Member Info for HunSen

I posted a link to a new report but it was removed.

Search for Calvine Partners / DITEST

https://www.calvinepartners.com/diurnal-group-ditest

Hi Scored,
I see very little evidence that someone (do you mean an individual?) is loading up, over the last few days, at the time of writing there are slightly more large sells (~49k) than buys (~47k) and volume is still low, very low - there appears to be little activity and the price has stalled.

I really hate to be negative, however, we all come to boards like this to seek factual information, supported by evidence, on which to make decisions. Anything else is pure speculation (which is fine) or ramping (which on a board with just a few posters is not going to work).

Sells
11-Nov-20 16:03:15 53.75 50,000 Sell* 53.00 55.00 26.88k O
11-Nov-20 16:04:09 53.75 25,000 Sell* 53.00 55.00 13.44k
11-Nov-20 14:55:40 53.15 20,000 Sell* 53.00 54.00 10.63k

Buy
11-Nov-20 14:56:53 53.95 25,716 Buy* 53.00 54.00 13.87k
11-Nov-20 14:24:06 53.95 20,000 Buy* 53.00 54.00 10.79k O
11-Nov-20 14:18:47 53.75 20,000 Buy* 53.00 54.00 10.75k O
11-Nov-20 11:56:22 53.95 23,156 Buy* 53.00 54.00 12.49k

Unknown (mid point between bid & ask)
11-Nov-20 10:15:36 53.50 60,000 Unknown* 53.00 54.00 32.10k O
11-Nov-20 10:15:24 53.50 60,000 Unknown* 53.00 54.00 32.10k O

Hi Bojo, Scored,

thanks for your points, Bojo I particularly agree with points 2 and 3. I believe the market has shifted a little away from Tech and Pharm (Covid in particular) towards value (oversold UK companies).
In terms of risk, I'm sure there will be a recovery on the likes of Lloyds Bank (56% down on year) which has recovered 18% in a few days - dividends will return and the bank is unlikely to go under. The same goes for a large number of undervalued shares.
I think people are just taking easy opportunities elsewhere at the moment and while DNL is a great opportunity, the profits are still some years off.
My mistake is letting DNL become such a large % of my portfolio, the gains I have seen on recovery have been largely offset by the loss on DNL - I'm currently taking time to review my portfolio balance and risk.
Scored, a rerate may well be in the future (I sure hope so) but the question is when? And for me, are there opportunities elsewhere in the meantime.

I hate to be long and negative but it's good to discuss the plus and minus points, the Eton results are in the evening in the US so if there is news, it may be published here tomorrow.

GLA

Morning,
Eton results are due today and this should certainly include some mention of Alkindi, possibly an indication of early sales.

https://ir.etonpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/eton-pharmaceuticals-report-third-quarter-financial-results

Recent share price performance for DNL has been quite disappointing, both the FTSE and AIM markets have rallied this week, a rising tide should lift all good stocks. We are 10% below the offer price on low trading volumes. The share chart doesn't look good - there is no trend and there is no volume.

While I believe this is a great long term investment, I am worried about this pattern, when the market rises, Diurnal is often left standing. Historically, the period between Halloween and May tends to provide better share price returns.
We are in this period now, but in addition, we have light at the end of the covid-19 tunnel and there will be an end to BREXIT (good or bad).

I don't like to ramp or de-ramp shares (we are retail investors - it doesn't work), what I do prefer to do is discuss the facts rather than looking through rose coloured glasses , becoming emotionally attached or blaming market makers.

It would be interesting to hear other opinions on this.
GLA

IC just posted an update for CAML

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2020/11/11/caml-brings-back-dividend/

Trading is due to start for the new shares on 29th October, it is disappointing to see the bid price drop below the open offer price, I still believe this will head back in the right direction after we are clear of the offer process.
Any thoughts?

I think it will stay at this level until we are well clear of the open offer for two reasons; 1 as people would sell shares to take the excess open offer at a discount (too late now) and 2 some will look to take some profits.
I don’t see any evidence of a huge seller, but like most, the bug investors would have been sensible to take part in the offer, and they may also want to take some profits.
There have been no new RNS for big sellers and I just see small sells. If I was a mm I would be trading around 61 or 62 to see what I can get on the cheap - the bid is still 64.
It’s frustrating but I’m not surprised or concerned.

GLA

This is part of an article for IP Group (IPO) who holds Diurnal as part of its portfolio – the magazine recommends buying IPO at 83p (a discount to NAV). IPO own 36% of DNL (pre-open offer), so it could be a cheap way to get additional exposure along with some diversification.
From Shares Magazine;
“Another portfolio holding which has seen a lot of progress over the last few months is quoted hormone deficiency specialist Diurnal (DNL:AIM) whose share price has more than doubled since July. The company has developed and commercialised Alkindi, a drug aimed at children suffering from cortisol deficiency. Cortisol is a steroid hormone that helps the body to respond to stress by increasing the body’s metabolism of glucose and controlling blood pressure. For patient investors, IP Group’s current discount to net asset value provides a very attractive entry point to buy the shares in anticipation of a number of potential cash realisations from the mature part of its portfolio.”

Bojo, I have the same situation, DNL shares in 4 different accounts (including my wife's). Yes, you are entitled in all and from previous experience of an IPO (which was over subscribed), I intend to apply for extra in all 4 accounts - if it is scaled back then I still get 4 smaller chunks.
The IPO I referred to I only applied from one account and it got scaled back.
GLA

Kromek made the Alpha report podcast, which is why I am visiting. What's news?

Hi All,
I was wrong in my summary above - sorry.

Anyone interested should get a "corporate action" notice through their broker next week. The open offer will happen later and there is no charge (via AJ Bell anyway).

Sorry for the confusion.

Well, it seems to be all over already - 13,333,333 new shares. For the same market cap, our shares are now worth 6.1p less.

I just called AJ Bell to find out the process , they need 2 days to do the paperwork (the offer closes at 4:30 today). They can try to do this in a day, but the charge is £100. I can apply for 2,456 shares but the charge will be 4p per share when the current SP is 62p. Even if I can take part, I will lose out on the deal.
Once again, retail investors are excluded? This seems to be about giving a larger slice to institutions.

Am I missing something?

I have been following DNL for a couple of years now, this is not a good way to treat small shareholders.

I have never taken part in a placing - what is the process? How to I take part? I hold with AJ Bell.

The annual report is now posted on the Diurnal website.

Directors talk interviews!
Questions asked, nothing really new, still maintaining this is funded through to profitability presuming Chronocourt is approved early 2021 - worth a listen.
Q1: You have been busy writing on Diurnal, with two reports published over the last month. Has a lot been going on at the company?
Q2: Can you explain exactly what a PDUFA date is?
Q3: How important is this approval?
Q4: Will it make a big difference to forecasts?
Q5: Whoever is right, that still sounds quite small; so how is Diurnal going to make money?
Q6: Is there more to go for with Diurnal?

* insert *************interviews

Another Hardman and Co. interview...
https://www.***************************/diurnal-group-has-plenty-of-potential-upside-analyst-interview/412862903
GLA

Looks like a better day today, perhaps the last week has just been profit taking, hopefully the trend will continue until the next news - certainly seems cheap considering all the positive news flow, hopefully Japan won't be too long.
GLA