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I think the average direct covid death involves the loss of about 8 years of life.
Let's assign those years 30% of a full QALY and assume £33K per QALY, with inflation.
That gives a value of about £80K per death averted.
Let's add on the cost of all those hospitalisations.
Then let's add on the cost of all the indirect deaths, from increased risk of heart attacks, strokes, etc.
Then the direct costs of treating long covid.
Then let's add up the costs of this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63204333
Then let's stop counting and throw the models away because the cost is potentially infinite.
I should apologise for alarming anyone. The chances are quite good, maybe 75%, that it is not the end of the civilisation quite yet. But if it was, this is pretty much how it would happen.
Human beings are not very good at the concept of existential risk. It is extremely important to me, to the point of self-sacrifice, that we get the **** on with it. And IDGAF who knows it if they can help. But again, I am mentally ill. So would you be, if you had to deal with everything I do. Again, much love.
Lovely to see you TT. I believe the NHS values a QALY at approximately £30K.
Most respectfully: **** the price, we face total breakdown of all we hold dear. Price is an abstract variable.
(DYOR. I am mentally ill. The DSM defines mental illness as the inability to function in society. "It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society" - Jiddhu Khrisnamurti.)
I am forced to return to congratulate Mr Ben Bernanke on winning the Nobel Economics Prize for the invention of printing more money. My rate is now £5K per day.
In conclusion, happy world mental health day.
I am not actually as gloomy as it may sound. I am looking forward to joining a new medical study that could be really quite useful, hopefully having a chat with the psychiatrist this week. Lorde knows we need it.
Much love to all - forgive my self-indulgence.
The old ones are the... oh.
Permit me to rant a little further. Governor DeSantis, in his infinite wisdom, appointed an antivax Surgeon General. Said Surgeon General propounded some very bad science and was banned from Twitter for spreading misinformation today. There is, of course, considerable hue and cry about censorship and free speech.
See: https://youcanknowthings.com/2022/10/09/a-critical-review-of-floridas-new-vaccine-analysis/
Unfortunately Republicans are now over-represented in the excess death figures by a ratio of over 2:1.
Trump was happy to let it rip when he thought it would be mostly poor black folks dying (certainly also far over-represented) but by a curious and unforeseeable quirk it turns out that the anti-vax movement is quite literally killing itself. If one wanted to put the cat amongst the pigeons, one could suggest that antivax is a socialist conspiracy to kill off god-fearing conservatives.
I also note that Mr Kanye West has returned to Twitter and proclaimed 'Defcon 3 against Jews' before being banned again. Now, slap my cheeks and call me Mandy if you must, but I don't think many smarter folks who happen to be Jewish will appreciate this.
So yeah, free speech. All in all I am not entirely convinced Mr Musk is a fit and proper arbiter here, but one imagines there is bugger-all anyone can do about it.
I don't expect to survive the drone wars, so may as well be at ground zero.
He is a brilliant engineer, but perhaps not a great people person. Those traits are often combined.
He never used to be this bone-headed and I wonder if the far-right have got to him.
He displays the emotional maturity level of a jar of pickled whelks, though perhaps this is the right level to pitch memes for his audience?
His dad is a right piece of work, I believe shacked up and producing children with his own stepdaughter that he raised from childhood. Mad world.
This is not misty-eyed idealism, it is cold, hard, self-serving logic.
The masters who fail to look after their slaves inevitably end up bopped on the head.
It's also a ridiculous waste of latent human potential to limit opportunities to the wealthy.
Most of them are exceedingly thick.
@Doc It's a fair question. I understand the phrasing was 'envisage' treating patients this winter (as part of a trial), corrected to 'highly envisage', with a supporting statement along the lines of 'this is not just hope'. It would be unfair to ascribe certainty or any promises to that and the situation may have changed since. I infer that they were in promising talks, at least at that point.
I am trying to work out some further qs that they could actually answer without sharing material information. Suggestions welcome.
It would be guano-insane not to get a trial, but there is a lot of insanity about.
@paladin I appreciate your good humour. What book on statistics did you get? I am collecting good books in case we have to rebuild society after the stupocalypse.
Having been up all night worrying about it, I have a proposal for Elon Musk. It's not perfect but it ought to satisfy all sides. I propose we let him live 3 days per week as the richest man in the world in what passes for a free democracy, and the other 4 days under a totalitarian regime as a peasant. I understand he is keen on history. May I present him an idea from 2,400 years ago: Organise society in such a way that you would be happy to be born on the lowest rung.
That's very sensible. Thanks wpa5.
It's the best game in town but I do not believe it is the only game in town.
Anyway, time for a break, see yous next week.
Actually, I bet if we had a github for drug development we'd be done by now.
Whatever, I shall ponder a while longer.
git
I don't see much point in emailing Stacey Adam, y'all have that covered.
I might try some other folks.
Has anyone tried writing to Kate Bingham?
DocDa is probably right that the case is not as straightforward as it was.
Perhaps it only looks simple to us because we've been immersed in it.
I'm sure we could put a good summary together between us.
Thanks paladin. I have no wish to offend but I wish to point out that the Telegraph has been ****ing criminally implicit in spreading venal bull**** about this situation. Should you wish, I can supply notes.
Incidentally, I am available at £1k per day
Or £10 per hour for pomes
I rather like the golden rule
It's been around for ages
Religion only borrows it
And keeps it in fine cages
If we don't get a trial I will be writing some very strongly worded poems for our AI progeny to decipher.