Member Info for HunSen

It could be because their position has grown too much as a % of their investment - most funds have strict rules, I try to follow 3%, 5%, 10% max depending on my confidence, SLP is nearly at 10% of my portfolio and strictly speaking I should be looking to trim my holding and bank some profit.
But, I can break my rules at my risk.
Scottish Mortgage was in the same position with Tesla, Buffetology with Games Workshop...they were both forced sellers, I wouldn't be too concerned.

Hi LoggyLogbot, the forecasts are from SharePad. IMO, these metal prices will continue to rise, this converts direct to profit and free cash. There is no debt so additional free cash would normally be used for growth / expansion and/or returning value to shareholders - ideally as a dividend.
LunaNera is right, the financials of this company are very good.
DYOR

Yes, per share.

Chronocort on Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) agenda for meeting last week between 11th and 14th January . Not exactly sure where this puts us on the timescale but, its on the agenda and progressing.5.1.5. Hydrocortisone - EMEA/H/C/005105, OrphanApplicant: Diurnal Europe BVScope: Replacement therapy for congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) in adolescents aged12 years and over and adultsAction: For adoption of PRAC RMP AR, PRAC RMP assessment overview and advice to CHMPAbbreviations: AR Assessment Report, PRAC Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee, RMP Risk Management Plan(s)

Interesting article on the potential for platinum to rise to $2,000oz or higher.

"The platinum price could gain as much as 80% over the next four to five years, said Bloomberg News citing Neal Froneman, CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater."

SLP still showing a forecast 9.1% dividend yield on todays price, and a forecast dividend of 13.6p /12% for 2022 and 15.8p / 13.9% for 2023. I believe investors will continue to pile into this, especially if the platinum prices continue to rise - if the article is accurate, these dividends could increase further or the company could re-invest in additional growth.

Dividends should repay my original investment by 2023, after which I would be on a free ride - would take a lot to make me sell, if others are thinking the same, the price will continue to soar. The 15.8p forecast dividend for 2023 would be 5% on a 300p share price.

https://www.miningmx.com/trending/44790-sibanye-stillwaters-neal-froneman-says-platinum-could-surge-through-2000-oz/

Hey TD, can you post the full article, if I spend a pound, I will forget my password and end up with an ongoing subscription.

ALB

Aiming High, look at the 2 year chart. I think there is upside potential and if we are stuck with variations of this virus in the future, they may well be on all planes and in all public buildings. I opened a small position last week, still need to learn more but I hope it has some momentum for now.
DYOR

Hi Sarir,
still keeping an eye here, looks like you are up around 10% since our posts in December. I hope you got a chance to look at the tip I gave you? SLP. Steady increase of 47% in the past month (180% year on year), I believe it still needs to re-rate further as they are sitting on £55m cash (market cap only £218m), forecast dividend 10%, and the price of platinum and rhodium has continued to rise since the last update.
I believe the next two dividends will pay my entry price then I have a free ride.
Hopefully TOM will take off in the same way.
ALB

Here is a new Calvine Partners post;

https://www.calvinepartners.com/post/diurnal-group-and-chronocort?utm_campaign=8cd64799-54e6-493d-93f6-cef11f951295&utm_source=so&utm_medium=mail&cid=361b0d21-3561-415f-8921-1bcc20e4c532

I think diversification is key, I had allowed LLOY and DNL to become too large in my portfolio, but since then I have been buying elsewhere (and reducing LLOY) - I have held DNL and allowed new purchases to reduce my % exposure, it is still my largest single holding.
This diversification has more than off set the DNL dips (this really helps keep perspective), commodities are generating a lot of interest at the moment as the world starts getting back to business, copper and platinum in particular, I have gained 50% on SLP with more to come when they announce dividends, sold CAML for 40% profit (directors started selling), POLY (gold), JLP (platinum & chrome) more than doubled since November - demand from China, battery manufacturers, car exhaust systems, etc...
I have a heavy weighting to miners at the moment, but also warehousing, property, defence, online retail, share trading platforms, UK investment trusts, physical gold (ETF)...

There is a lot of recovery to come, across the board on UK companies, how the economy starts up (in what order) is the next question.
I noticed an IC article today regarding medical suppliers and how the pandemic has hit companies that supply non-emergency surgical equipment due to current restrictions. No doubt this is having an effect on non-emergency prescriptions and must be affecting DNL.
The UK has now vaccinated more than 3m people, things will start to return to normal and this will generate opportunities for DNL and the whole market IMO.
Once Chronocort is approved, I would also expect additional press coverage from the likes for IC.

Took me nearly 18 months to realise this is a Black Donkey, dropping LLOY (even at a 33% loss) has allowed me to recover the loss and gain 15% last year and 7% so far this year. There are too many opportunities elsewhere, this will never return to the 60's or 70's - even with dividends.

The sales do seem a little disappointing, total revenue for the six months at £1.2m, the forecast for the full year was £5.6m, that may be a hard target to hit now £4.4m in the second half. But, new territories, hopefully better supply.
I think the market will understand the Covid impact, I just hope the Management Team are keeping a tight control of costs.
I still see a lot of upside, the 2022 forecast is £15.7m revenue, 2023 forecast is £30.6m, so you see the Chronocort sales potential built into the forecast.
We just need hospitals and doctors surgeries to return to normal to see the full sales benefit, I do understand they are the same medication, only a different delivery method, but a doctor still needs to prescribe the change in medication (or delivery method) and in most of the world, I expect that involves meeting the doctor.

I still think this is a great investment, these are just very strange times.

https://www.calvinepartners.com/post/diurnal-business-update?utm_campaign=5a59178b-4ad1-4036-a1b1-7ad85f2263f2&utm_source=so&utm_medium=mail&cid=361b0d21-3561-415f-8921-1bcc20e4c532

Good post rubbish, people are looking for quality. Doctors aren’t going to bring patients on the old drug to switch to Alkindi unless there is a danger in not doing so. Uptake may be slower than expected.

I still think progress is very positive.

replace stars with vox markets - all one word

Hi All,

here is a link to a new Vox post on DNL, very good in my opinion, I typed a quick summary as I listened, some errors I am sure, but very positive.

Diurnal starts at 11:40 to 16:20
"Chronocort, filed with EMA, BREXIT now with UK authority. Made clear to market that they have filed with UK market. Still waiting for EU approval, balance of probability is they will get approval, this will be a big share price event.
Cortisone is a well-known drug, Diurnal specialise in better delivery to avoid spikes and troughs. Their delivery method is better. What’s good is they are working with a safe drug, it is just about the better delivery.
They filed for approval previously, it failed on some data, it was poured over with the company and regulators and they agreed the application should be submitted none the less, which is very encouraging – a very strong sign the regulator wants this to be approved.
Approval will be a step change in valuation, author is holder, could be multiples of current valuation."

https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/vadim-alexandre-on-covid19-and-diurnal-plus-glen-goodman-on-bitcoin-9e28fa5/

Looking back at the Alkindi process, it received CHMP on 15th December 2017 (followed by a 21% gap up) and final EMA approval 60 days later on 13th February 2018 (followed by a 18% increase). Source: sharepad
Chronocort being much bigger market could see the share price head back towards these highs - 215p at the time but dilution needs to be taken into account.
ALB

I have spent a couple of weekends now trying to understand the European Medicines Agency (EMA) process. Here is a summary of the current situation with Chronocort;
- DNL RNS Number : 3047I, published on 1st April 2020 stated that Chronocort had passed the validation stage. This means all the required data and information is in place for the process to continue.
- the next EMA stage is scientific evaluation and according to the EMA website, this can take UP TO 210 ACTIVE days
- the next stage the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) issues a statement whether the medicine may be authorised or not (there is no indicated timescale, so I assume this is just confirming the scientific evaluation).
- the final stage is the European Commission decision, this can take UP TO 67 days from the CHMP statement.

So, the date range could be from right now (if 100 days or more were saved in the UP TO 277 day process above) to 13th April, if the process ran to the deadline (allowing also for weekends and Christmas).

However, it appears companies normally issue a RNS when CHMP statement is issued (searching for keyword CHMP on Investegate).

If that is the case, then we should expect CHMP announcement before 26th January (allowing for weekends and Christmas). If that is correct, then final approval would be 23rd April at the latest.

It is of course possible that the EMA could be well ahead of these (up to) timelines, especially as much of the work has been done in the past.

The Hardman report confirms that the next milestone is CHMP - by my calculations, this should be any time between now and 26th January - not accounting for EU public holidays.

ALB

I think you are right, volume continues to increase to well over the average daily volume last year, just a few weeks to the next interim report and we are within the window of major expected news.
A good week, more to come.
GLA

Agreed, very nice to see so many buys as well as the overall trading volume increasing - this is a good technical sign that the price increase is being supported in the market. There is also a big increase in #DNL posts on twitter.
The BREXIT trading distraction is gone, although Covid-19 continues to be a nightmare, the better news for DNL on Covid-19 is that it is a life long medical treatment for a life long condition. The pandemic may well slow progress a little, but these drugs are still needed.
It will be interesting to see how much resistance we have at 60p, the next level to break will be at 68p.
IMO, people are looking for good value to take through 2021, this should provide solid price support.
GLA