Member Info for HotblackDesiato

Morning all - although it's now ancient history, I vaguely recall the MHRA thing centred around one of the labs we'd used no longer having the correct licence. JR pointed out they were licensed when they carried out the work for us so the MHRA's point was moot. Also either JR or TM said the MHRA were no longer returning their calls so that would suggest many unanswered questions and a complete breakdown of basic functionality at the MHRA.

We appear to be back over 40p now so I should be back in profit within a few hours - hurrah!

So the death spiral has turned out to have been just a slightly scary log flume and it appears that particular log has now been flushed away.

Shorters can get stuffed.

Hi Bailiff - always difficult to judge exactly which way the sp will move on any given day. With the repeated NT responses early this morning I was surprised they held the price back as long as they did before increasing it. Needless to say my final purchase was pretty much at the top; hey ho, what's a couple of pence either way at these prices when the potential upside is so large?

Regards.

Yeah SOG, just bought another £9k at 29.37p

Hi Bailiff - I'm also with the Halifax but I don't use the order system as I'd rather see the price I'm paying before pulling the trigger.

Those two large buys at the start of the day were mine and it took a few attempts to get them. Seems everyone is holding on tight. No idea what's happening with RF's latest shares - forward sold or not?

Thanks for the reply, Potnak. Maybe one of the big players is scooping them up and we'll see a TR1.

I just have the feeling it's all a bit quiet, too quiet.

With RF's final shares being admitted to the market on Monday 13th, has anyone seen anything to suggest they're already forward sold? I don't have access to L2 so not sure if that would show anything relevant regarding this.

If they've not already sold the shares, might we see one final sp drop next week prior to any news?

I expect them to forward sell during the week and there should be enough buyers to mop up those shares. RF will then be fully out of the picture and the sp might begin to climb steadily on anticipation of P1a results.

Once news hits there will be many short termers or traders selling out to make a quick buck plus a few LTHs who took part in the WRAP taking some profit but knowing greater things may lie ahead. Dependant on what the next news actually is, the sp will surge or tread water pending something more substantial from the BoD e.g. excellent trial results would be good, a partnership or on-license would be better news etc.

Hi Lucain - before the inevitable cheaper generic versions appear, do the large pharmas just shrug and sit back saying, "well, we had a good run, didn't we?", or do they look to acquire the latest blockbuster drug in order to protect their profits?

The pharma world is an arms race. Your competitors may now have access to lots of cheap machine guns but you've just invested in stealth bombers.

True, Potnak. But it'd make for a nice photo op and news headline at the conference, "Plucky Brits sign multi-zillion dollar deal". A spokesman for the company said, "now we can afford to replace the squeaky chairs".

Regards.

Actually, for all we know a deal has already been agreed pending certain key results in the data readout with a news blackout 'til then.

It's nice to dream.

Hi Bailiff - if the results are top notch with low tox effects etc. plus the potential to jump ahead to P2a trials, I just hope whichever BoD member is there maximises the opportunity to speak with the big pharmas rather than the smaller biotechs.

just to add, i searched the https://convention.bio.org/ site for sareum and it came back with 2 results - one for sareum ltd and another, maybe more interesting one:

https://convention.bio.org/speakers/martin-gouldstone

"...he was previously a partner at results healthcare, where he co-led the healthcare practice;head of lifesciences in the uk for bdo, the lead for the m&a process in europe for *****iles, and business development and licensing lead at confirmant, pharmacopeia, sareum. he has extensive experience buying and selling multi-billion dollar deals across europe and the us and negotiating multi-year research partnerships."

sounds like he's a handy contact to have in your little black book.

I see the events page on the SAR website has been updated.

https://sareum.com/events/

Question is, will we have news on the outcome of the 1801 trial before the start of June?

And of course with KBC being a Belgian firm they'll know a few HNWs over there who may be also interested in the world of pharma. But I couldn't possibly comment (cough, cough).

PH could help themselves by asking James Steel to hang around for questions after any meetings he's attended. Though I've not been to one, I gather he vanishes as soon as the meeting is over.

True, Potnak, we have no evidence that they had anything to do with bringing in RF or the consolidation however, try as I might, I can't find any shareholder on any forum singing the praises of PH. They do seem to have a bit of a reputation (whether earned or not). I've not come across the same level of disdain for, say, Hybridan.

In the absence of news, sentiment is what moves the sp and you can't deny PH are felt to be public enemy number one. At least now that RF are effectively out of the picture.

It may simply be a case of in the eyes of the shareholder, a broker can't win. They must always be the villain as a BoD would never shoot themselves in the foot. However our BoD are often chastised for not listening to shareholders so if enough have contacted the BoD to say get rid of PH then even if the collective anger is misplaced, what can the BoD do to appease the masses?

With the general anti-PH sentiment here I wonder if the BoD are gently trying to distance themselves from them. Using Hybridan for the raise might be the first step and once the BoD are in a position to announce P1a results, they could tie it in with a change of broker and watch the sp fly.

T&J aren't stupid so I'd hope they are able to put two and two together if all our financial woes really do stem from advice given by PH. Only the BoD will know the whole truth of the matter and I suspect T&J are as keen for the sp to turn around as the rest of us.

Just to add, it looks like a broker has a 2-day exemption from issuing a TR1 if they still hold enough shares to warrant declaring it. So I'd suggest the 9.5m shares have been sold on or at least 6m or so have been otherwise we'd see a TR1 from Hybridan.

See DTR 5.1.4.R2 - https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/1.html

"A market maker relying upon the exemption for shares or financial instruments within DTR 5.3.1R(1) held by it in that capacity must notify the FCA, at the latest within the time limit provided for by DTR 5.8.3 R, that it conducts or intends to conduct market making activities on a particular issuer (and shall equally make such a notification if it ceases such activity)."