Member Info for HunSen

I brought in on the recent takeover (insurance division) talk reported on Sky - I posted here a couple of weeks ago - but all is silent?

I have just noticed a director deal since that news;

21/12/2018
Purchase
George Lewis
225.60 price
21,998 shares
£49,627.00

Is there any legal implications of making a purchase if they are in talks?

It's good to see several days of blue here, I'm showing a profit (thin on the ground at the moment) so I am 50:50 on taking that now.

Any thoughts?

Hi all,
great to see some positive on VOD, but does anyone have any idea, thoughts, news? All seems very quiet.

Hey 1shares,
I think you could be right, sales may be flat or down, but some of the changes I have seen (such as closing sales floors) and more focus on controlling theft may well improve margins on less sales - i.e. the cost of the sales would be less.
You are also correct, in the absence of a profit warning, profits may be not far off forecast - that could be good news.

Wow! Thanks.

I have no interest in ramping or de-ramping and if you think my voice or yours (in reporting relevant news) will make any difference, than you are sadly mistaken.

I post what I see here, in the hope that someone may find it useful and in the hope that people can make their own INFORMED decisions. My motive is simply to share information.

I'm sorry if my reporting / re-posting of news disappoints you - but it can be a disappointing business.

https://www.youinvest.co.uk/articles/investmentarticles/162953/debenhams-and-ophir-energy

Debenhams
“Investors seem to have little faith that Debenhams had a good Christmas trading period given its share price is down 10% on the first stock market trading day of 2019.
“Pictures on social media of the retailer’s messy shelves and the usual widespread discounts on goods people don’t really want in the first place would suggest that Debenhams continues to be stuck in a rut.
“A trading update expected on 10 January should give the market some answers although expectations remain low for the business to deliver good news.
“Debenhams hasn’t updated on trading since 25 October and we know from many of its competitors that November was a terrible month for retailers and December is also likely to have been a struggle.
“Debenhams is now worth a mere £57m which is astonishing for a business that generated more than £2 billion of sales in its past financial year.
“The UK winner of the £115 million EuroMillions jackpot on New Year’s Day could buy Debenhams and still have half their money left over. However, it seems fair to suggest that wouldn’t be the best way to spend their winnings given the company is drowning in debt and has a business model which is increasingly irrelevant in the modern world of retailing.”

This is starting to remind me of the dead parrot sketch - perhaps debs is just pining?

At least it's not quite the worst stock in the UK this morning;

TOP FALLERS ALL SHARE

ENQ EnQuest plc 19.92 -1.97 -8.97%

DEB Debenhams plc 4.70 -0.46 -8.89%

GYM Gym Group plc 256.50 -17.50 -6.41%

I am worried that no matter what the outcome of BREXIT, this will go on and on for years, with half of the country not happy. Two and a half years of time wasted.

Evening,
this is an interesting article regarding the extent of short selling in UK firms, "more than 11% of Marks and Spencer shares have been shorted while ailing department store Debenhams has bets against 10.3% of its shares."

Other shares in the article are Pets at Home, Morrisons, Asos, Anglo American, Metro Bank...

Another poster here mentioned that Deb is in a down trend, also the wider market in general is in a down trend - the trend as they say is your friend. Of course, trends reverse, but the time for optimism is when both the markets and the stock are in an up trend.

I can identify with BUG, as I am also underwater on several shares this year and while I should go short on these (which are in a down trend), I am reluctant to make my losses real. and then pay more stamp duty getting back in. For now, I am hoping the New Year will bring some cheer.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-6544093/Speculators-looking-profit-stock-market-meltdown-bet-against-UK-firms.html

Hey Pearls,
I also visited Winchester branch, but I wrote about that already.

I can only post what I can contribute, some find this useful (as I intended), others, who are perhaps seeking re-assurance over their trading choice, do not seem so happy with simple observation and facts.

Likewise, I am interested in what others have to post here, but I think there is a rose coloured tint to the chat, considering that this company is in very serious trouble. It needs some balance, if nothing else, perhaps it will prevent someone else jumping into this stock without reading a balanced view.

I think BUGSPUTNIK has some good points, and I respect the views of another retailer. I am an ex-retail manager, from this I moved into supply chain management (in retail) and later into store development (updating and refitting supermarkets) - a lot goes into retailing and some of the smartest business people I have met, started or still work in retail.

The majority of us don't have access to the actual trading figures, even then, top line sales in retail can be hit by so many costs; price cuts, shoplifting, maintenance, etc. So, I would certainly be inclined to listen to retailers, who certainly after 40 years, get a feel for a company, the marketing, the level of discount, staffing levels, operating standards, the condition of the stores.

The things I have noticed;
- shop signage - most of the bulbs gone, leaving only the "ms" of Debenhams
- closed and blacked out entrances - a measure against theft, but it looks awful
- graffiti left on windows (blacked out windows)
- whole floors closed - less stock to sell, lower costs, less theft - but a feeling of a job 1/2 done
- shorter opening hours over Christmas (closed 3 hours earlier than the High Street on last Thursday)
- replenishment cages left around the shop floor
- empty restaurant (it overlooks Southampton park - I pass it daily), the restaurant is supposed to drive foot-fall and allow shoppers to take a break / consider purchases

My gut feel is that they had a very bad year, their only saving grace could be COST CONTROL, less hours, less shoplifting, a saving on lightbulbs. But, I don't believe this, I believe the manager's budgets have been stripped so much that they can no longer manage their business (each store being a business).

I'm not sure of the logic behind a possible MA takeover? Sure he would be interested, but who is he bidding against? He got HOF from the administrators. If nobody else wants Debenhams, he would be better to wait and pick over the carcass.

I'm not long or short on Debenhams - way too risky fo me, but I have been maintaining an interest and I feel sad that we may lose this part of our retail history.

I hope I am wrong of course.

Hey Profit,

I agree with you, but local authorities increased their profits by 8% last year on parking charges and fines. Motorists are easy revenue - what would you / we be willing to pay to make up this revenue? More tax / council tax? It's a stealth tax.

Hi Bistolover,
I am just doing the maths - there isn't much more real than that - you are correct of course, many towns are small, many are big and the average sit in the middle.
I like looking at both sides before making an investment decision, unfortunately most of the evidence available is mathematical.
Professor Joshua Bamfield of the Centre for Retail Research is an expert and I believe that we should listen to his views. That said, I don't think 10,000 stores is that much.

Hi Jed,

If there were 1,000 towns in the UK, each would only need to lose 10 stores - I believe that would be possible.

This site says there are 48,000, and offers a list to download https://www.townslist.co.uk/

That means each town would need to lose less than one store - very probable.

I think 10,000 is a gross under-estimate, 100,000 store closures would be only 2 in every town.

I read earlier today that one analyst is forecasting that Next will take a margin hit of £20m this Christmas, due to poor sales. (Mail Online). I admit, the Daily Mail tend to report doom and gloom where possible!

My worry is the Next is always busy. Where as Debenhams always seems dead.

I think Primark have taken a lot of Debenhams customers, while the quality isn't there, it is very cheap and has everything in one store. Customers buy cheap, wear a few times and bin the clothing. Then buy again. All I see around town are Primark and Next bags.

Debenhams had an extra 10% off their 50% sale this weekend, this appears to be a contingency (the 10% posters were an after thought - cheap), perhaps because they aren't getting the expected footfall.

If they cannot clear their xmas range (gifts for example are still fully stocked), then they cannot pay for their next ranges. Looking from the outside, it doesn't look great.

Hi Trent,
thanks for the info, I think I read about them selling off Greyhound in the US? I have been keeping an eye on them, for a time when I do have funds to invest. There is a few stocks I would like to get in to at the right price; Hotel Chocolate, Fevertree, Games Workshop, to name just a few.

I also have a theory; as technology (internet, trading platforms, this site) and the press report on regular trading patterns (like the "Santa Rally"), these patterns become diluted or perhaps market makers benefit in some way - but if everyone buy's on December 1st, in anticipation of a rally - there are few buyers to push the price up.

So it falls and the same people sell. Creating the opposite of what "normally happens" as reported by the press.

That's not to say there aren't plenty of other things going on in the world.

I believe there is a saying, that if it's known, it is priced into the market already.

Hi Trent,
No worries, funny typo!

I also hold Lloyds, LGEN, ITV (25% loss to date - no funds in ISA to top-up), MARS and VOD. I have been topping up Lloyds over the last few months and is now 33% of our holdings, the rest being in funds.

Stagecoach is an interesting one (I need to diversify out of finance!).

I recently moved an old pension to my SIPP and took many fund and share positions - bad timing of course - not a single holding showing a profit....but you have to think long term.

Let's hope the new year sees a rally and the start of a recovery.

Hi Xerxes,
I don't think 100,000 shares is too much to worry about, with all the other things going on in the UK, NOBODY knows what is going to happen next - although sentiment seems to be something bad!

The stock is ex-dividend and I am happy for the price to be lower as my dividend will be re-invested.

I must admit, I am finding all the volitility at the moment quite scary and I think it will only get worse, until someone in our government makes a decision and gives us a little certainty.

I have just been for my 3rd and 4th visit to Debenhams this year. The first two to use Doodle (a service that allows me to collect my Amazon purchase from Debenhams).
The latest two were to see what is in the sale;

- In Southampton, I noticed that they have closed a floor - it is now trading on 3 floors and it was dead!

- In Winchester, I had a brief look at jeans but they weren't in the sale.

Here is an interesting question....do you know the colour / design of the Debenhams sale carrier bags? I don't.

I don't think I have seen a single person carrying one.

I passed Debenhams today in Southampton (as I do every day), the high street was packed and Debenhams was nearly empty. Right at the front of the store were sale rails of old stock at 70% off. That's not retailing, it seems they are desperate for sales, but 70% off sales are barely profitable at best.
The Southampton store is only 150 yards off pitch, but few seem to be shopping there.

I believe Mike will only make an offer once DEB is in the hands of the receivers.