Member Info for Ibiza28

We will find out within the next week or two whether we are on to a winner. Personally i think we are the question is will it be enough to cover the risk return percentage that i would want for the period of time i have been in here. Of that i am not quite so certain.I would want a 10 banger on my average which seems to be much higher than many on here at around 10 plus per share. So i am looking for something that will get me £1 per share one way or another I do not care.

But IJWT that is exactly what all these O&G companies are they are the modern day Gold Explorers, some are complete shysters and others are just slight less obvious about it.

All these O&G shares are precisely lifestyle shares and it is gambling on their knowledge and their luck. If you win you win big if you lose well you have lost. The only difference is that this one has three different horses and we hoping that they are not all nags. But do no expect the normal levels of Management Information and KPI's that you would get out of "normal" company.

There is always going to be a conflict between returning for Share holders anything or waiting for the really big strike and unfortunately it is not you and I having the say in hitting 13 red again and letting it all ride on it. You just hope that they have enough skin in the game themselves so that you are prepared and at least in this PG has amount of his own skin in this game.

I hate to say it but there is no way out now but to wait for news and just hope that PG was not exaggerating re both Mou3 and Mou5. Personally i find to a degree PG rather sharp belligerent style works for me, mainly i suppose because i had one or two bosses who fitted that mould. I would agree definitely not to everyones taste.

IJWT

I am really surprised you are still invested here. This is not an A listing company in the FT100 and it is never going to have the where with all to run it, at the moment, the way you would expect a proper company to run. When we get a find and things change which they should then you will have a right to expect that.

Just leave PG be and when he reports you can then complain and I know you will find something to complain about you always do. Even if he found 20TCF you would complain it was not 21 TCF or that it should have been reported earlier.

Either sit back and wait or sell up.

As I see it these TT assets are bit of a double edged sword. What they achieve for the company may not be what comes through in the share price although ultimately you think it should.

A number of things have happened in the first half of this year all of which are out of our hands. Opec increased production in reaction to something that DT opened his big mouth on some time ago. Because of this price of oil has droped from mid 80's a barrell to now around mid 60's. As if that is not enough the reaction to US bonds plus Standard Poors on US credit rating means that the dollar has dropped 10% since the beginning of the year and probably even more. to come some people think there is another 10% to come out of the dollar. All this means is we are getting considerably less out of TT, when it starts producing, Because price per barrel is down but also the exchange rate hits us badly as well.

However as i believe most transaction in O&G are based or priced in USD the last part probably will not come into play as far as the company is concerned as they would probably try and keep it in dollars. So i would not expect a great deal of rise in SP from TT for a while.

I have always held the view that TT job is not necessarily to be profitable but to be able run itself and make a contribution to the running of he company thus leaving Morocco to be providing the jam on creams for us shareholders.

Me2

As you like a gamble i will try and take the time to answer this for you. A 4p ticket here buys you into four different horse races and possibly more to be run over the course of the next few years with differing degrees of prize for each race.

So let us start with the big one

Mou 5 This is the big one and the one which could do anything and i mean anything.

In horse racing terms it is the Triple Crown in America one is very rarely won by the same horse. Well Predator could be that horse. But it is a three race accumulator and could take another year or two to complete.

Mou 3 This is if you like the English Derby except you are very lucky the race has already been run and we waiting for the photo finish to be decided by the Stewards. Does it flow or does it not flow. Simples.

Then there is Ireland.

Now if you will excuse the pun this is a very Irish type of Grand NAtional. We have been in this race for ever and every so often jump any fence that has been put our way and we are still running. There may be one other outfit still in the race and no idea how long we are to run or how many more fences we need to jump. For a 4p ticket the prize will be big but nothing in comparison with the other two. It is beginning to resemble the film "They shoot horses don't they". (Nothing to do with horse racing though)

Then finally there is TT now this is another long term race and 4p ticket could well turn in a small profit This is the equivalent if you like to a point to point race down on a local farm in the country every so often during the winter. You might get your money back as the ticket is cheap enough.

As you say you want a gamble this is putting it into gambling terms.

now what i know about gambling is very little and what i know about horse racing is the same.

Now what i know about gambling is very little and what i know about horse racing is even less but some on here might. But if it is a gamble you want then just buy your ticket as to wanting investment advice DYOR and then ask an Oil and Gas expert direct and pertinent questions. There are plenty on here but they do expect someone to have tried to find something out for themselves. Not do all the leg work for them.

I do not know and i have read somewhere that that "research note" was a bit more than a note as i have heard it was something like 250 pages long. That is more like a PHD dissertation than a research note and all we have had is the edited highlights. As it is written by a Petroleum engineer i would suggest that this is very possibly part of a PHD.

So my thinking is a PHD graduate (certainly very eloquent) with on site material and almost certainly permission from PG this is Paul's way of letting us know that this is under control and we will be alright in the end. I still stand by it was an unofficial RNS. too much information and smacks of something straight from Data Room (models and all). This has not been done by collating, Editing, etc all the RNS and transcribing all the interviews given by Paul where ever it may be. My reckoning is this bloke is just far too busy to doing all this rummaging around.

Bottom line Paul knows everything there is about this Research Note as also the interview in a Moroccon paper i think it was yesterday and this was a deliberate plant. News to come in next couple of weeks so me thinks. Could be very interesting. It will not answer everything but it should answer a lot.

I thought i would just look up what classified as price sensitive information . It is just not as plainly simple as good or bad news has to be informed on knowing it. It information "that of on getting out would affect the price" at the moment there is no information getting out to affect the public. Now once this starts to get out then PG has to informing us. I have a feeling this is very close now as i reckon leaks or interviews to the press by anyone would classify as Inside information.

I just want to caution everyone not to get too far ahead of themselves. I have a feeling that the RNS will not be unequivocal as nothing ever is or never appears to be. The motorway is a great booster or i would hope so I think more with the exit near our site but you do not build a motorway in five minutes. It is ( I would assume) even in Morocco given a great of thought. Therefore someone has convinced the authorities that there is a very good chance of gas being there as it would have been.

I believe we have gas and very possibly oil and hopefully Helium but am not sure in what quantity and and what will happen with the SP.

The last meaningful RNS was on or around 24th March and with the end of the second quarter less than three weeks away another RNS is due any day IMO but i would hazard a guess and say not Monday or Tuesday possibly the following week.

I hope you are right but I get the impression that they withdraw to regroup and then wade in again

I doubt it i reckon they have just gone to a day class on "How to be an effective troll",

Keith

thank your time and your diplomatic way of saying it was a hotch potch of a question. I thought i had it nailed and then everything runs together and i forgot the original point i was tring to get at. The answer to the useless question was as always thorough and also polite which i am not sure it deserved. I am going to need to read it through to reading again not just to understand the answer to to remind myself what my first question was meant tobe akka

Keith can i ask you a question that is probably silly and almost feel stupid in asking it. but here goes.

I am not sure if the Research note alluded to the Salt Layer that we found but did not mention in detail. From what i gather the salt layer could well contain gas within its impermeable seal Until we drill it. Could that gas (how far down it may be) be like a good wine. Ageing nicely with time and therefore instead coming out like any other Lake Plonk may even come out as a top quality wine. In other words could the gas down there be turning into He. so to speak.

In your opinion does the salt layer corroborate what we believe is there in a strange way or does it detract from what we already know. I suppose this is the $64k question and is probably why GRH sold a chunk of his holding at the time because the RNS was hardly unequivical.

So are we looking at at the same opportunity that we had before it is might come in a different way.

Would the data room have a 3D model of what we think the whole site might look like or what we know it looks like because that description of the skyscraper block was incredible graphic and if that were visible along with the Seismic might give us an idea as where this 19TCF might be.

I agree this is going to be a put in the bottom draw for a couple of years share but before i do that i would like get some value attested to the share (ie greater than 3.5p so that i can decide how many shares i put away and what i hang on to. And i am hoping that Mou 3 will do that.

I can understand your point of view but really does it have to be so stark. All of one and none of the other. Why can't have a bit of both. Let us get some value into this share because i and a number of others here are under water still and it would be nice to know that we could get out with something if we had to.

The problem is that we have absolutely no idea of what we have found. We know what the potential is or might be but that could take years to get to and in the meantime we are sitting around on a share valued at 3.5p at the most and if this strategy of keeping everything close to his chest is going to continue it will probably slide.. PG can play the long game but the good poker players mix it up because one day some day someone is going to read you and buy us out for a song and then we all lose. Probably even Paul. Time to let the market sort out a true value for us rather than just being enigmatic about it. If ONHYM are playing difficult then time to find away around that. I believe that "Research Note" is a deliberate plant. If it was confidential why send it to the one person who could leak it without actually leaking it but GRH. I know there are people who completely disagree with my theory and that is fine but my view that was not put together from RNS's, CPR, ITR's etc and the very graphic picture of the sky scrapper could only have come from some kind of 3d model that may well be seen in a data room to show people what the real generational well this might well be.

We all know this share is worth +/-20p , that would put almost everyone back in credit and then let Jimmy23 make his own decision from there rather than have to play our long game. We have already had one very unfortunate and untimely death amongst us and how many more are there going to be before we end up knowing if this share is a flyer or not. It could well take another two years before we get to that sort of figure and even then given the potential size of this that might only be scratching the surface. I am prepared to wait but would like something i could just de risk with but no we have the trolls very successfully bashing this share down. Easy to be negative rather than constructive unfortunately.

My view is that we another few weeks to wait yet. End of June i would hope we have something that will shift this share once and for all. Either it will hit 35p almost immediately or it will be 1.35p almost immediately. So PG find someone to re write your RNS now and be sure he / she understands exactly what you want to say even if you may not be allowed to say it. I have said it before this next RNS is IMO the most important document you will probably have ever written. GLA

I was just looking at the ADVFN website and noticed that they are showing a different Share Cap to what we have as the issued Share Capital.

We are showing 666.3m shares and they have it as 611.875m A difference of about 54.5m. Has anybody seen this. We of course are in line with what the company is showing.

This is beginning to sound like a new joke

Q) "When is a duster not a duster"

A) When it has Hellium.

To me it is simple you do not put a fancy new well cap on duster. Simples

Thanks Keith for the clarification.

Part Two

Another point that I would make is that if ever there was an advert out to the rest of the petroleum world certainly the majors to come and have look at our data room before it is too late. Then this is it.

Put that together with the timing of its leak/arrival over a quiet bank holiday weekend, makes for “conspiracy theories” to be easily arrived at. It is 3 weeks since the last RNS which I always felt was rather rushed probably pushed by the Lonny rant and a rather poor presentation with Oak shortly afterwards. And if I am right that news in about the middle end of June ie toward end of the second quarter. So i still stand by my thinking that Paul knows about this and every single word of it. I think a lot is happening in the background and this is Paul quietly confident of what he has got telling AG and anyone else that it is time to put up or shut up.

I am more and more coming to the conclusion that this is potentially so massive it off the scale of what has been seen before. However before everyone starts jumping up and down saying i have lost it completely I will say i do not think we are going to be the ones to uncover all of this. But our share could be significant.

I tend agree that Paul is desperately hoping that Ireland comes through very shortly as the money from that would immediately monetize this share and more to point I think put him in a much stronger position financially to bargain. and keep most of us shareholders happy.

My final message to Paul is please take your time in writing the next RNS it could be the most important document you have ever written. This share will either go very quickly to 35p and above or down below 1p.

Personally I remain convinced and this latest “Research Note” just re affirms that. GLA

Keith

Part One

I am not suggesting a conspiracy theory unless you call that i think PG knows of this Research Paper a conspiracy theory although having said that I am not sure how up to date it is. As it still talks of 19TCF (I have no idea if this is still possible) and no mention of the salt layer discovery.

If you are right then this is an even more amazing piece of work. i must admit that i have not been through and dissected all the RNS's or presentations etc but i cannot ever remember seeing or heard use of Karstified Carbonate Rocks. Not knowing much about Geology i had to look this up and it sounds really exciting if this is the case and we have gas. I think I would have seen this before and again whilst I have read most of your posts I am not sure if you have ever raised this either. Nor do I believe that GRH has said as much, but then I would not expect him to as he talks in riddles, which some of the time go straight over the top of my head. So I had to look it up and found the following

"Karstification significantly increases the porosity and permeability of carbonate rocks, making them excellent aquifers for groundwater storage and flow."

Seriously I would have thought this would have been raised before and maybe it has years ago but would have thought it would have been repeated more than once on here.

I put this along with the visualisation picture of

“Imagine an underground skyscraper with gas and helium on every floor — from the basement Jurassic to the top-floor Miocene — and every floor is charged by a central elevator shaft (the faults) bringing hydrocarbons up from deep kitchen-like source rocks. That’s Guercif.”

That is one hell of a visual picture to just come to from a series of different RNS;s CPR’s etc and even seismic pictures. Not to have seen some kind of model showing this.

The amount of time that it would take for this person to pull all this information together and collate it would be phenomenal not to mention the organisation he would have in his brain to manage all this information and pull it together from various different sources.

My thinking is this is a young man probably in his early thirties and a very rapid riser in his field and I would reckon would stick out like a beacon of light in a dark sky with this kind of ability. In my experience there are very few people around with this ability to pull together this information and disseminate it and explain in laymans terms is extraordinary and at the same time hold down what must be a very demanding job. So therefore he has done this in his spare time.

If this is so then i would strongly suggest that Paul finds him. Should not be too difficult i would think this is a small world and someone like this would shine out the moment he opened his mouth or wrote anything down. The Clarity would just stand out. Just to write the next RNS which could be the most important RNS he has ever written.

I would just raise a few points. This petroleum engineer is almost certainly a senior engineer working on site at Mou 5 and has direct access to the data room.

He is a senior engineer i reckon because he has an ability to explain complex scientific thoughts in to a language that almost everyone can explain. And not one with ability would be holding down a low level job for long.

The amount of detail he has in some case it appears has not come out yet from the company indicates direct access to information that we have not been made aware of.

He/ She is not part of any external company looking at this wealth of information because he would not nor would the company involved want him talking up a share they want to buy or may want to buy. Not worth your job.

We on Pred do not, and dare i say it, probably could not afford some one of his level. So he is not directly connected to the company. He / She is very probably a senior petroleum engineer with Zenith. So therefore one step removed from the company. however this is a tight drill and however good this bloke might be i do not think he would be so stupid as to jeopardise his job with Zennith as i think he works for them. Therefore PG knows all about this report every single word of it. And is probably fuming in that no matter how hard he tries he could never write anything with quite so much clarity wishes he could have him to write his RNS's.

So this judiciously leaked "Research Document" you can take as being an unofficial RNS from the company itself.

It is however not indicative of any thing else other than being a research document. But you can read any which way you like. But one thing is for sure things are progressing IMO and in time we will hear but i doubt it will be this month may not be till the middle end of June. So just sit tight and wait.

This share has done exactly as some on here have predicted bounced and is now settling back.. It has caused more than a slight ripple in rather large pond. But can imagine the share price reaction if any of the next RNS validate any these thoughts and findings. This report would be the booster for the rocket and this share will fly.

However i would suggest to Paul is that if the next RNS contains anything remotely technical he gets this bloke to write the RNS. GLA