Member Info for HotblackDesiato

Interesting point, Potnak. Hope all is well at Potnak Towers.

Hello Faty - You are the only one in charge of your own expectations.

IF the BoD are in talks with one pharma for 1801 and also in talks with another interested in a takeover, the BoD will have to play their cards so close to their chest. NDAs would be in place in both instances so any RNS providing an update on 1801 may have to be very vague on its future development e.g. '...the BoD continue to evaluate development options etc. etc.' At this stage they may have their hands tied regarding what they can tell shareholders.

So unless they have something concrete to announce over the next few days, I think they might wait until the forward look statement in the year-end results due later this month. This buys them a little more time IF they are currently in talks.

Evening Damion - that article gives quite a long list of warnings and precautions with Sotyktu. As our BoD once alluded, first in class isn't necessarily best in class.

Good one, Oracle. Though your mate Sarcrates clearly wasn't a beancounter. Money makes the world go around so stuff what the patient actually needs and maximise profits.

Mind you, the cynic in me says they might have the edge - why sell just one pill a day when you can sell 'em two!

Hi Damion - well spotted. If those results don't get potential partners sniffing around 1801 then I don't know what will.

The Dermatology Congress shindig doesn't end until tomorrow so it's possible T&J could be talking with interested parties over the whole weekend. Once they've gone over the chemistry, patents and trial results with interested pharmas they'll hand over to Parker (maybe Owen too) to talk numbers.

Even if there are no deals just yet, if results had been poor they would have had to announce them to the market before now as it'd have an impact on the sp. Very much a case of no news is good news, if you ask me.

It takes years to become an overnight sensation.

The BoD should have been thinking through every scenario over the last few months e.g. they can't assume that a fair deal will just materialise therefore can we afford to run P2a ourselves and where would it take place? Maybe they've had a couple of unofficial offers but the potential partners are still scrutinising our patents and deciding if they just want 1801 or the whole shebang. The list goes on.

We're all viewing this simply as seeking a return on our investment whereas T&J are probably viewing this as who is asking to marry their daughter.

And just to add Damion, we still don't know where the P2a would take place. The Nucleus Network specialise in P1; they have done P2 in the past but I don't think they run those trials now. Not sure if JR would consider applying to the MHRA again but perhaps if we do get a partner they may have the casting vote on location. At least results from Oz trials are recognised & accepted globally.

Lots to consider especially if a potential partner also wants first refusal on 1802.

Damion, I think we're maybe on a bit of a tightrope at the moment in the sense that, whilst the BoD would probably favour a partnership (proving they can get a deal done and taking a great deal of pressure off), IF they are confident of 1801's abilities then they may decide it's worth the gamble to press on by ourselves. That would maximise shareholder value IF P2a was a roaring success however they'd no doubt come under fire from some quarters for taking that path.

In addition to whatever current funds we have plus whatever tax credits may be owed, it's only 3mths until 737 milestones are due in the form of up to $275,000 and 137,500 shares in the licensee company. That may be enough to see a self-funded P2a trial over the line.

Hi Damion - the aim here is a once daily dose with little to no side effects. Since we never found the maximum tolerated dose we should be able to avoid the 'do not exceed the recommended daily dose' warning you often see on medicines.

As a slight aside, on the subject of financing we should remember that a P2a trial is near identical to a P1b trial which we were already lined up for. Prior to the Aussie trial starting they would have required evidence that funding wouldn't be an issue. That suggests if we need to go it alone for P2a then we may already have a fair chunk of cash still in the piggy bank. As others have mentioned, news can only be a few of weeks away at most.

Hi PCS - I thought 'Goo' was the most coherent and indisputable thing anyone has posted in a while.

;-)

What we really need in order for the sp to fly is a deal with a global pharma such as AZ or Pfizer etc. They'd surely want a very large chunk of 1801 but there'd be no share dilution. The last thing we need at this point is an opaque deal with a little-known, or worse, anonymous, biotech.

IF a big pharma is interested enough in 1801 to make an offer, they'll also be aware of 1802. So IF they picked up 1801/2 what might they offer to buy out our stake in 737? This is where things will get even more complex. I hope Parker is working flatout in our best interests.

Can't be more than a couple of weeks until all is revealed.

I think that lost post was just collateral damage when part of the thread was removed (for info - I didn't request the removal).

Hi Silver - you might find this link re takeovers interesting https://burlingtonslegal.com/insight/when-do-you-need-to-make-a-mandatory-offer-under-the-takeover-code/

Basically someone needs to own 30% of shares before they have to make a mandatory offer. Even if they did, we'd be able to vote against it if it wasn't good enough.

Another day, another Chinese research paper (published yesterday) says 737 works to enhance survival rates in ovarian cancer.

https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/25/18/10018#B7-ijms-25-10018

Enhancing Therapeutic Response and Overcoming Resistance to Checkpoint Inhibitors in Ovarian Cancer through Cell Cycle Regulation - "Prexasertib, an inhibitor of cell cycle checkpoint kinases 1 and 2, demonstrated clinical efficacy and was well tolerated in patients with wild-type BRCA high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma. The Phase I/II trial investigated the novel checkpoint kinase 1 (Chk1) inhibitor SRA737 in combination with gemcitabine, demonstrating tumor responses in patients with ovarian cancer. Consequently, the integration of cell cycle regulation and immune checkpoint inhibitors presents a viable approach to enhance survival rates in ovarian cancer treatment.

As the Chinese have a bit of a reputation for ignoring intellectual property I had a quick look for info surrounding pharmaceutical patents - https://www.wipo.int/patent-judicial-guide/en/full-guide/china

Looks like things have improved over the years with a move to placing the burden of proof on the alledged infringer, '...for a new product-manufacturing process invention patent, prerequisites should be met to place the burden of proof on the alleged infringer to prove that the process for manufacturing the alleged infringing product is different from the patented process, and the right holder should be able to prove that the product manufactured from the patented process is a new product and is identical to the product manufactured by the alleged infringer.'

I was listening to a recent motoring podcast and one of the podcasters was saying that for a few years at the Geneva Motor Show, western journalists could barely get close to the latest Japanese cars as a cloud of Chinese technicians would swarm about the vehicles with all sorts of measuring devices. Not too long afterwards a close proximation with a convoluted name would appear on sale in China.

The interesting thing is 'unmet medical needs' which are healthcare gaps or deficiencies that exist despite current medical knowledge and available treatments. These needs arise when there are significant limitations or shortcomings in existing medical interventions for a particular condition or disease.

Unmet medical needs can also encompass situations where current treatments have significant side effects, limitations in efficacy, or are difficult for patients to access.

Looks like 1801 could be a winner on multiple fronts.