Member Info for HunSen

Hi Debarra,
RG is often blamed for share price movement, however, he has already dropped off the 3% reporting criteria (as a significant shareholder), he has sold out and I believe he has done very well. Others are new investors, or are building their investments. 3% is around 4m shares, I really don't think he has this many.

https://www.diurnal.co.uk/investor-and-media-relations/investors/share-information/

On other boards I also see market makers blamed for the share price movement, an example last week on another board, MMs were blamed for "trapping" investors on a day when there were only 18 trades!

To put your mind at rest, I believe you have made a great investment at this price.

My belief is that investors are trading momentum and the "rotation" from quality to value. I said as much on (or around) "vaccine day", but I did not have the nerve to trade out of DNL. But, as I already hold the likes of LLOY, SMDS, LGEN, my gains have outweighed my losses on DNL.

RG is a professional fund manager, he has rules (perhaps no more than 5% on one holding) and I am sure he has better access to the Management Team than you or I do. BUT, many other professional fund managers are still building a stake and perhaps RG spotted an opportunity elsewhere - who knows.

I am not so worried about RG. You may well be correct that Pharma has had a bit of a sell off - in which case your timing is great.

I think the next major "inflection point" will be Chronocort approval, Japan will come in time.

The good news is approval is due Q1, this is (hopefully) after some kind of BREXIT result and investors will be looking for the next thing.

Perhaps I would be more worried about the may investors who paid 60p on the recent open offer looking for an exit on the way back up - but I am not worried about RG.

ALB

Hi Balanced,

thank you for the link to the video, it was well worth watching and his 3 rules on selling are good. I also like his risk - reward table, I have never seen it presented like this before and I may take this to one of my sharesoc meetings.
I saw Escape Hunt at a Growth and Innovation event in London early this year - looks risky to me and they must be really hurting right now. Post Covid, I'm not sure if people will want to go from locked down to locked in a room :-) - still, who knows.
On Rightmove, I disagree (he states their profit dropped), their revenue and profit has increased every full year (except one) since 2004 - this shows it is always good to DYOR.

I also like his comments on bulletin boards, quite true.

Thanks again.

Hi Albino,
I just got the same in my inbox, it's great to see us moving along the planned path - it will be interesting to see take-up figures, hopefully DNL will be able to report this in February interims.
ATB

Hi Grace,
thank you for the kind feedback (two times now) and Balanced, thank you for helping with a great answer - I am working funny hours at the moment and I am struggling to get time.
Grace, my post of 50% approval was very general and not directed at DNL as such. It illustrates there is a risk (that's all). I do think this risk is very much mitigated with DNL but I don't fully understand how the process arrived at this point (DNL in particular).
Like you say, there is poor performance on Orphan applications, but this is a re-formulation (modified release), so the drug is safe , proven - we just need effective...

One of the benefits of having this discussion - you reminded me that DNL presented some findings at ENDO Online earlier this year (March I believe), I registered at the time and there were some great outcomes, including;

"Additional benefits of modified-release hydrocortisone included restoration of menstruation in 4 patients compared with 1 patient on standard glucocorticoid regimen, and 2 partner pregnancies compared with none for patients on standard glucocorticoid regimen."

A summary (including the above) is here https://www.endocrinologyadvisor.com/home/conference-highlights/endo-2020/benefits-of-modified-release-hydrocortisone-for-classical-cah/

You have also reminded me of the very first time I met Martin Whitaker at one of his presentations, I asked just one question on the justification (to medical authorities) on the additional cost of Chronocort over the current medicine - included in his answer was the fact that it could change patient outlook, some could return to work and as you pointed out "fewer sick days" - the ENDO presentation supported his answer with real life results.

On the portfolio, DNL has become too big a holding and therefore has become a bigger risk. I hope to address this at some point.

I said a few weeks ago that there is a good market opportunity, we have now several vaccines, the US election is (kind of) over we are in the BREXIT end-game and the market likes to generate a nice "Santa Rally" in December.
During the last year, people have held cash, some held gold, many held growth (including Tech), it seems now that people are returning and /or switching to value for the recovery and hopefully a rally at Christmas - which also sees BREXIT.

I don't think DNL will benefit from this rally (my gut feel and very low trading volumes), there are some AIM posters elsewhere predicting a break-out on DNL but his post is not supported with much - I hope he is right.

I commented before that I was not a buyer (at any price), that is because I am buying the recovery and DNL is too large a holding for me now - along with existing holdings, this diversification is working for me. I am angry at my self for a lack of discipline on this - with the wrong share, it could have caused a lot of damage to my portfolio.

I am also not a seller (thanks to some of the contributors here puttin

Hi Albino,
I have just read the below from Scored and it is ABSOLUTE RUBBISH. How can ANYONE possibly have been in the game long enough to know who is holding? With that kind of ability, surely he would be better at predicting the share price? How do you prove this god given ability? Why would I want to (even if a chat board could) drive down this price when their are so many FTSE shares in recovery making gains every day?

"Albinio 74 reason being as poster has sold and wants to buy cheaper/ I BEEN in this game long enough to know who is holding . Nothing wrong with selling but its not nice to put doubt in peoples mind when one has sold ! HIS game is to buy cheaper any way i will keep adding as i know dnl is a gem and one. to keep"

I think it is a correct approach TO put doubts in minds - if you can overcome these doubts, you really do have a winning opportunity, this is why I play devils advocate. I fully understand what (hopefully) could go well for DNL, I am familiar with the presentations, the product line and the potential. I am also interested in what could go wrong. Aren't you?

Albino is debating, Balanced does add supporting evidence to his posts - while it's difficult seeing my investment drop - I am more confident when people are posting counter-arguments and valid information.

There have been 68 trades from £2.61 to £20k plus today (most of them small trades) - this tells us nothing of the future, it only tells us trading volume is low. If you think the future can be predicted "looking at the buys" - you are relying on luck.

I don't give advise (except DYOR), I don't try to calculate or guess target prices (I have posted the Sharepad target price) and the standard understanding is that "you can lose money as well as make it". I haven't once said the share price will drop and I am concerned that it is dropping.

Ask yourself honestly, have you carried out the same due diligence buying shares as buying a house? Buying a car? Someone "took a punt" only this week!

I see very little (although some do) evidence that people are willing to have a healthy debate and share information or thoughts about this company.

My motives are absolutely genuine - to better understand my investment and the the choices ahead.

Hi Balanced,

thank you for posting this, I also received a similar assurance from another investor yesterday and I accept that there is a good probability of approval .

The feedback I received was "Yes, it was a shock that it (Chronocort) did not meet the p3 endpoint, however, this was down to trial design, not efficiency which was clearly demonstrate. Regulators seem to agree hence they have confirmed that no further trial is required. Looks very likely to get reg approval in Q1 now (In His Opinion)."

There is little opinion out there (I mean numbers of people) and what worries me is that if this is highly likely - why is the share price dropping. My theory on that (well reported in press) is that people are switching from growth to value on the back of all the vaccine news - luckily, I am holding a lot of "value" shares, LLOY, LGEN, XAR, etc which are more than offsetting the large drop on DNL since the placing.

I think and hope this is just poor timing - the rally in value could be predicted, it was a matter of when.

ATB

Scoredagain,
a solid well informed contribution AGAIN from you - is this because;

"Im clued up on shares this is forming a base now base was 53 as i told my friend days ago" posted by you on 13th November was proved wrong?

Your recent posts have included;

"See book was getting bought as i said .. THEY HAD THERE FUN AND GAMES it will move up now"
"Thankyou balanced 66 happy to hold as dnl is a little gem which in the end will come good .. FED up chasing rainbows dnl ticks all the boxes for me . MY target year end after a few open offer shares will be sold by a few 65/68" - this is your target for year end - both also posted on 13th November (the SP continued to move down).

"GOT a feeling japan news soon that could be a very large mkt huindreds of millions of dollars ." - posted by you on 1st October. The full pipeline market is worth £3.2b BUT the current product Alkindi is worth around £19.7m.

"Japanesse news soon big buys and delayed trades tell me all i need to know from yesterday . WILL add a few more here as this will rerate in november waiting for eton to start . Dnl is not a dream like others bosses here deliver" - posted 13th October when the price was 68p (Will re-rate).

"NOLUPUS no worries watch the trades news i feel is soon ." "WE have a buyer happy to take great volumes here . Million plus bought today by buyer ... jap news eton moving frw 1 .25 will be hit fast" - 13th October, you posted this on the day the price started to fall - couldn't be more inaccurate.

"GLAD the times thinks like ME --A rare gem WISHED this was coming tuesday AS was buying more in morning OH WELL still buy but guess i have to pay slighty more . All the best longs dnl is a real gem as i always said .But i rather we form a base instead of going up to fast .That way we can hold our price .IMO 1,25 first quarter" - 11th October

since then, your price target has dropped from 125p to 75p...with no explanation

"HI nolupus you will do very well here im sure .. IT IS what it is atm not annoyed it will claw back stronger . Lesson learned for future wont buy open offer shares again . MY rerate times are 2021 and should see us nearer 75p still stick my 65/68 target year end atb .. Back IN A FEW DAYS" - Last Thursday

Your "system" is watching the buys, but despite posting all the unqualified ramping above, you posted "We have news very soon I DID DETAIL LAST NIGHT MY POINTS -ITS been lost not doing it again see for yourself I have a very good system compared to others who the top guys use." - Last Tuesday. (most posters are happy to share there market beating methods).

**** Happy to read ANY good posts supported by good information or methods - I see none of that above. Recently just ramping and overuse of the words "RERATE" - I can make my own decisions to sell or not (I certainly don't need your advise, thanks) ****

All - PLEASE do your own research. The share does have upside IMO but short term downside - I don't think buyers will

Hi Albino,

I really appreciate your patient debate and feedback, this is quite useful I believe... but I don't agree with these points;

1. You have avoided the point, the crash was due to Chronocort failing phase III. Alkindi was already in the pipeline and already in the share price (albeit at Phase II) - both drugs are just a re-formulation. Alkindi passed as it offers the benefit of precise dosing for children. I'm not sure Chronocort can demonstrate a compelling advantage over the current drugs - I believe this is why it failed last time.

2. Where is your evidence of this? In 2018 (the time in question) DNL had it's highest cash balance at £17.3m (and a reduction to zero debt) - it has never been higher (in the period 2013 - 2020) - so why did it clearly need cash? The share price collapse is not a reflection of the P&L - it was all about Chronocort.

3. This could be debated, the statistics are 50% pass/failure. Still, I am not sure what benefit Chronocort can deliver over the existing treatments.

4. The only major region left is Japan. Partnerships with companies like Eton are a means to an end and the downside to using such deals is that Eton takes a chunk of the profits. Margin on these drugs are around 80%, but Eton will only pay a maximum royalty under the deal of 19%. The Eton deal got the product to market but at a cost.

I am familiar with the Diurnal response to the previous Phase III failure, this is the first question the CEO is asked in every presentation I have attended "what happened in 2018?". The response is vague, "an error in the data".
Phase III is normally a randomised, double blind sample of up to 3,000 patients taking the trial drug, the existing drug and / or a placebo. I don't really understand what "an error in the data" could mean, but you would hope a trail costing £50m would be reliable and well run with a dependable outcome.
I don't think Chronocort has been re-formulated since the last application, so what has changed and why has it taken another 2 years? It would be great if someone can find information on this or theories on what actually happened.

ATB

You say the podcast has zero value. I think the discussion on the price collapse from £2 in 2019 is a valid point that all shareholders or potential investors should be aware of. That price drop was due to Chronocort failing to meet the primary objective of a phase III trial - it has already failed phase III once (on effectiveness). The fall in SP was 82% - this is good and bad news as it also shows the potential for significant upside IF Chronocort is approved.

The fortunes of the company are hinged on Chronocort, a failure (again) would be very damaging and very costly. I have found several reports which state 50% of phase III applications fail (effectiveness or safety). Phase III is not de-risked and Chronocort has had setbacks before on phase III.

It's very easy to qualify their statement that Pharma carries risk, it is well acknowledged and widely published - I think it's a valid point to state the risk (example);

"For a large pharma company such as Bristol-Myers Squibb – which announced the failure of a Phase 3 study of its cancer immunotherapy drug Opdivo in August, sparking an eventual 35% drop in its share price – lost investments due to drug development failures can be absorbed to some extent. But for smaller firms, a single late-stage trial flunk can be disastrous. Biopharma firm NewLink Genetics was forced to lay off 100 employees – 43% of its total workforce – after the failure of a Phase 3 trial assessing its own immunotherapy treatment in May last year." Source: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/featurecounting-the-cost-of-failure-in-drug-development-5813046/

I have also been finding liabilities tucked away in the notes to the financial statement in the annual report.

Property leases seem to be hidden £98k this year, and €1.3m for the new capsulation machine (effectively a debt) - both seem to be off the balance sheet and tucked into the back of the report. I believe this is an extra £358k hidden cost this year. The reason I am digging is that a Sharepad indicator suggests "there is a strong likelihood that the accounts are being manipulated". While hiding lease payments isn't illegal, it is still a debt-like liability that has been kept off the balance sheet.

I would still say we are looking at a binary outcome which carries risk - my "gut feel", having followed this company for years is that there will be a positive outcome - but I have little evidence to support this and there is plenty of clear evidence that this comes with risk.

ATB

What I mean by views supported by evidence is not a "gut feel" based on "looking at the buys" and then not followed up with a method / system. Is your money not worth backing it up with facts?

I'm happy to hear "gut feel" but please state the same. Looking at the buys is like looking a tea leaves or cutting open a goat.

My apologies for being so negative - ATB.

They have a valid point, new drugs are binary and this was shown in the past with DNL.

I have held DNL for years, I have attended presentations and met the Board and the only things that have been changed are Alkindi approval and launch, plus Ditest development. The POTENTIAL market of Alkindi is £163m. That is all we currently have - plus some distribution deals and investment on a production line equipment at a co-manufacturer in Germany.

Future markets are Chronocort CAH £351m, 2021 (currently a binary outcome), Chronocort AI £2,767m TBC (currently a binary outcome). Chronocort failed a trial in 2019 but this was put down to "data".

Ditest, hypothyroidism and Cushing's treatments are EARLY pipeline, still many years off and TBC (very much binary). That being the case, even the DNL paid brokers warn that "further funding may be required".

As I said before, the only change is that Alkindi is approved. This is milestone, it has proved the company has good management. On this, the SP has moved from the 25p - 35p range to the 45p-55p range. That is a 66% increase - I think Alkindi may be well priced in. In 2021 we are forecast to make a loss of 4.3p per share.

People on these boards harp on about RG being the bad man selling his stock - what if he was right?

I hate to be the only REALIST not using the power of positive thinking here, I do believe in this company - but there is still risk. I am currently holding a large number of shares that are well outside my portfolio % rules (due to the open offer).

FCFf was projected to be £(4.7)m at the end of this year (I believe before the £8m raise) and was forecast to be £(6.8)m in 2021. That leaves little margin for error. In the current Covid-19 and BREXIT climate, do we really think costs will come in lower than forecast?

One possible path would see Chronocort approval - which would be great news - plus another fundraise and dilution (unless you want to take part).

I learnt around 15 years ago that there are 3 trading positions, buy, sell and do nothing. I am currently not a buyer (at any price). I am stuck between "do nothing" and sell a chunk to re-balance my portfolio. I also learnt to ask the reasons NOT to buy a share.

I agree with some of the views on this (and other) boards - the upside is significant but current estimates range from 88p (independently calculated by Sharepad) to 200p + from a broker paid by DNL. But there may also be a downside - people think about the money to be made but not the potential losses.

Believe me, I do not wish to be proven correct! Look at a 2 year chart, trading range from 21p to 46p. A six month chart shows we are close to a down trend on low volumes - the market is undecided (not some mystery seller - look at the trades) - we are seeing lower highs and lower lows - it is no longer stuck in the podcast trading range of 60p to 70p - I see support at 43p.

I would be interested in views supported by evidence.

DNL featured in a new podcast found through one of the twitter groups I follows, the introduction is also quite interesting;

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1389826/6472237

DNL starts at 10m 45s, but jump in at 9m to hear some thoughts on directors buys within pharma. He makes a couple of mistakes, he clearly isn't familiar with the company in depth (he admits this) and he has his own opinion.
He also discusses the price collapse from £2 a few years ago (which shows what happens when an application is rejected).
The presenter traded DNL between 60p and 70p and gives a few notes of caution on pharma in general.

The podcast also covers; DDDD, ORPH, IXI, DNL, TSLA, SOLO, BLNK, FUV, PLUG and a few others.

ATB

I cannot verify the contents, it seems quite genuine but no link to the ORIGINAL source. The writer appears to have been taking notes during a webinar held by Eton. I have included a link to the tweet (dated 14th November) but I would be keen on finding the original content.

“Turning now to our lead product Alkindi…we have been inundated by enquires from paediatric endocrinologists and how they are very excited to get the hands on Alkindi Sprinkle.
We are pleased to announce that we expect to have the product available before the end of the month.
The sales reps were released October 23rd and already have held or scheduled meetings with 120 of the 800 endocrinologists in the US. The feedback from those meetings has been overwhelmingly positive and we expect the patients to be enrolled immediately once the product becomes available.
The launch of Alkindi will be transformational for the company. The Alkindi opportunity will be transformational for the company…the Alkindi opportunity sets us up for a major 2021.
Alkindi launch weeks away.
Up to 10,000 patients in US mg basis pricing. Believe there will be a quick ramp up towards the $100 million + market.
Endocrinology has not really been affected by pandemic and still have remote appointments."

https://twitter.com/online_antz/status/1327618298666754049/photo/1

Hi Balanced,
I appreciate you clarifying those tags for me. I'm planning to drop my premium subscription on LSE (level 2 being the only real benefit), I added Alpha to my IC subscription and Share Pad quite recently - LSE chat boards can be quite useful but there is often a lack of supporting evidence with posts (like reading tea leaves).
I agree, DNL is looking less speculative as time goes on and despite my willingness to discuss both sides of the argument, I am confident that it will provide a good return.
Do you use twitter? Try following ****ney rebel - really well informed posts.
ATB

Hi Balanced,
I was considering Stockopedia but my investors club gets a discount on Sharepad so I took that option (both are very good I believe, members of my group also use Stockopedia). My only worry on your site is (under DNL and the price) is they rate it "Highly Speculative" and a "Momentum Trap" - the latter is certainly true for the last few weeks.

Long term - I am confident though, however, drug approvals are binary events and come with that risk.

To start to answer your question, sales take time to come through. Chronocort for CAH is due for approval Q1 and I should imagine that could slip given the current problems - then we have to rely on marketing to GPs to get patients onto the medicine. I think we would be lucky to see sales Q3 2021 from Chronocourt - but they may follow the same model and build stocks in advance.
Chronocourt is also being presented as a treatment for AI, a much bigger market, flagged for Q4 2022.

Also remember the figures quoted by DNL are "addressable markets", they need to get customers off their existing treatments, that means the customers/patients need to be experiencing a problem or have a need - then their GP must prescribe. GP's don't go to patients, patients come to GP's.

I am not able to confidently answer you question on where these forecasts come from, but, a forecast is just that (like the weather forecast) - different forecasts on different platforms. I will ask my group though - I am meeting with them (on Zoom) tomorrow evening.
ALB

Hi Balanced,
I'm afraid the only broker coverage I can find are brokers paid by DNL (Hardman and Calvine Partners) and they are a bit vague on this .
The best place to look is on the DNL website / presentations on investor relations, this explains the revenue pipeline and potential revenue by product - they do produce very clear communications and have been consistent over the years I have been holding.
Share Pad has forecast for 6m revenue 2021*, 15m in 2022 and 30m in 2023. Revenue may actually DROP* next year if this is correct due to the milestone payment from Eton this year. I'm hoping we will smash the 2021 (we have out-performed sales to date) but Covid-19 is still hitting GP's/prescriptions.

Share Pad has a price target of 93p and is generally positive - however, investors are seeking momentum elsewhere...

ATB

Hi Chester,
this is a good summary of where we currently sit, Japan is still a prospect but COVID-19 is causing issues with making these deals, especially if travel is required - annual report explains potential partners have not been able to visit production facilities, etc. It is also causing approval delays (see section on mitigation).
I agree with your timing, I would say perhaps for safety, news in the first quarter.
ATB

No, I did not sell any shares.

I am just tired of reading un-supported posts (mostly about non-existent sellers) every time the price drops. Then euphoria and "told you so's" every time it ticks up for a day.

You say the buys are telling you all you need to know? Please could you explain some more? Too me the volume looks low.

I'm not chasing rainbows elsewhere (if the comment was aimed at me), however, I'm doing ok on a few other holdings.

GLA

There seems to be some pressure from Barclays and others to resume dividends, also the financial regulator in Sweden has just announced it will allow banks to resume payments.
There is plenty of news on the subject and I believe an update should be due any time?

Or just follow the link in my previous post which has just returned.