Member Info for HotblackDesiato

I see the next event in the SAR calendar is coming up shortly: http://www.sareum.com/news/events/

https://jak-drugdevelopment.com/

Is there any truth in the rumour that TM was spotted getting a t-shirt printed with "SAR laughs in the face of your black box warnings!"?

Years ago a psychiatric nurse told me the only sane people are those who have been released from a psychiatric hospital as they're the only people in society with a certificate stating they're sane. Doesn't say much for the rest of us...

Hi WIP - right, that bit of news changes everything! Could it be that the pharma with, uh, 'server issues' know how big 737 could be and they are limiting the possibility of employees benefitting from insider knowledge?

So what are the ethics around an employee buying shares in some bio company that's in the aquisition sights of their employers? Hmmmmmm, makes ya wonder....

Just musing:

If Sierra, or more likely GSK, are getting pro-737 messages pulled from twitter then clearly there must be a commercial benefit to this tactic (assuming the messages haven't just been pulled for being offensive/libelous).

Until the Sierra deal is signed-off, GSK will want a complete blackout on all things 737 as they know its potential value. With our BoD's prior links to GSK I wonder if contact has already been made along the lines of, "once the Sierra deal is complete and we see P1 results for 1801 then we'll make formal offers - until then, keep schtum."

I'd liken this Sierra deal to making an offer on a house that just so happens to have a forgotten Bugatti sitting under a tarp at the back of the garage.

Evening Warthog - are you really expecting full details before the Sierra/GSK deal has been agreed by Sierra's shareholders and the ink is dry?

If GSK gave out their plans & expectations for wonderdrug 737 then Sierra shareholders might want more than $1.9bn.

Sometimes I unfilter a poster just so I can refilter them. Childish, yet strangely pleasing.

I hope your monkey remains pox free :-)

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2321212-could-monkeypox-become-a-pandemic-heres-everything-you-need-to-know/

And now for a public service message - if you find a poster irritating (for whatever reason), just filter them.

Part 2 of 2

"Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: VRTX) is the largest orphan disease specialist, with 2021 sales of $7.6bn from four drugs. It has a dominant position in cystic fibrosis drugs: its drug Trikafta, which is predicted to be the fourth best-selling orphan drug of 2024 with sales of $5.5bn, will raise the proportion of treatable CF patients from 50% to 90%. The pipeline has three drugs in phase III. Vertex’s p/e is 15.4 for 2023, falling to 14.6 for 2024, at the recent price of $235.

Of the smaller rare disease specialists, there are three main ones with substantial sales. BioMarin Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq: BMRN) has a monopoly position in several rare disease niches. The p/e for 2023 is 35 falling to 19.4 for 2024 at the recent price of $74.8. Horizon Therapeutics (Nasdaq: HZNP) has a 2023 p/e of 11.6 falling to 9.5 for 2024. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ALNY) has a well-proven methodology for finding drugs to treat rare genetic diseases. The company will still be making a loss in 2023, but should make its first small profit in 2024.

Looking beyond these, Argenx (Nasdaq: ARGX) is making substantial losses and is unlikely to move into profit before 2025. Regenxbio (Nasdaq: RGNX) is also set to be making losses through to at least 2025.

Investors could choose AstraZeneca as a core holding, possibly supplemented by Takeda and/or Bristol-Myers Squibb and then add Vertex, BioMarin and Horizon with Alnylam, Argenx and Regenxbio as riskier further additions."

Part 1 of 2

The latest issue of MoneyWeek has an article on bio stocks and the costs of orphan diseases (alas no mention of SAR). I can't post the whole thing but here's an extract. (I couldn't possibly advise anyone to take advantage of their subscription offer giving you the first 6 issues free then cancelling it before you need to start paying https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/604876/biotech-stocks-curing-rare-diseases)

"Of the six big pharma firms with the highest proportions of orphan drug sales, only AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN) and Takeda (TSE: 4502) give separate rare disease sections in their pipelines, while Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) has the highest proportion of sales coming from rare disease drugs. BMS is strong in oncology and also cardiovascular and rare diseases following its Celgene acquisition and has 50 compounds in development. However, although Celgene’s Revlimid for multiple myeloma is projected still to be the second best-selling orphan drug of 2024, with sales of $7.1bn, it faces generic competition from this year, while BMS’s Opdivo cancer immunotherapy faces strong competition from Merck’s Keytruda.

AstraZeneca has 12 orphan drugs in phase III clinical trials or filed for approval (most from Alexion), while Takeda has six in phase III or filed for approval (some from its acquisition of Shire). AstraZeneca also has a strong pipeline of cancer drugs, while Takeda has a fairly strong presence in gastroenterology, immunology and oncology. On balance, AstraZeneca is probably the preferable company. It’s on a price/earnings (p/e) ratio of 15.7 based on forecast earnings for 2023, falling to 13.3 for 2024, at the recent price of 10,030p. Takeda, which is Japan’s largest pharma company, saw its margins improve after the acquisition of Shire, since that deal gave it better access to the US market and a lower proportion of revenue from the more mature Japanese market where margins are lower. But it faces a number of patent expiries and its pipeline of new drugs is mainly early stage (the main risk of failures comes in late-stage clinical trials). The p/e is 16.3 for 2023, rising to 18.7 for 2024, at the recent price of ¥3,735."

An interesting find but their planned 'aggressive development' fizzled out over the 5yrs since the interview.

Surely GSK will give 737 top priority this autumn.

Really not long to wait to hear what GSK intend for 737 and then the sp will start its steady march towards our true worth.

The Sierra shareholder vote on accepting the GSK offer will be held on June 29, 2022, at 6pm UK time. You can tune in watch the vote live at www.virtualshareholdermeeting.com/SRRA2022SM

Assuming the vote goes through, they will no doubt tell us when they expect the deal to be formalised.

Looks like we might be in for a pleasant summer....

Hi WIP - No problem!! I really wasn't expecting anything as I know the position you're in.

As for you adding more. Pffff, that statement is just a bit too cryptic for me ;-)

Hi Krone - yeah, no chance of GSK announcing that they aim to make billions from 737 prior to the deal being signed!

Yesterday I was looking for any GSK shareholder chat that might mention what the expectations are re 737 but haven't found a thing. I expect the average GSK shareholder might not be as proactive as some of the contributors here therefore they're totally unaware of what they're getting with 737.

I wonder if WIP has heard any gossip re the deal/737.

Regards.

In a nutshell it lowers the payment but also removes the mention of a patient being dosed in the US.

As previous trials of 737 were in UK & Spain I wondered if Sierra might have specifically looked to continue trials outside US to avoid milestone payments but that theory was (happily) blown out the water with the revised terms.

I also thought the 'USA' clause was still in effect but someone pointed out it was no longer part of the deal though we'll need to wait for the next steps in its trial for any payment.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SAR/update-on-sra737-licensing-agreement-s7o3d08xizlsf83.html

"Under the terms of the original CRT License Agreement, additional milestone payments of up to an aggregate of $319.5 million were payable to CPF upon the achievement of certain developmental, regulatory and commercial milestones, including a milestone payment of $7.5 million upon the dosing of the first patient in the first Phase 1 trial of SRA737 in the United States, and a payment of $12.0 million upon the dosing of the first patient of a randomised Phase 2 trial of SRA737.

Pursuant to the terms of the Amendment, Sierra and CPF have agreed to a decrease in the additional milestone payments of up to an aggregate of $290.0 million that may be payable to CPF upon the achievement of certain developmental, regulatory and commercial milestones, including a milestone payment of $2.0 million upon the dosing of the first patient of the first trial of SRA737 following the Amendment."

Hi SCH - The 'in the USA' clause was removed from the renegotiated license deal.

Is it possible that we'll see a very big late reported trade? Maybe the price gets shown in 'realtime' but the actual volume is delayed?

(Only a guess on the assumption it wasn't a glitch.)

Hi Oracle - my guess would be no official offer until P1 results are in. At that point we'll know what 1801 will target, what GSK intend for 737 and possibly some word on getting 1802 through tox. Maybe even some word on AGILE.

IF all the above happens without hiccup then we really will have a bit of a bidding war.

Peel Hunt have been brought in to access investors who can offer the £20m+ required for P2/3 trials in one hit. I'd suggest that this approach means we won't see a public raise & dilution but instead we'll have 'company XYZ now has a X% stake in future earnings'.

Hi Aber - looks like a thread from yesterday got pulled but anyway, I speculated that once the GSK/Sierra deal is complete there will be an announcement re new timelines for 737. Any news that GSK will be driving it forward will surely see our sp boosted and consistantly staying above £5.