Member Info for HunSen

Hi Gunner,
on your last point, they haven't totally developed this in house, I had some help with some research on the Covid-19 project, lead to the following conclusions;
- I believe the DNA sampler is made by Oxford Nanopore
- the air sampler by Coriolis
- the software developed by Earlham institute
- Kromak have licenced the above as their platform.

Credit for this research goes to someone else.

Interesting links on the tech:
https://nanoporetech.com/products/minion-comparison
https://www.bertin-instruments.com/product/air-samplers/coriolis-micro-air-sampler/
https://www.earlham.ac.uk/oxford-nanopore-minion

If I am correct, the effect of the open offer is as follows;

Offer = 1 share for every 17 held @15p (plus optional excess application)
Current shares in issue = 344,600,000 @ 16.7p
New shares to be issued = 66,666,667
New total shares (post issue) = 411,266,667
Current market cap = £57.6m

Effect on individual share price at same same market cap = 14p (that's dilution)

BUT, the price was 19.65p before the news and the market cap was £67.7m, so that means the share price after offer SHOULD be around 16.5p.

On this basis, the offer is OK. I will take up the new shares and I will also apply for a little excess.

Simon Thompson believed the share price could go as high as 30p POST DILUTION this is 25.1p, so I believe there is a good margin of safety with a possible 66% upside on the offer price.

Never good feeling like your pockets being picked, but the statement along with the offer is quite positive.

ALB, DYOR

Looking at all the sells yesterday, we may have been the only people who didn't know.

I also purchased recently and was sitting on a tidy profit until this open offer announcement, I haven't done the maths on dilution yet, guess I will have to take a loss or pay up for more shares. I have confidence in the latest product and I believe there will be demand - just not sure that the management team can deliver.

Fretters, I was typing on a phone yesterday but I was correct about the charges, maximum of £42 per year on shares held in a dealing account or ISA. So that's higher than your Halifax account and as you don't trade regularly perhaps not the best option for you.
https://www.youinvest.co.uk/dealing-account/charges-and-rates there is a calculator on their website to calculate your charges.
Other things to consider - the £85k guarantee on funds held with bank, if you bank with Halifax, perhaps better to move shares elsewhere?

AJ Bell ISA charges for shares are 0.25% per annum, to a maximum of £3.50 per month.
Depends on your portfolio but you could be paying more. You do get access to shares magazine for free but as you don’t trade much, not sure if it adds value.

I use AJ Bell, they are very good and seem to be gaining more customers than HL.
I will post the charging structure over the weekend. There may also be some incentive for transferring.

My wife had funds with Halifax and we have finally got rid of them after 3 tax years of selling. Every trade had errors, most recently forms lost in the post.

Hi Chester, I agree, if the US is like the UK, I believe doctors will need to see the patient, especially a child, before changing or prescribing medicine. Especially as wrong dosing this can lead to adrenal crisis, etc. This is hard during lockdown.
However, if the patient is already at risk, then a prescription is very much needed. Eton do have sales reps, so they will be pushing doctors where they can.
I would speculate that sales will be affected slightly - but I believe the market is expecting this.
ALB

95% of trades yesterday appeared to be buys, a total of 705k shares at £441k - it looks like the buyers are back.

Another interesting point, the half year results are due 23rd February, IMO this will be before the Chronocort decision as the next CHMP meeting is 23rd to 26th February - according to the last CHMP minutes, I believe all the questions on Chronocort have been answered and it is now marked "for adoption" (I'm not too sure what that means but sounds positive).

My concern on the results is that Covid may have slowed initial sales - but I guess the market knows that and it will be taken into consideration.

Considering the above, it is a very good sign that buyers are back.

Another Calvine post just expanding on the news today
https://www.calvinepartners.com/post/diurnal-group-jcem-publication?utm_campaign=b16dbb41-5184-4d52-bb77-a77024353f36&utm_source=so&utm_medium=mail&cid=361b0d21-3561-415f-8921-1bcc20e4c532

Good to see several chunky £10k buys too

Been running a sharepad screen looking for companies with increased volume, DNL has previously been a little light on volume but yesterday showed 50% more trading volume than the last 10 day average and today is already above that average (at 10:30).
Increased volume should support the price and confirm the trend, breaking 68p will be the next challenge.

On approval, I believe the next CHMP meeting is the end of February.

Simon Thompson picks his bargain shares of 2021 this week, would be good timing if he picks DNL. I will let you know the full list Friday I believe.

Hi Foxrod, Chester,
I have only taken a quick look on Sharepad, Avacta and Evgen look like they are early stage developing something, their revenue and profit charts look a little like DNLs in 2014 to 2018. TRX looks quite interesting, forecast growing revenues and improved profits - possibly profitable in 2023? I haven't really dug much further than looking at graphs and the summary page of financials - had a busy weekend fixing stuff at home.
I will look at these 3 in more detail when I get a chance.
ALB

Hi Chester,
I know reneuron after a Shares event in London (seems like a lifetime ago but perhaps 2 years), I liked the look of it and will take another look over the weekend.
I will also look at the others, thanks.
I have POLY as my gold exposure but I can look at another.
ALB

BTW, 125p isn't out of the question, another approval will show the Management Team is consistent in delivery - that also has some value. What I am hoping is that if Chronocort is approved, the Management will be vindicated and the press will start to write more about DNL.

This is only the third AIM company in this position, consider a second approval, the Chronocort extension and DITEST in the pipeline - that will be a Management Team people want to follow - I have always liked their consistency.

No worries Scored, another member did the same for me when I was having doubts - I think DNL has a nice risk / reward ratio.

Out of interest, what other shares are you looking at / holding?

I have been doing very well on SLP (mining), 80% gain in 3 or 4 months, I have also opened positions in JLP (more mining) which I hope will go through the same rise as SLP in the next year. Nickel will also be in demand for vehicle batteries, so I am in HZM (yet another miner), I got into KMK last week (nuclear / biological detectors) as they are developing a detector for Covid-19 and received funding from governments + 20% in a week.
As you can see, I am into mining at the moment, they say there will be a commodity boom as the world gets back to business - but it comes with similar risks to oil. SLP and JLP are both platinum group metals, the forecasts are very bullish for the medium term, heavy use in catalytic converters (the ones that get stolen) as tighter emission rules start to kick in.
I like the look of BLV and WJG (AIM listed estate agents and builders/property) and have small positions in both.

It would be good to hear what other holders here are looking at.

GLA.

Hi Scored,
the whole market is down today on (what should have been obvious) fears of a double dip recession. We are still on hold until we receive news and the fluctuations in price are typical of AIM.
I have just looked at a 1 year chart for DNL and plotted FTSE Biotech and Pharma groups against it and IF we performed at the same level as the index, our share price would be 26p today. We have massively outperformed the sector.
Dilution has also played a depressing factor in the share price, since the 210p days, DNL has placed a total of 82,321,021 new shares in 4 rounds of fundraising. IF the new shares weren't issued, todays share price would be around 150p - that sounds bad but its not too bad.
I believe there is 40% upside to bring us back to the same level as in March 2018.
In March 2018, we did not have ANY approved drugs - just a pipeline and we know Chronocort was the issue that hit the share price (unjustified) back in 2018. I believe our market cap is still £33.6m away from where it was (or 24p per share).

This puts our NOTHING CHANGED target price at around 85p - BUT, plenty has changed;

+ Alkindi has been approved, showing the Management Team CAN deliver
+ New drugs are in the pipeline
+ The Chronocort issue seems to be resolved, we are just waiting for the final approval*
+ New investors are piling in
+ RG has mostly gone, and he has re-deployed his funds well (e.g. STOB a one bagger since March)
+ Our Management Team are well incentivised with a LTIP aligned with shareholder interests (they are rewarded when we are rewarded)
*I believe the market has a long memory on this point and is waiting for certainty on Chronocort.

So much has changed that we are heading towards profitability, 2023 forecast earnings per share of 2p - that has to be worth something more on the share price. Plus DITEST is such a huge opportunity that the share price should benefit with each stage of approval.
If things go to plan, I believe 85 - 99p is achievable by mid year - 65% in the short term is worth holding for.

I said in October that I wouldn't buy any more DNL, but I have held and diversified with new funds, this has helped (me keep perspective) and my portfolio ended 15% up for the year (in March it was 56% down).

I fully understand your frustration, we are in Q1 - it's the home straight and you have around 60 days to wait. I would seriously consider your options so near to the end, but there are still risks, mainly;
- early sales could be impacted by Covid
- Chronocort still needs to be approved (the lesser risk I believe)

I also have way too much invested in DNL and may reduce on the news - not because I don't believe in the business but because it is such a big % of my portfolio and that carries all kinds of risks.

You have said yourself before, this is a long term game.
ATB

RG is below 3% there will be no RNS for RG, it is below the threshold for reporting.

I think their holding was valued at around 7.3m https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/SLP/ownership or 2.29% of SLP shares owned by them, Fidelity Special Value Trust is also 17% geared, perhaps they are looking to pay down some of that debt?