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Mr Windsor has a right to privacy. Arguably more of a right than most public figures, since he never had a bloody choice in the matter. Though one suspects Mr Windsor would be amused.
Largely agree. It is notable that rates of hospitalisation were higher in the US home trial even though it was not targeted at all (I think just 18+?). Health inequality is much worse in the US and unfortunately right now the UK seems set on going down the same road :(
What we don't know yet is how the new 'convergent' immunity-evading variants will affect this.
There is potential for a major setback, possibly even to similar rates as at the start of the pandemic.
I also agree that mAbs have been very useful and hold lots of promise for all sorts of conditions.
However, given that they have all been knocked out fairly quickly by new variants, I would argue that refocusing on innate immunity makes very good sense.
Sadly I suspect flu could also evolve around many treatments with a single mechanism of action.
I believe there are some polyclonal antibodies that might do better against resistance developing.
I also believe that combination therapies should be urgently explored to avoid resistance developing.
To extend my analogy, it is much harder to lob a grenade over two or three separate walls than just one.
Re biomarkers for severe disease, I'm hopeful that work is being done urgently.
In a situation where hospitalisation rates do increase, I guess using age/comorbidity or other obvious factors for increased risk would be reasonable.
I don't know. There has been and still is intense competition for resources. Everything has been much slower than I expected, but clearly still much faster than research normally goes. I imagine it has been very difficult going in very challenging circumstances.
I don't think we have been deliberately suppressed (as far as research goes, who knows re the SP!). I do think big pharma and even big academia have had much greater influence in pushing their own solutions, gaining patients for their trials etc.
I personally consider that failing to trial this drug further would be a crime against humanity, but crimes against humanity happen every day.
GLA.
Further - I had expected to see some difference in the virology results as I had assumed that would be the reason for progression to P3 (before it was cancelled). It could be that there is a positive trend that just didn't reach significance, but I would imagine they'd mention it. Obviously we haven't seen the data yet, but I assume the company must now have it and be analysing further.
I imagine that the virological effects in the lungs are much more important for disease progression than effects in the nose and pharynx, where the virology samples were taken. Obviously it's much more difficult to take samples from the lungs. I wonder if it is possible that the drug was more concentrated in the lungs, and also whether there are differences in the response in different tissues, there have been some papers suggesting subtle differences in ACE-2 receptors in lung tissue, for example.
Not a statistician, but the methodology is 'Fisher's exact test' which is appropriate for small sample sizes.
If we had one more patient hospitalised in the placebo group, or one fewer in the drug group, it would have tipped firmly into statistical significance with a P value of under 0.04. You could argue that the trial was undersized, but when it was designed, hospitalisation rates were much higher - same goes for our P2@home. As it is, P of 0.07 implies there is a 7% chance that the results were a fluke. As has been pointed out, if you pool the Activ2 results with our P2@home then those results would certainly be statistically significant. It is unlikely that regulators could accept pooling the results, but decision makers for further trials will be looking at all the available evidence.
I think we can reasonably say it is highly likely that the drug is highly effective in early stage use, but we haven't proved that to an acceptable standard yet. However, it would almost certainly not be economically justifiable in populations with such low rates of hospitalisation - you would be spending tens if not hundreds of thousands to prevent a single hospitalisation, and most hospitalisations are short and do not progress to ICU etc.
The hospitalisation rate and the rate of progression to severe illness or death may well change with different variants, and it ought to be possible to focus in on populations with a higher chance of hospitalisation.
My view is that there is a strong rationale for further trials for early use as well as for hospitalised patients in high risk populations.
Thanks for posting.
Eek.
Welcome back nolupus. The horizon looks bright, does it not?
I am struggling to sleep because of all the stress.
Remind me which regiment, axe, old boy?
I intensely dislike stolen valour
A highly reputable source told me the volume was quite low.
per ardua, ad astra
My mum had an astra, it got nicked twice, very nickable cars apparently
I like him. His beard has grown on me.
BTW we totally missed talk-like-a-pirate day due to the funeral, so I'll just get a quick 'OO-AArgh ME HEARTIES' in.
Cliche but it was genuinely a lovely service.
Very moving stuff. We are damn good at marching.
OoooooOOOOooooh.
Very confusing when anyone averages down in a share they don't believe in - profoundly irrational.
Why not go play somewhere else?
I believe it was possible to short it as a PI with some brokers while the price was high, not sure if that's still true. But the big boys can short anything and some can and do use people far removed from their own operations.
IMHO it's a mix - there are some with genuine concerns, some angry at the failed trial, some traders wanting lower entries, and some nutters. Mental health problems have gone through the roof, they were bad enough before everything went south. I go nuts myself sometimes so I'm not entirely unsympathetic.
There may also be some folks who would rather this didn't happen. There are billions at stake. Some corporations don't play fair and again it doesn't need to be direct - their owners won't get their hands dirty.
This board can certainly move the SP, there are holders here who can move the SP by themselves, at least intraday.
Whatever anyone says can be twisted and used against them - some folks see it as a game.
Ultimately the science ought to win out, and we have some pretty strong science. How long it will take is a tough one.
Perhaps you ought to sell, MrCosts?
That's a bit weird Ghia, given Mani just stated facts. Which she actually previously predicted quite accurately.
I can agree we need a trial ASAP and I sincerely hope we can get one set up before covid evolves around vaccines, which seems very likely. Though the pattern remains denialism until reality bites.
Dear oh dear, it's not working.
Graft a bit harder, Bizzy Lizzy.
Maggie Maggie Maggie
OUT OUT OUT
That was getting a bit hairy, wasn't it? Let's hope trust in the BoE holds up.
This morning a satirical twitter account claimed that Kwarteng's plan was to ask bankers nicely to stop shorting.
The Telegraph reported this as fact and wiped off another few billion.
Also in the Telegraph, Crispin Odey blamed remainers who hate the government (while laughing maniacally as he made another hundred million from betting that exactly this would happen and funding people to make this happen). Oh and Lord Frost said the IMF was wrong and he was right, even about the bits he u-turned on.
We're at over $500 billion wiped off UK stocks and bonds since Truss took over now.
Kwarteng plans to announce that the UK will no longer provide public services in November.
Well into zombie movie territory.
I blame the poors / immigrants / workshy scroungers / wokies / ecowarriors / remainers / intelligentsia / liberal elite / any minority except the people actually in charge.
What do they teach them in these schools?
You have to laugh.
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1574739363870679043
I'm assuming Trump didn't draw that with a magic marker?
Also many thanks to DeSantis for flying all those migrants to safety.