Member Info for HunSen

Hi Scored, yes a good presentation, no surprises.
I use SharePad (not pro) and I use this to do a lot of screening, so I like that much of the data can be exported to Excel where I do my research then send my shortlist of TIDMs back to SharePad.
I am still learning after six months with SharePad.
I hardly use SharePad on my phone, I tend to do research at weekends and early in the morning, so it works well for me.
ATB.

CHMP meet on the last 3 days of the month, so Chester, I think you are right. DNL said they answered the 180 day questions on time so we should have a result before April Fools. I hope that’s a good sign.

DNL starts about 1h4m. Presenter holds I believe.
Risk but balance of probability, should go the right way.
https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/paul-hill-russ-mould-vadim-alexandre-1c673ca/
**********

ALB

DNL and OBD. SNG was joint third, if you use Twitter, search @ConsultMattR to see the screen shot.

Something positive while we wait for approval, I am a big SharePad fan and I recently found their "comparison" tool, ideally used for comparing very similar companies (i.e. competition). So, just for fun, I compared the following;
DNL, DDDD, SNG, EVG, IMM, N4P, OBD.
The tool compares headline data, confidence, valuation, safety (debt) and quality.

Guess which two companies came joint 1st?

Skid, they already put the full amount aside days ago (not in available cash), now they have charged me as a transaction, it’s in my transaction history.

I think it will be concluded before that, Monday is just reporting the results. My excess is now showing in AJ Bell and they have taken payment.
It appears I got the full amount requested, 25x my basic entitlement.

There should be some excess shares (due to people not being able to take up their basic entitlement) but I expect it will be scaled back significantly. I have applied for 25 x my basic entitlement over two accounts. I will be happy to receive anything above the basic.
Basic entitlement now showing in my account, but not able to trade (I will hold anyway).

Only just had a chance to read through the report.

The report states that the 180 day questions for Chronocort were answered to CHMP on time during February. We now have some numbers to work with. At the 180 day questions, the "clock" stops. When the questions are answered the clock starts again.
The CHMP decision is given around day 210 (30 days after the clock starts) however, CHMP only meets once a month I believe (the last 3 or 4 days of the month).
As there is no time in February to have 30 days, we should expect the CHMP approval at the meeting scheduled for the end of March. I have already checked the CHMP agenda for February and DNL is not listed.

On the share price, DNL have an uncanny ability to release news on down days. Profit (or loss) has increased but this was expected and communicated in the January update, so I would expect some share price recovery with the rest of the market.

On Alkindi sales, UK and Germany increased by 20% AGAINST Covid-19 restrictions, so we should expect a big revenue boost when GPs finally start seeing their patients again (worldwide). Gross margin increased, if this is maintained, it may lead to beating profit expectations when revenues pick up (at least before Ditest development costs come out). The balance sheet shows that they have built inventories from £1.2m to £1.66m, this extra stock should help meet demand when the world starts to unlock. They also purchased a new capsule machine (hidden somewhere in the last annual report), so they have plenty of capacity to manufacture and now at an improved COGS.

Quite a lot to be positive about , we were expecting sales to be hit by Covid-19 and the company confirmed that in the January update.

If/when Chronocort falls into place, the business plan will be fully on course.

ALB

I guess you are on RNS watch this morning! I am working, hopefully I will catch up around 8. Let’s hope for some good news.
ALB

Hey Scored,
great to hear about some buying, I agree things are looking up. In terms of major holdings, a buyer would need to hold 4.1m shares before they have to report their holding via RNS. I believe the initial rule is when you reach 3%, then every 1% above this.
Looking forward to some results next week.
ALB

I believe DNL/Chronocort may have been discussed again by Committee for Orphan Medicinal Products (COMP) in a very recent meeting but I cannot find any more than this;
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/agenda/agenda-comp-agenda-16-18-february-2021-meeting_en.pdf
I don't know if this is in advance of the CHMP meeting at the end of the month, perhaps there will be an update on 23rd but I very much doubt a decision.
ALB

The committee meets on the last 3 days of each month.

Sorry, last one! Should you decide to join sharesoc, there is also a zoom meeting right after the DNL presentation (normally without the director) for members to discuss the company/presentation. As a whole, I find members very balanced, very evidence based, professional and very helpful.
Along with my subscription to SharePad, ShareSoc is possibly my best investment subscription so far.
If you want any more info, twitter is also helpful.

@ConsultMattR

I forgot to say, DNL are doing a video presentation for ShareSoc (I am a member) on the 27th April - I'm not sure if these are open to the public. The link to the events page is below.

https://www.sharesoc.org/events/

Hi Scored, Albino, Chester, I agree with you all, it is a little frustrating but Chronocort is the game changer, I believe the following;
- news on Chronocort late Q1 (sorry to say, I was disappointed to hear this also)
- DNL is then funded to profitability
- However, funding may be required to progress DITEST

I cannot post supporting evidence but I can recommend "research tree", I am intending to sign up but they do a FREE 7 day limited trial - I am impressed and given my portfolio it will make sense for me. I did not have to enter payment details for my free trial.

Scored, you must own a big chunk of DNL by now, I admire your commitment but I hope you are diversifying also.

ALB

I think the whole market is a bit flat today, only two of my shares are up today.

We are literally in uncharted territory so psychological resistance such as 100p, 125p, 150p would apply I guess.

Ricardofin, that's no problem, HOWEVER, since I wrote this I have seen some very credible FORECASTS of a 4.1c special and 4c final in August. At current exchange that's 2.962p - not far from your number.
My looking into this came up for the same reason that the SP may be punished if the dividend is less that "expectations", however, I think it will be all in the packaging - as long as there is a sensible plan that delivers long term growth and returns the SP may well hold up well. Consensus target is 198p so I am much more comfortable now.

Ricardofin, I have been looking into dividends with the help of someone in one of my investment groups, and there is some guidance in the last annual report;

"That said, the Directors have decided to examine the possibility of payment of a ‘metal price windfall dividend’ to be paid in HY2 FY2021, to be based on any excess cashflow generated from palladium and rhodium prices achieved above long-term broker consensus prices for these metals for the 2020 calendar year. Such a distribution will take into account the actual production achieved, the actual prices achieved, and the actual ZAR exchange rate achieved. Any windfall will take into account its share of royalties and corporate tax, dividend withholding tax. I stress that any windfall will be calculated on an
“achieved basis” and we aim to pay this in Q3 of 2021."

So reading that criteria and looking at the "actuals" achieved in the period, the windfall dividend may be around £4.5m / 272m shares is 1.65p (special). That seems to fit with the forecast total dividend of 4.5p total (last years dividend was 1.6p).
I see talk of a 5p windfall dividend, while that sounds great, that is £13.6m or (if you include a progressive regular dividend) at 2.85p it comes to £21.3m. I'm not so sure that will happen.

The criteria is outlined in the last annual report, in the latest update, they say, "The Group remains debt free and continues to maintain strong cash reserves to allow for funding of capital expansion and process optimisation projects; the safeguarding of our employees during these times of uncertainty; upgrading our exploration and evaluation assets and returning value to all stakeholders."

I go along with the estimate for the special dividend at 1.6p. The regular dividend isn't due until October.

I am hoping though that the management outline their plans for the remaining cash.

ALB

Your broker will flag it to you as a corporate action, relax and have your funds ready