Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

Don't see how termination of EBT's and transfer of share to treasury shares helps with finances - unless they subsequently re sell them (and even then not much - 80k )

Not.

Daisy : excellent commentary by YASX. Reflects my own thinking

I believe 2021 will come and go and the goose will not have laid the golden egg.

I've stated and outcome and a timescale. If anyone thinks this is 'drivel' feel free to make a counter prediction.

I was invested. I'm no longer invested. NCCL started to remind me of some of my past mistakes and I took the the segue into solar as the writing on the wall. I am however utterly fascinated by it.

I doubt if EDM are interested in progressing the main project at this time - if ever.

If they were now would be the perfect time for them to do it. NCCL are effectively bankrupt / from a negotiations point of view holding a busted flush. They'd pretty much have to agree to whatever they were given and be thankful.

and IF before the end of June the anticipated y/e accounts for Dec 2020 appear ...

I suspect the 'going concern' comments of the auditors report will feature more red flags than a Chinese Communist Party National Congress

Only nine more sleeps to a big announcement / clarity then.

I could be wrong and many on the board will hope that I am ( probably for their sakes I do to ) but if asked to bet on how things progress from here my bet is

- radio silence on the main coal related project for the foreseeable

- increasing solar news flow and associated fund raising

Excerpts

Optimal ownership structure for the Company's coal baseload and renewable energy projects are being reviewed given changing investor appetite for renewable versus fossil fuel projects

NESA, NIH and NGP have entered into a binding agreement granting NESA and NGP exclusive rights to negotiate terms on which they would acquire, through the proposed JVCo, a minimum 51% interest in the NIH Portfolio by 30 November 2021 with a subsequent option to acquire up to 100% within a 5 year period.

NESA comes with an experienced management team with a proven track record developing and managing a 15.5MWp solar PV plus 0.2MWh battery storage C&I portfolio across 66 sites in South Africa (the "NIH Portfolio")

Following the proposed capital raise and transaction, JVCo will have a combined operational portfolio of 15.9MWp solar PV and 1.1MWh battery storage across 67 sites in South Africa and Mozambique, subject to funding and acquisition of the NIH Portfolio

NGP has also secured the right to fund a US$5.5m C&I project development pipeline in Mozambique through a Relationship Agreement with Captive Power Limited

Everyone has there own opinion on the main coal project. Mine is that that ship has sailed. Looks like they are teaming up with a small but growing SA Solar outfit / adapting to their circumstances. They have neither the back catalogue nor the financial muscle to be anything other than a junior partner.

Ncondezi has the right (but not the obligation) to fund a pipeline of C&I solar and battery storage projects in Mozambique (the "Projects")

Whoohoo!

I fear we have 'novated' a coal project with a solar pipeline.

G_G_G seems to have a realistic grasp of the situation. It may happen and if it does there is a large potential upside. However progress is in the hands of functionaries with different agendas, priorities and timescales. If it doesn't - NCCL are toast. It is as he has said a binary bet.

Elsewhere on the board exists IMO wilful misinformation and disingenuous extrapolations.

"The solar plant will help with the finance" - NO IT WILL NOT. 20 days after it is commissioned the 30% interest rate on the $500k loan becomes active.

"A 450MW power station has been started in the south of the country so ours is imminent". NOT NECESSARILY. The Temane project was described in official documents in 2018 as at the 'feasibility study' stage. Ncondezi was described as 'conceptual' at that time. I don't know its current status. I have not seen 'feasibility study' in any official documents. I may just not have found them.

"EDM require no further information so we are just haggling about the price" - NOT NECESSARILY. For all we know the potential project is on the back burner indefinitely.

Potential investors should proceed with their eyes wide open.

Good luck to anyone who hits the jackpot.

The future of large scale battery storage is VFRB not lithium

https://electrek.co/2017/12/21/worlds-largest-battery-200mw-800mwh-vanadium-flow-battery-rongke-power/

Good luck to anyone with a stake in the outcome. I hope it all ends well - but it is certainly a nail biter.

Whether NCCL's 300MW coal fired power features in any actionable way in Mozambiques power delivery is an unknown as far as can see at this point.

Whether a conclusive decision is made in any meaningful timescale is an unknown.

It may be the case that minions are pouring over NCCL's proposals and imminently about to award contracts. Or it may be a case reminiscent of the scene in 'The Office' where David Brent was presented with a wearisomely large pile of
C.V.s at which point he randomly threw half of them in the bin and said "Lets get rid of the losers".

We just don't know.

I'm saying the Solar project required a $500k loan. When it is commissioned the loan starts to attract a 30% interest rate. ie initially $150k p.a. if the capital is not paid off.

Re $17k of monthly revenue - a) $17k is not the same as $17k of profit (though I'd like to think that the margin on a solar plant was high once built ) b) I'd probably be pleasantly surprised if what was due was paid and paid promptly. Frankly for ordinary shareholders I'd be concerned that this project resulted in a deterioration in finances rather than an improvement.

If this project delivers 600MWh of electricity I have no idea if there are plans to pursue other such similar projects or on what terms.

Given that the Solar plant required a $500k loan with a %30 coupon I'd have thought nothing for 5 years odd ?

( assuming the local authorities pony up their dues - a big IF in that part of the world )

I think it would be fair to say the companies finances are not good. It defaulted on a long term loan due Nov 2019. The lenders have allowed it to accrue at 12%. In the last annual accounts (June last year ) it stood at $4.5m

Oct 2019 they raised $750k

Nov 2020 they raised £750k

Extrapolating they have cash until 3rd quarter? In theory they should publish their annual accounts in the next month and the picture should clearer.

looking at your inter connector plan Annex 2, items 6+7

looking at this document page 5-14

https://openjicareport.jica.go.jp/pdf/12318606.pdf

At the point at which it is asserted that a 300MW coal source is plumbed into the grid via Matambo in Tete ...

I currently believe we are talking about phase I of the Tete 1200 project served by Vales Moatize mine - not the 'still on the drawing board' Ncondezi proposition ?

Thanks CF73 - hope you are right.

I wasn't seeing much mention of coal in this document ..

https://www.edm.co.mz/sites/default/files/documents/Reports%2C%20Reports%20and%20Accounts/BUSINESS%20PLAN%202020-2024.pdf

I've been trying to find out what is happening in Mozambique in terms of delivering their energy policy. Not a lot as far as I can see ( though they are quite good at producing paper work )

At this point I believe the various touted transmission lines will happen - eventually. They do need them but they are hopelessly far behind where they said they would be with regard to the driving projects - so I'm guessing no rush. Eg the big driver in Tete ie the 1,500Mw Mpanda Nkuwa Dam was supposed to be completed in 2024. It will now start in 2024.

So while I think a power line transmission order does not have much to do with NCCL I could see it dragging on for a while yet.

THEN

The day a transmission line order is placed EDM should be able to hand NCCL an offtake arrangement saying we guarantee to take X MW / per Y at a rate of $Z - now go and build a mine/power plant.

I not convinced that they will. If I look at documents from 3 years ago coal is definitely in the mix. If I look at more recent documents they talk about hydro,gas, wind and solar. Coal is ommited. Is this an oversight or a message?

At this point I'm thinking it is death by a 1000 cuts for NCCL investors. On the other hand if EDM place a transmssion line order and give NCCL an off take agreement on the back of it - I'm in.

Thanks CF73.

The board does seem to be frequented by more thoughtful commentators (as opposed to the 'its going to the moon' type of half wit)

The pitch does seem like a 'here is a problem - here is a solution' type of no brainer - but I do know from experience the danger of this eg Victoria Oil and Gas : 'here is a large city of 2.5m energy starved people in Douala Cameroon we have a large adjacent gas field - lets develop the gas and deliver the gas - everyone is a winner'. Hundreds of millions of £'s of fund raising and investment later ... it is a £15m company. The gas was developed, delivered and production ramped up - the local energy company simply didn't bother paying for the gas. It continues to exist mainly for the benefit of management but limps on from one fundraising to the next.

I've noted that NCCL is at all time lows. I'm trying to identify whether this is an opportunity or the universe is trying to tell me something.