Member Info for HunSen

Hi Bradders,

good point, they have tapped the market. My email was pre-covid - I should have mentioned this.

Email from CEO
The interesting points are margin and profitability dates, still some patience required here but seeing the price move recently, I think we may see a steady climb towards these dates.

In answer to your questions (in red):



- do you have cash forecast sales for Alkindi and Chronocort?

The Company does not provide these; however the analysts (Cantor Fitzgerald and Panmure) have sales of Alkindi more than doubling for this financial year (2019/20) and then doubling again the year after (2020/21); Chronocort first sales are expect in the 2021/22 financial year – the market for Chronocort (no. of patients) is approximately 5x as big as for Alkindi with an anticipated similar sales growth trajectory. Hardman research can also be downloaded from our website.

- what sales growth do you expect in the next six to 12 months?

See above

- could you tell me your expected margins on these?

Underlying gross margin is currently around 80% (we are still at relatively low volumes and in the start-up of the marketing phase) we see gross margin growing to >90% in the next 18 months

- do you expect your current cash to last until sales increase? What are your options?

Current cash takes us to Q3,20 – we have guided to closing a deal with a US partner in H1,20 – this could consist of non-dilutive income, including potential for signature fees, milestone payments and development cost funding. Diurnal is also assessing opportunities for both equity and non-equity financing, in order to further extend its cash resources

- when do you forecast Diurnal will break into profit?

If Chronocort is approved in Europe and Alkindi in the US (commercialised by a partner) and no further investment was made in the pipeline, Diurnal could be profitable from 2022/23

if you are permitted to share any other relevant information with me, that would be great
Alkindi approved for review in the US (see enclosed press release) last week, with the earliest approval date set as 29th Sept-20

Hi All,
DNL received a small mention in Shares Magazine (just Israel news), they have supported this company for at least 2 years now and DNL have presented at their events a number of times - I have been holding and building my holding in this company as a result.
As some reassurance to newer investors, this company has delivered on its presentations every time (and they have explained setbacks - e.g. the share price drop some years ago). The CEO has also answered emails (I will try to post).

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/7033445/Diurnal-adrenal-drug-receives-regulatory-approval-in-Israel

Hi All,
I have been holding an increasing my holding of this share for more than a year now, I have read about a recent placing (see link). This appears to add 40% to the number of shares in issue? If I understand this correctly, the share price is holding up well - all things considered.

Does anyone have any more information on this?

Oh, also Martin Walker is on a shares webinar around 14th May I believe

https://www.insidermedia.com/news/wales/diurnal-aims-to-raise-7m-through-share-placing

I saw this business at an investor event in London last Tuesday, I wasn't impressed but I took a look anyway...

What looks good is that revenues over the past (only) 3 years have increased, however, the profits (sorry losses) have gone from 1m (loss), 4m (loss) to 10m (loss) - looks like it would be better to stay at home and burn your money.

They did add 11 new rooms in the last period, perhaps they do cost £500k + each.

I have no opinion, I just came here to see if anyone was chatting on this share - I am surprised! DYOR

Hi Rivaldo,
I was also at the event, but I was in the other conference room. Today I have been working through all the companies in the event guide and this is one from the Flowers room that caught my eye. It was also recommended as a buy in Investors Chronicle in June 2017 at 42p and later as a buy at 25p - I feel your pain.
On paper this looks good, the only worry is "coal", I think someone else in this thread has raised this concern.

I would like to hear more. Are you going to the next event or the April 1 event?
BTW, if you were in the flowers room all day, I believe the following from the Babbage room are worth looking at;
Anexo, Duke Royalty, MANO, CTO(?), XPD(?) - DYOR.
Good luck!

I have been thinking the same, sell before 9:00am and buy between 4 and 4:30.

Hey All,
Quiet here. Any thoughts on the recent price drop? This is my worst performing investment, but I am reluctant to sell.
Thanks.

Hey all,
does anyone have the full article? Many thanks.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/01/back-lloyds-dig-glencore-shares-tipped-big-moves-2020/

Hey FSA15,
Happy New Year to you also. I hope you are right about this share, I made a reasonable investment in this after watching a presentation by one of the directors at a Shares event in London. I did the same for Augmentum and Mercia Asset Management, all after watching their directors and meeting them after the event.
These three are my only losses for the year, so I guess I grateful and I am intending to hold all of these investments.
But, these investments have all lost 10% to 20% for me in six months and in the last month have not reacted to the general election increase in the FTSE100 and 250. This is the only thing that worries me.
I still believe this is a good company making steady progress in getting their drugs to market or a bigger market. Hopefully our patience will be rewarded in 2020.
Good luck.

Hey,
MERC was featured in this weeks IC, strong case for buy with NAV around 45p (from memory), a lengthy discussion is also available for free on the IC podcast.

Hi All,
the CEO of Diurnal is presenting again at Edinburgh on 12th September, so this could help raise awareness and of course the video will be on the shares website to view.

Hey Bg,
No problem then, I figured it was covering shorts or something.

Where do you see DNL going next? I was at the Share presentation in London earlier this month and made a modist investment, now with a 40%+ gain. I could take this gain to more than off set a few loss making investments in my potfolio, or continue to hold.

I'm wondering what could be going on in the background for a 40% increase - with no news or press speculation?

I believe I will continue to hold.

Hey,

Does anyone have any opinion on todays RNS? A company SPREADEX LTD now has 3% or more voting rights, I looked up the company and it's a financial betting company. Does that mean they are buying the stock to hedge derivatives?

A great week though!

Spiderman,
to answer your question, one of the drugs, Alkindi, failed to get a licence or something. This was due to the way the data was presented (according to the CEO last month) and it is expected to get approval in the next 12 months.

Search youtube for diurnal and you can watch the presentation (I was there, the CEO was very genuine through this presentation and after when I spoke to him). I invested as a result and I am very pleased so far.

Hey All,
I attended the Share Magazine meeting yesterday, the CEO came across very well and made a very good case for Alkindi and Chronocort. He seemed confident that the setback in approval for Chronocort (due to the statistical method followed) would be resolved.
He answered my questions after the presentation and was very convincing, I asked about the number of potential patients - in the UK around 45,000 and of course there are markets around the globe.
I also asked for the £6k per year treating a sufferer (who often is too fatigued to get out of bed), what was the outcome - i.e. could they work, could they earn that £6k - yes, they can lead a normal life in 94% of cases if memory serves me right.

I was impressed.

Diurnal are presenting today at an AJ Bell / Share Magazine event in London, I will report back anything interesting...

Hey,

last day to vote at AGM through your platform should be tomorrow, item 24 is the appointment of Bramson.

With AJ Bell, you can send a secure message with your vote(s), other platforms are no doubt similar.

Until he can, but I don't think he will.

More likely he will run it into the ground and take from the administrators.

Quite possibly, why take the risk if you need to ask that question?

Still, perhaps a knight in shining armour will come along?? I'm watching the countdown with interest.