Sunday analysis1 Aug 2021 11:31
Hi Scored, All,
I will try to post some thoughts on progress during the day today, although I do need to go out shortly and will resume later.
Keeping things in perspective, this statement looks back by up to 14 months, i.e. trading from 30th June 2020 to 30th June 2021. Think of where we were then in terms of covid and lockdowns. We actually passed "freedom day" after this period - and STILL my GP waiting room is in the car-park under a small tent!
Remember also that Alkindi was only approved by the US within this time (30th September 2020), the challenge is to switch patients from the existing treatments to Sprinkle, in a pandemic.
As a rare disease, I estimate there are around 10,000 cases in the US amongst kids, perhaps 1,500 in the UK, 25,000 in China and 22,000 in Europe (plus the rest of the world). I estimate the annual revenue per child (Alkindi) is around £3,500, so revenue would suggest there could be around 700 patients - so we have accessed just 1.2% of the market in the above countries. Providing patient outcomes continue to be positive, awareness of Alkindi should grow very fast amongst GP's and parents.
The statement said children born with CAH are going straight onto Alkindi, I believe this will be around 600 new patients per year generating revenue of £2m per year (compounding), so in 5 years this will be £10m from births alone. Add GP's switching patients and the 2022 forecast revenue of £11.2m doesn't look unrealistic.
Remember - the above is only Alkindi.
Chronocort / Efmody has only been approved for sale for ONE MONTH during the reporting period. Sales are expected from Q3 and CAH in adult is a far larger market and the outcomes on Efmody are much for patients.
Think logically, we had £2.4m in sales from Alkindi (in a PART year), and Alkindi is used to the age of 17, then Efmody should generate sales 4 times faster (assuming average life expectancy in these patients of 68 years).
PLUS managing the condition in adults is more complex and Efmody provides a key advantage over the competition in supressing harmful androgens.
So, if my ASSUMPTIONS are close, then Efmody should generate at least £9.6m in sales during the first year, which means Alkindi should easily push DNL through the £11.2m revenue forecast for 2022.
I will try to post more later.
ALB
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