Member Info for Hogsnipe

Novice: Pensana are weak on the institutional funds side (apart obviously from the African/Angolan interest) - they only have M&G internationally. From the register there are so many nominee investment vehicles that it's hard to spot any institutional funds upping their holdings. Similarly you can't really size the retail share of the register (unless of course you are PA and have direct access to the full register).

So there's plenty of scope for behind the scenes action here.

One method to oust retail investors would be to have a significant pump which would encourage LTH's to preserve their gains by re-setting to new higher stop-loss limits, folowed by a rapid dump hitting these limits to trigger a load of AT sells - maybe so the MMs can fill a big institutional buy order?

Mission accomplished and nobody lost (much) money...

Interestingly, today's intraday low just as the NYSE opened has reversed by 6p by London close time. The NYSE open was followed by buy volume of another 279,000 vs only 85,000 sell - ratio of over 4:1. Another casino day....

Sundrum - I joined the TG PRE chat quite a while ago in early 2023 I think. Almost immediately got junk email from weird places, so closed out in a couple of days. Facebook Pensana is dire compared to here.

China - is that the Facebook group or the Telegram group, or something else? I've looked at both the first two and not been impressed.

Maybe you could just let the posters on this board in on your deeper knowledge of what's going on?

I doubt if Pensana would be considering a US relisting to attract yet more retail investors - that's the very opposite of PA's strategy.

It's more that US and Canadian institutional funds would find Pensana as a US listed company (which has to meet obligations to fulfill US regulations and financial requirements) easier to buy and justify to their boards. Also Pensana's 'footprint' in the UK is now looking quite tenuous, with Saltend receding into history, and the US now a bigger contributor to PRE's growth than the UK govt anyway. Let's face it Pensana doesn't even have a HQ building here!

Novice:

I suppose current PRE retail holdings span the spectrum from stubborn LTHs who've been here from the beginning, over 4 years ago, right through to recent punters (neither Smart nor Dumb...).

What you read on this board is dominated by LTHs, so may not be representative of all PRE retail shareholder's hopes and fears.

Some of us see China is behind PRE's SP repression from the very start to discourage RE institutional investment by the West, through regular de-ramping forays on this board.

Others see the frequent tree-shakes PRE goes through as normal behaviour for a volatile and liquid 'penny' share targetted by day traders and short-term players

Others see the MMs working the puppet strings to enable big orders to go through at their best price - not always a comfort to LTHs when the SP suddenly reverses for no apparent reason.

A bit like today, where for no very good reason, the intraday price slumps by nearly 10% and conveniently hits the day low just before the NYSE opens.

Thing is - PRE has never been above £1 for a very long time - and that's round about the level where a lot of LTHs (particularly those who've pound cost averaged down from the heady days of over £2 a share) are now above their 'get-out-of-jail-free' share price and in profit - and wanting to keep that profit.

So that's why I see the last two days trading as worrying. No news, no major shifts in the geo-political RE scene, nothing forthcoming from PA or Pensana and yet the place has turned into a casino.

One bright spot in the fog is that the REMX RE ETF Index has today paused its rocketing take-off with a drop - so we could all be holding nothing more than a tracker stock...

Deborahm - bet you're feeling a lot happier about your £1.20 stake now, eh?

Theorist - just a word, (not 2 please) from you would reassure us all you're still alive and kicking?

AS1971 - in or out - we should be told the end of your story?

Hello Mumbles - you're right - nobody is forced to sell, but that would only be true in normal trading. What has happened today is extraordinary - 4million shares changed hands in over a thousand trades. That's the biggest volume since PRE achieved financing back in mid-March. In fact, you have to go back to the Mar 2023 sell-off and subsequent bounce to beat today's volume by any margin.

Something is definitely in the wind here.

Novice157 - yes there is a long-standing (and extremely patient!) group of LTH's of PRE posting on this board. Because we worked out that PRE had lined up a very convincing business case in a fraught geo-political RE environment which was headed for a crunch.

The crunch has arrived and we were right - Pensana is optimally positioned to come through this smelling of roses.

That doesn't mean all is well for us - for two reasons: firstly Pensana doesn't want us on board, secondly (and particularly if PRE relists in the US), PA and the BOD need to be ready to bulk-sell to meet new institutional investor demand - which is easier done by ousting their retail investors, than issuing new shares. How they will do this if relisting takes place is the question on my mind and should be on yours too.

Re: volume today. Also British_Mike - yes, you're correct - PA did go on public record to say he wanted retail PRE holders "taken out". It's here in the Youtube viedo of a chat session:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nQ0YbamzVU - fast forward to near the end at 19min 20 sec in.

PA openly states he wants to shed the 30% retail holders on the PRE register, saying "they will sell and we have to generate the buying to take them out" I posted on this here back in 30 Mar 2022 15:20.

Which brings me to today's volume. I thought the number of PRE trades last Friday was astonishing given no announcements or major news. So I analysed the trades and found a remarkably high level of batched AT sells and buys throughout the day. This is put in the shade by today's trading - 1,092 trades and 2.2M bought against 1.6M sold. I haven't yet analysed the trading but the predominance of AT trading in batches both on the buy and sell side is happening again.

I find this worrying, given the past history of PRE pump/dump cycles, and what we know about PRE wanting to get shot of us retail holders.

One of the reasons I favour a US listing for PRE, is that their bourses get somewhat tetchy with manipulation of share prices and they are less inclined to let things slide when something untoward is maybe going on.

So my view at the moment is to proceed with caution - all may not be what it seems with the share price - and the explanations come down to three possibilities:

- there is imminent good news in the pipeline regarding PRE, and it is leaking out from whatever source, and that's behind the price acceleration

- it's another pump and dump cycle, possibly to clear out us retailer holders, possibly to allow borrowed shares to be profitably cleared

- it's just the REMX ETF Rare Earths index yet again driving it all along again - it's booming.

Any offers?

Mumbles - well said and spot on.

Pwlx: You're entitled to your viewpoint and I'm as much a "Made In Britain" man as anyone. But the points you make about the LSE's deficiencies are chronic and I too despair about the number of UK high tech start-ups which have walked away from perpetual "incubator" status in the UK, to become stellar performers in the USA in a much shorter time frame. I don't blame the LSE for this - I blame the lack of vision and inward investment and risk-taking by corporate and fund investors to grow British tech opportunities. Further compounded by the sheer amount of over-regulation and interference in the free market by HMG, which achieves very little and is largely destructive. That's why Pensana failed to achieve early financing despite having a brilliant business case and quietly festered on the LSE for more than 2 years just waiting for cash.

It's charitable to say we shouldn't bleed off the LSE to other bourses, but I'm not an investor in charity. I'm in it for the money, and the satisfaction of picking winners.

What you say about Saltend assumes firstly that PA would be willing to fork out big time for a total top-to-bottom refinery redesign and re-permitting, and secondly that the EC would give us a favourable RE trade deal post-Brexit, when it has the same RE/magnet supply chain on-shoring ambitions as Trump - fat hope there I reckon.

My guess is that PA is rubbing his hands watching PRE share volume in US trades shoot up in the last 8 weeks, but he is also well-aware this is not as much as they would if PRE wasn't some obscure OTC-traded stock, but a respectable fully-listed US stock, easily accessible and liquid for ready and willing US investors.

Lastly, I very much doubt your comment that there's no real reason to delist from LSE and relist on the NYX, because PRE can do business just as well in the UK. Past experience, as MAA86 says, teaches us otherwise.

The US in the past has been as slow as everyone else to take real action over the extent and depth of China's chokehold on its critical minerals. Where the UK is still bumbling along, producing hot air and paperwork but very little else, the US is now 100% on the case. Trump has signed many "do this day" directives for RE and critical minerals, and is backing this up with $billions of immediately available investment capital which he is pouring into the whole RE supply chain from mine to magnet, and he is committed to a world-wide strategy to break the China chokehold.

Becoming an American company will simply turbo-charge PRE's growth and value.

Mumbles and British M: - see here for something with a significant bearing on PRE's short-term future as a London-listed company:

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/pensana-hires-us-based-stonegate-capital-partners-as-adviser-ce7c5ed2de8bf72c

I think most of the LTHs on this board worked out quite some time ago that Pensana's UK refinery was a dead parrot. Now, with the entry of AREC & Re-Element in strength as a minerals developer on the African continent, there seems to me very little likelihood either, of PRE building its own refinery in Angola.

Given that the UK governments of all colours in the last 10 years have done sweet FA for industrial development, and the current socialist government has not the faintest idea at all what its doing, we face 4 more years of economic decline and ever rising taxes - why would Pensana NOT now re-list on the NY stock exchange and move the company to New York or somewhere similar, as fast as it can?

The costs of turning PRE into an American company are trivial, given it has invested naff-all in the UK by way of fixed assets, plant, people, headquarters, etc Its penalties for moving are also negligible - it's not as if the UK Govt has backed PRE with capital loans, tax incentives, or a even just a workable business environment generally is it?

On the other hand, the benefits of becoming an American company (either by relisting or through a buy-out or takeover) are pretty attractive. The US home market for RE supply and products is going to be vast under Trump's plans to boost Defence, re-shoring, bringing manufacturing back home, and his tax reduction intentions. The US is now pouring cash into several African RE supply chains as well as Australia, and would dearly love to get into Greenland. South America and Ukraine so it can become the dominant extractor and supplier of REs and magnet metals in the world, leaving China in the dust.

I'm guessing by the recent rapid increase in PRE trading volumes, there could be something in the offing to bring PRE under US management and control in the next few weeks - pushed by PA and PRE and pulled by the US government. Trump needs as many quick fixes has he can now to be able to chalk-up some real on-the-ground advances in RE & magnet supply, especially with the US mid-terms looming, and Pensana is one of the very few outfits as advanced on the way to production and ramping up from there.

This tie-up with Stonegate Capital is a game-changer.

Watch this space.

SP hit a high of 100p for two AT trades at 15:53 - so PRE is no longer a penny share. Let's hope it isn't a Poundland either.

MAA - some recent press news (aug 19 and 11) regarding AREC and Re-Element Tech here:

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AMERICAN-RESOURCES-CORPOR-64309091/

Nothing yet about the recent Pensana overtures though.

Have a look at the SP chart while you're there - similar to PRE yes?

Is that just some random woman photo-bomber in the middle then? We may never know...

The AREC Re-Element tie-up so far is only a MOU for some of Longonjo's offtake. AREC owns Re-Element who have a Pan-African refinery build programme starting with the first in Gauteng Province SA, partnering with Novare for the refining technology starting build in a few months

Novare's refining tech is nothing like Pensana's Saltend refinery technology design.

AREC have an initial $100M investment and plans to build two more African refineries in the mid-term - one near the Lobito Corridor (for copper & cobalt refining) and the next possibly near Logos Nigeria (lithium) followed by a network of refining capacity across the whole of Africa.

Sounds like goodbye Saltend to me - wherever it might have been built..

MAA86 - who said anything about prediction? - I see a strong link between the two but that's as far as it goes. That aside - the latest MVIS index dropped a small amount and so has the PRE SP today. Probably just another coincidence.

Maybe we should be "predicting" tomorrow's MVIS index (which will be for today) from today's PRE SP, so we can then predict tomorow's PRE SP....

Well - it passes the time while we await PRE's imminent market revalulation, following Trump's failure to bag a deal in Alaska followed by retaliatiory imposition of 100% tariffs on India and China for supplying Russia's war machine. Followed by even more swingeing export controls on RE magnets by Chinac closing off US supply chains completely.

Mind you - the MVIS index chart lags by 1 day, so we're looking at Monday's index. See what it has to say about today, tomorow?

Stockgenius - so far so true - because AT sells are still hammering away at the SP even after the US open.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings....

PRE hits its intraday low precisely when the US markets open at 14:30 - who'd have expected that?

Heavy AT selling today - about a third of all sells, including 33 sells in 3 mins at 10:15am - all ATs. Could be prep for some positive US trading today - who knows?

MVIS index is still streaking up, so my expectation is another good day today by end-of-play.

DS22 since the US opened buys have increased by54K, sells only increased by 17K - and the SP goes down???

The MVIS index has upped by 20% in the last month, 31% in last 3 months, and a massive 47% in the last year.

Astonishingly though, it is still -46%, ie: DOWN on the 3 years ago level.

PRE over the same periods has done this:

- last month 74.6 to 80p = +7.3%

- last 3 months 33.1 to 80p = +142%

- last 1 year 15.6 to 80p = +413% (wow)

- last 3 years 62.2 to 80p = +28.6% (not so good)

But- if you go back to PRE's all time high - 205p in Mar 2021, PRE's current performance is still -61% (worse than the index in fact).

For the MVIS index to breach its own Apr 2022 218% peak, it has to go up from current +41.6%, by 176.4 index points, or 424% in percentage terms.

Apply the same logic to PRE and the SP goes from 80p today to about £3.39.

How quickly? A rough trendline on the MVIS index since start of June suggests it is gaining at a rate of 0.54 index points per day.

So to gain those 176.4 index points will take 327 days from Jun1 2025 - ie: about 8 or 9 months.

Seems not unreasonable to expect PRE to recover to £3.39 by April 2026, assuming the index trend is sustained.

However, if the rare eath metals market is upended as is likely by the US underpinning RE extraction by a proper price floor, and China is cut out of the supply chain so it is no longer free or able to manipulate low prices to prevent market entry, all bets will be off and the index could well be roaring away.

So the recovery in PRE SP may well be considerably faster than suggested above.

As ever, this is not advice or recommendation, and you should take all this with a large pinch of salt - and always do your own research.