has made.

Https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/economy/

As Keith said it would have been recorded some weeks ago i thought i might try and find it. And here is something and there may well be more. Could not see any mention of oil and gas find. But then if recorded three weeks i would say he would have to be clarvoyant. I think best chance of news is next week with the O&G symposium in Houston. That would be far more spontaneous and would surprised if anyone attending would be able to keep a find/discovery quiet as i would think everyone would know it is happening.

I am not so sure about these big speeches and their timings. This may not suit us at Predator at all. As the markets (especially with PRD) see the glass as half empty all the time and never half full. If the King does not mention a gas find and PG does not issue an RNS on Thursday morning then this share will fall back to the 3p levels. If he does mention it then PG will have to issue an RNS and we all know Paul hates having to declare anything except at his own pace. Personally i think the far more likely date for a full update is the Oil and Gas meeting which ONHYM are attending in Houston. By then i would expect everything from Mou 3 Mou5 etc to have been fully examined and collaborated.

I believe we are in the "End Game" as chess players call it. Am not sure how far in and i think the ultimate goal is our exit from Morocco and leave the production to them and hopefully we will still retain a decent stipe end for those wanting to stay in and hopefully receive decent regular dividends.

Swizz I would like to agree with you but cannot. For a long time now PG has not divulged any good news and he has certainly not let out the bad news when it actually happened it is rather when his hand has been forced. Well maybe not bad news let us just say much of the news we have had recently has been not what was expected rather than bad. Just for once i am hoping that this is good news. Assuming Italfluids and Schlumberger are still on site ( and not been told to go home) then there is a very good chance it may be good.

Flagstaff who it should be remembered are our communication and PR team have a projected share price of £1.48 per share. This is a bit misleading IMO as the important question is what is the projected Market Cap.

That £1.48 figure is i think some time ago. On my calculation it was when we were 540m shares in issue now it is 686m and probably circa 700m by the end of this testing. At that time the dollar exchange rate was around 1.25 to the pound. So 540m x 1.48x 1.25dollar = $1bn market cap.

Unfortunately for us the Dollar has weakened considerably to 1.35 so this now gives a sterling market cap of £740m and using 700m shares as a base then this becomes £1.05 per share and not £1.48. However I think this is based on the gas find alone and may not include anything for He content or even oil if there is any. So if the Gas is commercial and there is He and Oil then i would expect a market cap well beyond $1bn. Because as we are constantly reminded this drill is on shore. The wells are not very deep and much of infrastructure is mostly in place, it would not take much gas to reach this level. By that i mean if we find half of we expect then £1.50 would not be unachievable and probably even more. Let us make no mistake this is an all or nothing share. Currently around 6p per share if we strike it could move to 30p very quickly or alternatively drop back very quickly to 3p. However do not despair PG is very confident that we get through and make it flow and we WILL exciting Morocco completely i would guess by the end of next year at latest, The question is at what price and what does Paul do with the money we get for our share. i have thoughts on that but one thing at a time.

Actually I think it was day 5. The RNS said had started so possibly had started over weekend. GLA

Can i ask who is Jasper and how does he know that perforation is successful..If this is the case i would expect an RNS on it very shortly.

Yes but our Porter's are very far from comic relief. He /She is just a pain in the a**e, I binned the lot in what ever guise they come in ages ago.

Can someone explain to me please how according to Jasper we can have a signed agreement with AG that involves an upfront payment. I have no problem with either but if the Agreement is being announced in August (assuming that Mou 3 flows). So why do we wait till the end of the year for the upfront payment. Upfront payments come at the beginning otherwise it is not an up front payment it becomes "A some time later payment". Given all the obfuscation that has gone on with this share i hate to suggest what would happen to SP if we announce a deal with AG where the up front payment is 5 months later.

I am up for that if invited if it comes it will be well deserved. GLA

What is the thinking here does PG keep the Shallow Sands testing quiet until all the areas have been drilled or does he let it out now. Would it be different for a success to a failure or not. I am assuming the shackles are off re ONHYM so nothing to stop PG from coming forward. So could we get news as early as next week.

I would tend to agree i would doubt they would bring in the Italian Job just to test the shallow sands. Seems a bit excessive. They are there to test all the various levels especially now we have raised extra.

I do not think this is as bad as it looks. It says subsituting cash for shares on buy out from CEG. remember not so long ago this was 1m being paid for on a share basis at the value of the shares. At that time the shares were around 2.5p so it was something like a 25m dilution. So now it is 25m shares but includes other cash for further on site work. Face it we knew this was coming so it was to degree expected.

From i can tell from this is we do this bit by bit, slowly and carefully. Now i can start to understand some of the enormous complexities in here and why after every test we have needed to sit down and re-evaluate the next step. As indicated you start to make wrong moves now then this could all go up in smoke. For those of us used to a "normal" business this is all a bit strange but this does help to clarify it. Then throw the pressure that ONHYM have until recently (it seems) been putting on PG to be careful and economical with his words you start to understand why there has been more obfuscation than clarity with some of the RNS's.

Yes it has been a long run and at times a confusing one but let us just hope we are on the lap of this very long race.

Just wondering if there is Helium would ONHYM take that on as well or would we look to do a separate deal for that.

GLA

Yes but where does the money come from that is question. The actual gas that we know of is not that great and this is by sounds of it a brand new company therefore no back History to support it. Would Morocco increase its Nat Debt to cover this.

Any persons acceptable out going SP is a reflection of the average price they went in at plus the time they have been in with a risk reward return especially on these penny shares plus a level of expectation. I have been in for 2.5 years (not that long) and averaged down to around 10p or per share so yes i would think that 25p is a fair return. But when i factor in expectation and i do not mean the "Just blow the doors off" crowd then I would say that this is giving the share away. Some here have been here for years and have now averaged down to around 4p. But is that 25p a fair return for the risk involved over the years. That is up to them to decide. Not for me to state. These are not investment shares but lifestyle shares and with them i expect much larger returns than just x1 per year. It would be different if max price was always 25p but this one has been at £1.48 for somewhile so i reckon something around £1 -- 1.40 would a fair price. Do i get it. I have no idea but the question is if i do where does a new company get that sort of money,

If we are planning to exit Morocco completely and i think the last RNS which concentrated almost entirely on TT demonstrated that this was the ultimate intention. Maybe back then PG knew this would happen. Other than what work is on the cards and fully funded (we are assured) we will not be doing anything more in Morocco.

My question is to GRH and others on here who are thinking that this deal that is coming (assuming it is coming) would be from a new business specially set up for this purpose. Unless it is a new conglomeration of a number of other major African O&G companies. I cannot see where the money will come from to pay us other than about 20p a share i estimated we had found some time ago. I would not want to leave Morocco with all that potential without a reasonable price for it, especially if there is Helium as well.

So if GRH is saying that is much bigger than 20p-25p per share ie around 200-250m USD and i agree that on getting out with what we have found plus what we know is there but not quite got access to as yet plus the enormous potential. Must have a price to it. And i agree that 25p for all of that would be giving it away. But where does a completely new company come up with what we might be hoping for ie somewhere around 1bn USD. Or going on estimated p[rice of £1.48 ie around 1.5bn USD.

So where does a brand new company get to raise $1.5bn plus to buy us out of Morrocco.

I think the deal has been done. ONHYM and PG have come to a deal on what they are paying and all we doing at the moment is going through the final rituals. I might be the announcement comes at the Oil and Gas Conference in Houston at beginning of August. What that price is i have no idea but i would tend to agree with GRH that it will be fore more than just what we have found. If it announced there by ONHYM then it will be interesting to know what is said as the share price will move from that. IF they announce a find the SP might reach 50p but if they announce either a potential discovery or an actual discovery then this could do anything.

I think there has been been far more going on either on the surface, behind the scenes or even under ground than we have been told about. PG has been very backward in coming forward and now we find out if this is just Paul or whether this was Paul following instructions. My reckoning deal has been done ad we find out if we get a fair share of the spoils or whether we have been done up like a kipper. By my reckoning just over 2 weeks to wait.

The only problem i will have is if this share reaches 10.5p before news breaks. As i view up till then i am running at a loss and would be just a matter of the size of the loss. And as i have already made the investment decision i just sit it out till it comes back into profit (hopefully). IF it flows 10.5p should look miniscule and i would expect a SP north 50p a share. Let us be honest if we have gas from Mou 3 Mou 5, possibly oil and possibly Helium then a Market cap of £350m or $500m is not unreasonable. What i am hoping is a sale on and a special dividend to keep us on board for the future. What size of dividend i have no idea but would hope for something reasonable.

Keith are you saying that discovering the club salt layer rather unexpectedly could work in our favour rather than against us.