Member Info for hold4results

Reduced sensitivity to antibodies sounds bad. In the first wave they said the mutation rate was much lower than flu. This could still be the consequence of large numbers rather than faster mutation. If a variant does significantly evade any of the vax I guess things become quite unpredictable. There's nothing to say that's likely yet though.

You wouldn't want the gentlemen to adjust themselves in public, things are bad but there are standards to uphold.
I'm curious why they tell you about it though? It seems a bit unfair that you get 2 hours notice of an RNS and we don't.

Among your finest work.

Thanks Scinv and Ghia for explaining this.

I agree - but we should push everything we've got. There is realistic hope of a US home trial and I suspect they will do a bit better on the recruitment front.

For the newbies - people on this board have had friends and family join the home trial (and provided proof!).
It's available to people over 65, or over 50 with any condition that makes them vulnerable to covid.

You can really help the company by sharing the details:
https://www.covidtrialathome.com/

£2 billion mcap would be £10 a share. That's more than possible but we're not there yet.

I suppose you do if you're a shorter, whereas investors just need to know how to pick winners.

Rich people are just as capable of making bad decisions as everyone else and doing a lot of research doesn't make anyone completely invulnerable to sentiment. You probably wouldn't want it to either, intuition is good, just needs verifying with reason, logic and evidence.

They can't rely on emergency authorisation, can they? Have to work on the published trial timelines.

True. But it would not be very sensible to put market sensitive info in a job ad, they'd have to be a bit vague.

Should clarify that the vulnerable population is still huge and includes otherwise healthy over 50s.

We're using the 8 point ordinal scale as recommended by the WHO, it's on page 6 here:
https://www.who.int/blueprint/priority-diseases/key-action/COVID-19_Treatment_Trial_Design_Master_Protocol_synopsis_Final_18022020.pdf

Our P2 was in patients at stage 3 and 4. Our P3 is stage 4 only.
Home trials are obviously stage 1 and 2.
The possibility of trials beyond stage 4 has been raised and the change to a different nebuliser would allow for use in ventilated patients.

The company originally believed the drug would be most effective at stage 1 and 2, which is why a home arm was added to P2. It was a surprise how effective it was at stage 3 and 4, which is why we're doing P3 at stage 4.

If it's found to be effective in the early stages I imagine you would want any vulnerable people to be dosed ASAP after diagnosis. But it's likely to be quite an expensive drug, so use at home probably doesn't make sense in the otherwise healthy population, since the huge majority won't need it. Good job too, because we'd run out of supply on day 1.

I should say so, that's a £5 Billion return on a £100 stake

I'm not sure actually, I think she's called out at least 4 picks which immediately did well. Maybe she's in a pump and dump crew, who knows. It's more than possible. The thing is a run like this is not only possible, it's inevitable if you do it enough.
As is a run of losses.

Whether you believe her on the numbers or not she's called out a very successful run of picks and for some that is enough to follow her. It's not remotely rational, it appeals to intuition. But every inveterate gambler has good runs, and nobody in the history of trading has ever managed to sustain her current win rate long term. Again, averaging 20% a year made Buffet the richest man in the world, and Eva must be up 600%+ in 6 months.

Maybe she really is a beginner this year who's been very lucky and the ego has taken over a bit, or maybe it's all calculated manipulation. I guess some people have appreciated her tips, but it's pretty disruptive to the board.

Actually I can't remember ever seeing a profile targeted ad on this site.
The other weird thing is you'd expect a lot more investing/finance ads just on the site context.

Latest ad for me is reusable swim nappies, I'm going to hope they don't.

The overall numbers aren't good at all, yesterday was the worst day so far at 700k cases and 13k deaths, globally.
UK dashboard still estimates the R is under 1 but I suspect that will change in the next few days, yesterday's case number was a big jump at 25k but I guess it included the 10k positive tests in Wales that went missing.
I'm not sure how quickly they're going to get up to 1M vaccines a week but we can probably expect vaccine impact in the UK to come a bit sooner than most places, so we ought to see peak covid before most of the world.
I'm not quite as worried about Christmas as I was, it feels like most folks are taking it seriously, but it's going to have an impact. Whatever happens with vaccines, we can be pretty sure that the northern hemisphere will see rates falling naturally with the weather by around May, so that puts global peak covid somewhere between mid-January and then.
I'll go for mid-Feb in the UK and mid-April for the world. Is that too optimistic?

In terms of impact on demand for SNG, reaching the peak might be less important than how quickly the numbers come down on the other side. If they're 95% lower next winter, that still means enormous global demand for treatments.

It was a frustrating gift horse because my boots were already too full :(