Member Info for HotblackDesiato

Hi Potnak - the data doesn't become unblinded until after the final patient is given the allclear so your suggested 10mth wait is misleading, it's more a matter of weeks. You're measuring from the time of the first patient rather than the period between the final one and the unblinding. The P2a trial should be quicker because there are fewer patients involved and the progression isn't staggered to the same degree as P1a where initially a single patient was dosed and reviewed prior to the next patient being dosed and reviewed etc. etc.

I note you say nothing further re the 1802 translational studies.

To be honest I can't be bothered with this battle of wits so we should just agree to disagree.

Potnak - the BoD intends to start P2a trials this year. They would involve up to 24 people. The 2a trial is effectively the same as the 1b trial in that the length of time the individual is monitored is the same - only the number of volunteers is different. So your opinion, 'If Sareum do fund 2a, we'll be very lucky if we get any meaniful data back before the end of 2025' is pesimistic in the extreme.

With reference to 1802, you state, '...Sareum haven't even started the translational studies'. That's an interesting perspective since the company website and live presentations note otherwise. Perhaps you know best.

Cheerio.

Hi Onerule - Det kan man lugnt säga.

Hi Potnak - When you write, '...people are saying, let's go to p2a. They don't really want that. They just don't want it to end.', are you suggesting some are in a weird sort of hostage situation and like to holiday in Stockholm?

The sound you can hear is your credibility going out the window.

Hi Potnak - have you considered that a large pharma may want to on-license 1801 but they are currently offering terms way below what the BoD believes to be reasonable? It would therefore make some commercial sense to progress 1801 ourselves in order to reach a stage where a greater value is indisputable.

All just speculation and as you correctly point out, 'It makes no difference what I think though'.

This article is worth a read whilst we wait to learn what else has been going on at SAR HQ. It gives some indication of the financial value a successful P2a trial can provide. Since 1801 has the potential to treat diseases beyond psoriasis it may be worth considering some short term funding pain (if required) for longer term gain if 1801 can prove superior efficacy over established drugs.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/eli-lilly-inks-32b-morphic-buyout-snag-oral-rival-takedas-ibd-blockbuster

Hi Aber - Tim's a busy wee bee if you look at https://www.marketscreener.com/insider/TIMOTHY-MITCHELL-A05SDJ/network/

Just as long as getting rid of PH wasn't paving the way for one of their own to eventually parachute into the CEO role.

Hi Aber - I was just about to say the same thing. Once the full safety data from 1801 is available to interested parties, 'official' offers of any deal will have to be made public.

Certainly today's news goes some way to make up for the lack of summer. The future is bright.

Morning all - just tuning in this morning and see some posts from last evening have disappeared, specifically my reply to Lsesar noting a shareholder concern that there was a lack of business accumen on the BoD. I presume after I left things got a bit fractious with the rascal.

Anyway, today's news is interesting and I suspect a knock-on from Tim's jaunt to the recent US event. I still think 737 may be in a pharma's back pocket with a view to get the whole company. Hope I'm right.

Onwards!

Hi All - the only fly I can see in the ointment for the moment is if prospective partners wanted to see data from psoriasis patients before making an offer. Not sure what they might be able to extrapolate from the P1a data to infer if 1801 will be more effective than current treatments. Safety is one thing, efficacy is another. This may be a small sticking point for a potential deal.

As SOG notes, cash burn whilst reviewing data is minimal. When the trial was started the expectation was for it to include a P1b trial with 24 patients. The Nucleus Network would have required assurances that funding was available. Since the P2a trial will cover the same ground, I don't think funding to that stage is a serious issue. P2b is where we will need more cash.

Despite our best attempts at finding out who has 737, all scenarios are possible; an evil pharma wanting it shelved, a small pharma still looking for funding to advance it, a big pharma getting it in their hip pocket with a view to snap up 1801 and the rest of the company etc. etc.

Until we have clarity, some will continue to add to the collective knowledge and others will vent their understandable frustrations. Your homework over the summer holidays is to separate the well intentioned from those out to cause damage.

Regards.

Afternoon Laz - I suppose anything above flipping burgers is just a pipedream for some. For future reference it'd be handy if we had a list of occupations that are acceptable. I suspect we'll have a number of clock polishers on the list (sorry, typo?).

I stand by my observation that people should be wary of anyone using the name of the share in their login title.

Hi GlenF - My understanding is that there is no P1b to worry about. Thanks to the safety profile appearing to be very good, we can jump ahead to P2a with approx 24 patients taking part. Note the half-year report at the end of March makes no reference to 1b but it does mention P2a five times.

Without knowing the cost involved and what cash we have on hand, there is a question mark over the funding. Not a surprise. However, if 1801 really is a world class compound then a partnership is highly likely.

As far as I can see, the Nucleus Network specialise in P1 trials so where might the P2a trial take place? That may well depend on the preference of a partner; the world's a big place.

For those looking to make 10% on daily swings, meh, good luck to them. I'm here for the end game, where the big bucks lie.

Anyway, I wonder what happens to a forum when it reaches Maximum Tolerated Bickering...

Regards.

In case you missed it - https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/fierce-biotechs-quarterly-ipo-and-ma-roundup-q224

"Biopharma deal activity plummeted down to Earth in the second quarter, with just a handful of M&A transactions and IPOs studding the mostly dark skies.

The slow quarter follows an exciting first one in which pharma finally spent some of the trillions in cash hanging around for such transactions."

Trillions. Plural.

A stack of a trillion one-dollar bills would go almost one quarter of the way to the moon and weigh approximately ten tons. Assuming you live fifty more years (and cannot purchase immortality for a trillion dollars and/or your soul), you could spend over $54 million every day of your life and still leave a few grand in the bank for the kids.

If there was one thing missing from the RNS, it was that it should've included a few billion-pound examples of what other drugs achieve. Big pharma will already be aware of the financial potential but such figures may have given the MMs more to work with. Still, early days yet and as others have mentioned, the wider market will soon catch on to the news.

Today's excellent news goes a long way in derisking the share and I think it will attract new investors who were looking to get into the bio/pharma sector but needed the sort of firm foundation the RNS provided.

The trial results will have a knock-on effect too on 1802. Big pharma will know a good thing when they see it.

The sp could be a bit lumpy over the next few days as new investors jump in whilst others take some profit. Overall though, the sp must be set to rise steadily from here.

Regards.

Woohooo!

Onwards!!!!!

Hi Oracle - I don't want to get drawn into things but according to the former work colleague who first got me into SAR, Meg is a legitimate large shareholder and I've no reason to doubt him. It seems Meg's quite handy at dealing with trolls and recently sorted out the main one over on the other site. I still wouldn't go there though - one forum of loonies is quite enough for me!

Hi SOG - if the known 1801 data is already so positive that we can skip P1b and go into P2a trials, this alone must have alerted various pharmas to what we have. It appears to be quite rare for a compound to progress directly from 1a to 2a trials. Is it safe? I think we can agree on that one.

Ideally we'd see a Monday morning RNS to announce the trial is complete and data is now being reviewed and shared. If we knew there were multiple interested pharmas, it would bolster the sp no end. Did someone say 'bidding war'?! It's a nice thought but it's also easy to forget that Sar is just one of many companies vying for the attentions of a global partner.

At least when news comes, if it's as good as we hope it is, would the BoD consider presenting the results on Investor Meets? I hope so. Seeing JR punching the air, declaring "I always knew it was a belter" might make some forget the RF nonsense and begin to focus on the future. If they can also update us on 737/1802 then so much the better.

Regards.

On the face of it the links below (dated today) suggest Sierra are researching 737 to treat Fanconi Anemia. However I'm not sure if the Sierra/737 link they allude to is just some sort of historical hangover or if the report points to Sierra being the mystery US-bio company.

https://www.openpr.com/news/3551502/fanconi-anemia-pipeline-update-2024-fda-approvals

and

https://www.abnewswire.com/pressreleases/fanconi-anemia-pipeline-update-2024-fda-approvals-therapeutic-advancements-by-delveinsight-bellicum-pharma-boehringer-ingelheim-rocket-pharma-foresee-pharma_703750.html