Member Info for Hogsnipe

... with 137 O deals placed in the 7 seconds between 08:07:42 and 08:07:49 today for negligible numbers of shares. Nobody interested?

Here's today's PRE trading summary:

629 buy trades + 231 sell trades + 30 ? trades. End of day buys to sells ratio is positive at 1.6 to 1

AT trades accounted for 75% of all sell volume and 42% of all buy volume and were net sellers at the end of the day with buys to sells at 0.9 to 1.

O trades accounted for 23% of all sell volume and 58% of all buy volume and were strong net buyers with buys to sells at 3.9 to 1.

13 large buys generated 46% of all volume (9 were O trades, 4 were AT)

13 large sells generated 43% of all volume (10 were AT trades, 3 were O)

And the cruncher - no less than 51% (324) of all 632 O trades today were insignificant deals between 1 and 42 shares, and 92% of these were put through as multiple trades within a single second, throughout the day.

It does look like there is some sort of communication signal at work here. Checking all those 1 second bursts of tiny O trades reveals the top ten deal sizes:

66% of the 324 insignificant deals made today were for the following numbers of shares in descending order of frequency:

Deal Size %Frequency

3 13%

1 12%

2 9%

5 6%

4 6%

6 5%

10 5%

20 3%

33 3%

8 3%

Unfortunately (hooray say some!) I would need access to the nano-second LSE Stock trades database to get at the sequencing in these 1 second bursts, in order to identify patterns in these numbers, so I'm calling it a day at that.

The simple fact is that current trading in PRE is abnormal, and something has got to be in the wind here, when the majority of all PRE ordinary deals go through for trivial volumes. Question is - what?

China - recommend you have a look at this report, it uncovers a lot of issues with the acquisition of LCM by US Rare Earths (USAR). I've been tring to track LCM's ownership from July 2015 to date and the trail gets pretty murky (Grant Smith however, must be more than pleased to exit with his cash):

https://investornews.com/critical-minerals-rare-earths/a-little-known-british-metals-plant-scores-a-hail-mary-with-usa-rare-earth/

How a loss-maker like LCM ends up with a valuation of £168million does indeed show how desperate the US is to break China's RE magnet chokehold.

In fact, the U.S. Department of Defense itself has helped fund the German’s Vacuumschmelze (VAC), building a Pentagon-backed magnet factory in South Carolina and had been encouraging LCM’s expansion to support it. Right hand - left hand anyone?

This at:

https://ts2.tech/en/usar-stock-skyrockets-on-white-house-buzz-and-rare-earth-boom-will-the-rally-last/

Record Surge: USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) shares soared to an all-time high of $28.25 intraday on Oct. 3, 2025, closing up +14.3% at $25.96.

The day before, the company confirmed talks with the White House about a potential partnership

The stock exploded ~57% in one week amid frenzied volume (6× usual levels) on speculation of U.S. government backing .

Market Cap & Momentum: USAR’s price has more than doubled in 2025, giving the company a market capitalization around $2.6 billion

Year-to-date the stock is up over 100% (tripling from January levels), vastly outperforming the S&P 500.

Technical momentum is strong – shares trade ~110% above their 200-day average, and the RSI ~80 signals near-term overbought conditions after the parabolic run.

No Revenue (yet) USAR is pre-revenue stage – USAR has reported no sales to date, as it is still developing its mine and magnet plant.

The firm operates with zero debt and had ~$128 million cash (Aug 2025) after a recent funding round.

However, it continues to incur losses (~$8–10M per quarter operating burn), while ramping up production capacity.

**** Big acquisition: On Sept. 29, USAR announced a $100 million acquisition of UK-based Less Common Metals (LCM) – a rare-earth alloy producer – paid in cash plus 6.74 million USAR shares.****

**** This “transformative” deal secures an ex-China source of specialized metals for USAR’s magnet manufacturing and accelerates its mine-to-magnet strategy. ****

Simultaneously, USAR raised $125 million via a PIPE equity sale at $15/share to fund these expansion plans.

Leadership & Projects - Barbara Humpton (former Siemens USA CEO) took the helm as USAR’s new CEO on Oct. 1.

Under her leadership, the company is advancing a major rare-earth mine in Texas (Round Top, Sierra Blanca) and a neo-magnet plant in Oklahoma – slated to start production by H1 2026.

USAR has also signed multiple offtake MOUs (covering ~300 tons/year of future magnet output for defence, aerospace, EVs, etc.) to build a customer pipeline ahead of production.

Makes the UK look even more like "Sleepy Hollow"!

Over the last 2 or 3 weeks, a huge increase in O trades for tiny numbers of shares has become a prominent feature of PRE trading.

Often the first 150 or 200 trades of the day fall almost entirely into this category, followed by bursts of synchronised small volume O trades throughout the rest of the trading day. The most plausible explanation is that these are "signalling" trades between sophisticated investors and market makers and brokers, where the actual number of shares in one trade, or a linked series of small deals in a short time, represents a meaningful "code" to another interested party.

Given the dearth of Pensana news since financing and sparse RNS releases which might have driven the steady SP increase since July, and why all these tiny trades? I'm curious to know - just what is going on with PRE trading?

Top candidates which may be influencing these odd trading patterns:

⦁ RE supply chains have become a "hot" investment opportunity, and the slow gain in SP may simply be down to greater interest in Pensana - doesn't explain the huge amount of small volume trades

⦁ Pensana's re-alignment of strategy towards US market entry, and non-UK based capital projects (RE metals refining, magnet manufacture, and anything which would take Pensana higher up the supply chain) to increase its market value, is drawing private equity (PE) interest

⦁ PE activity is now on an uptick in the UK where the LSE hosts lots of undervalued low to mid-cap listed companies which are failing to grow as fast as they should, due to excessive risk-avoidance of major UK corporate investors, especially in mining.

⦁ the UK's relatively liberal attitude to takeovers makes it a simpler jurisdiction for global PE firms to operate, coupled with a current $/£ arbitrage opportunity for US PE firms and the rising demand for RE and critical minerals, essential to the global energy transition

⦁ staged acquisitions: PE firms might acquire stakes in PRE in stages, potentially through different entities within a PE alliance, to stay below immediate disclosure thresholds.

So, if there is some behind-the-scenes PE activity going on (that's just one theory, other explanations might be the cause of PRE's trading patterns) what signs would become apparent?

⦁ accumulation at low cost: An alliance of buyers could use small, frequent trades to slowly accumulate a position without drawing attention. This keeps a lid on the SP, avoiding sharp increases so a stake can be built at a lower average cost.

⦁ testing the waters: Before a formal bid, PE firms might conduct small purchases to gauge market depth, liquidity, and the willingness of smaller shareholders to sell at certain price points.

(Continued)

Continued......

⦁ front-running a future bid. By establishing a shareholding ahead of a formal announcement, PEs can already have built a valuable stake if the SP rises on the news, reducing the bid cost of a potential acquisition

⦁ avoiding disclosure thresholds. The Takeover Code requires a public announcement once a buyer, or a group acting in concert, accumulates a 30% holding. A PE alliance can coordinate numerous small, dispersed trades below this threshold to avoid premature disclosure.

⦁ use of multiple entities: a PE alliance might use various entities (e.g., funds, subsidiaries) to acquire shares. Dispersing the buying across different accounts can disguise a single, concerted effort.

⦁ rule of 6 (Takeover Panel) forces PE firms to be highly discreet and strategic in their early-stage engagement with external parties, such as lenders, major shareholders, or other advisers. It prevents the firm from "testing the waters" with alliances of more than 6 parties, which could inadvertently create a false market, but possibly encourages these "signalling" trades to hide position building.

These trading anomalies are closely observed by market analysts and regulators, and the following are regarded as "alerts":

⦁ a large number of small trades

⦁ unexplained SP appreciation: A gradual, consistent upward trend in the share price without any public news.

⦁ an increase in "block trades" - sudden, large transactions between institutional investors, which may signal a someone is already taking a larger position.

⦁ rumours and leaks: confirmation from market 'whisper's or information leaks that a specific company is a potential takeover target.

⦁ fundraising activity: PE firms raising new funds or announcing large capital commitments may indicate their intention to pursue significant acquisitions.

Any views - just speculation on my part - DYOR, IMHO etc....?

Deborahm - it's actually not clear from Pensana's last RNS (re: AGM/Nasdaq listing), what they are going to do to set up the Nasdaq listing.

Pensana quoted " potential listing for Pensana on the Nasdaq Stock Market (“Nasdaq”) in the United States, in addition to the Company’s listing on the London Stock Exchange" - ie: it says nothing about primary/secondary/alternative listing. just "in addition".

An 'additional' listing covers 2 possible courses of action for Pensana:

- it could establish two separate legal entities, functioning economically as one on a contractual basis, with each having their own primary listing - one on LSE and the other on Nasdaq ;

- or, it could go for the PRE shares to be listed both on a primary exchange and a secondary exchange.

New LSE regulations on 'secondary' listing require that if a UK-incorporated London-listed company wants to list its shares in the US as its primary listing with a secondary LSE listing it cannot do so without redomiciling to the US.

So, my take on all that is that Pensana may well keep its primary LSE listing, and go for a secondary full Nasdaq listing.

If it does it has to meet various US laws/rules - one of which is to maintain a regular daily SP of not less than $4 (£2.97). The AGM in December will be considering and voting on a proposed share consolidation scheme where X current PRE shares will be consolidated to 1 new PRE share. They also will want to build in some headroom above the minimum £2.97 (that alone that would require a 1 for 3 consolidation, with the new PRE share worth about £4.15).

However, Pensana would probably also want US investors to regard the Nasdaq listed PRE SP as 'up there with the big boys' in Rare Earth extraction - of which the biggest boy is Mountain Pass at £52.73 a share, and the 'minnows' around £2 or £3 a share. Maybe they'll go for a 1 for 10 consolidation which would see the LSE SP jump to £13.85 and the Nasdaq opening listing at US$18.72.

Which certainly sounds impressive, but doesn't change the value of anyone's PRE holding one jot. If you have 20,000 shares, today they're worth £27,700, after consolidation you'd have 2,000 new shares worth £13.85 each - value - £27,700.

Smoke and mirrors, but it does rocket PRE right out of the "junior miner/penny share" bargain basement to a 'major player' a at a stroke.

The RE REMX ETF has re-traced its recent losses and spiked up to a new 2-year high late last week. Good news for PRE holders.

PRE dealing today is pretty thin but busy - 350 deals so far and the vast majority of these appear to be singalling volumes - just a handful of shares. As is now normal, AT action seems to be directed to selling/supressing the SP for the NYSE open, holding around 127.5p level.

Looking forward to a solid gain shortly with luck.

If there's any readers/posters with programming skills out there, I'm checking out whether the deal-size signalling code is just individual bit codes in an 8-bit binary word,ie:, 1,2,4,8,16,32,64 and 128, (with the capability for any value up to 255 if more than 1 bit is allowed in the code). Any of you have better ideas and/or experience with how these codes are employed? Potentially, they allow public pre-deal information transfer between any and all buyers/sellers anywhere in the world - so we really should be aware of what is going on here.

Fregatr - Copilot offers this explanation (for the benefit of anyone following this topic):

Machine-readable signaling. On the LSE and other electronic exchanges, short runs of trades in increasing quantities like 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, 18, 24 shares can serve as a kind of digital Morse code between trading algorithms. Here's how and why this works:

🧠 Why Algorithms Use Trade Patterns to Signal

1. Machine-Readable Intent

- Algorithms monitor order flow and trade prints in real time.

- A sequence like 1, 2, 4, 8… is non-random, and bots are trained to recognize such patterns as intentional signals.

- These patterns can convey:

- Presence: “I’m here and watching.”

- Interest: “I want to trade, but not aggressively.”

- Liquidity probing: “How much size is hiding behind the best bid/offer?”

2. Avoiding Human Detection

- Human traders might overlook these tiny trades, but bots don’t.

- The use of non-standard lot sizes and mathematical progressions (e.g. geometric or Fibonacci) makes the signal distinctive yet subtle.

3. Triggering Counterparties

- Some algorithms are programmed to respond to specific patterns.

- For example, a bot might:

- Reveal hidden liquidity if it sees a familiar signal.

- Adjust its pricing model if it detects a known counterparty.

- Initiate a negotiation protocol (yes, bots negotiate).

Hmm....

Majority of trades today are less than 20 shares. Relatively few normal/big deals. AT action seems to be targeted at holding SP at 131.5.

Several days recently have seen blocks of deals for 1,2,4,8,12,18,24 etc - going through in succession over a few seconds.

Anyone here know what this might signify?

Nice visual here:

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/all-u-s-critical-minerals-in-2025-ranked-by-supply-disruption-risk/

Illustrates why the US has finally woken up to the fact that China is in the driving seat and poses a real threat to national security through RE supply chain monopolisation. Mind you, the economic distruption arising from all 7 top critical minerals is a mere $88bn or 1/3rd of 1% of its GDP....

And now I'm thinking - is there an AI 'gopher' agent I could bung the first AI overview to and ask - update me when any of these signs show up for Pensana?

I put this question to Google's AI Overview mode search today:

"If a UK company wanted to delist from LSE and relist on NYSE say in 3 months time, what signs would you look for if the company wanted to keep its actions hidden?"

Got a long, but interesting reply - here's the first part:

Attempting to secretly delist from the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and relist on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in three months is legally and practically impossible for a main market-listed company. Such a process requires a special resolution from shareholders, public regulatory filings in both the UK and the US, and significant engagement with market authorities and investors. While outright secrecy is not an option, a company could try to hide its intent. Here are the signs to look for if a UK company were trying to mask preparations for a US relisting.

Anyone interested in the rest can see it all here:

https://imgur.com/a/Lklyoh0

Barring outright mistakes, I have to admit the summary is pretty good - and would have taken me at least a couple of hours to get that far. Don't know if I'm impressed, worried or bored.

No reason why the SP is down 4.6% with today's healthy Buy:Sell ratio at 1.5:1

Unjustified drop in PRE SP today was 11p

0 trades took 2/3rds of day's volume at Buy:Sell ratio 3.2:1 with strong buying both am and pm

AT trades took 1/3rd of day's volume at Buy:Sell ratio 0.7:1, mainly selling am and buying pm

50% of all buy vol in 11 O big deals >10,000 shares, that's from just 2.2% of the total number of deals done today.

42% of all sell vol in 11 AT+O big deals >10,000

Main movements - AT bunched trades in AM seemed to have a 120p bid price target (compared to previous day's close of 129p)

by noon, followed by a bunched 55,000 shares AT sell at 12:07 which got the bid down to 117.5p at 2p spread.

A buying spree followed, until 4 sets of bunched AT sells totalling 60,000+ shares went in from 12:53 to 13:19 taking the SP increase back down to what looks like the day's target bid price of 120p.

Followed by another buying spree up to NYSE open time 14:30

Rest of day in +ve Buy to Sell territory and 3 large buys totalling 140,000 shares.

Summing up - O traders are still accumulating steadily and AT trades are holding the SP and the spread down, probably to get better liquidity. Probably a good open in the morning.

IMHO +5% to -5% movements on the PRE SP are nothing more than casino action until we get some news - come on PA give us a break!

Mumbles/fregatr/Deborahm - I haven't had a clsoe look at the daily trading for a few days, but I'll delve deeper and see how the details have panned out later on.

One thing that stands out like a sore thumb is the HUGE opening spread of 11p - indicating several possibilities - loss of liquidity (sometimes due to a high volume of 'out-of-hours' trading, or disagreement/unncertainty among the brokers/MMs as to where the price is headed, or simply to discourage day -trading activity). Whatever - the spread was amazing. The first hour's trades were for from normal too.

No AT activity at all for the first 77 deals - all O's. All of them for Mickey Mouse volume. When those deals had gone through the SP had dropped by 4p with a spread of 4p based on no significant action or news.

After that the AT sells slammed in and knocked the SP down to 127p (down 9.5p on the open) and the spread to just 1p.

All in just over 1 hour from the open. Another day begins - come on in folks - the casino is now open!!

Novice - re: tax changes and PRE in stocks & shares ISA: It depends who provides your ISA, and what stocks they consider to be permitted holdings. Most providers these days aren't bothered if you want to buy US$-denominated stocks trading on a well-established bourse, eg NYSE/NASDAQ etc. In the UK you also need to consider US witholding tax and the form you will have to complete to minimise the US taxes due - see here for a fuller explanation:

https://www.bestinvest.co.uk/help/us-share-trading/#What-is-a-W-8BEN-and-how

One thing it certainly will affect if you choose to hold $-denominated stocks, is your ISA account trading costs - there will be a big fat foreign exchange charge on every buy/sell and on dividends paid, so you need to consider where the Sterling/dollar exchange rate is going to go over your anticipated holding period. If you think the $ is going to strengthen against the £ - buy $ denominated and hope the FX costs are offset by the gain in the $, or vice-versa - assuming that there is a GBP denominated share type/bourse available (not always the case).

There's plenty of info on line on the topic, so don't rely on my comments here which are just from personal experience with ASML NASDAQ shares I hold.

MAA86 - just thought of another thing that might be shifting the SP - the outfit doing the drilling work for the tailings pond construction at Longonjo are sceduled to resume exploratory drilling at Coola as soon as they finish the tailings work. If that Coola drilling is now underway and the news is good, maybe it's leaking out somewhere (not the tailings pond obviously!)?

Mumbles - thanks for your 3 posts - an excellent summary of where we are today. Re-reading the Pensana update does however confirm some slippage over the Mining Weekly article's timelines back in Mar 2024 in their update on Pensana here:

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/long-lead-item-orders-placed-site-preparation-works-well-under-way-at-longonjo-2024-03-04

stating that Pensana said orders had already been placed with NCP for new/refurbished plant ( ball mill and crushing/grinding plant), and that construction would begin in May 2024, commissioning from March 2025 and final commissioning in April 2026. I appreciate that financing was not in place until Mar 18 2025, but the schedule still seem to have lenghtened.

MAA86 - thanks for the thumbs up on the index. I'm as over-joyed as anyone with the hike today, but the plain facts of the situation are - nowt from Pensana, no other news, no RNS, no announcements and Trump continues dickering and dithering with China RE sanctions with no predictable outcome so nothing on the geo-political stage either. So what is currently driving the SP? Is it irrational exuberance, insider information or manipulative trading - you takes your choice, but I'm still OK with the RE Index😜

Liam1om - can't see those 2 deals today or yesterday over on ADVFN - but I don't have Level 2.

Assuming 2 deals of 187,720 shares were placed at 126p it works out at:

total deals = 375,440 shares against the shares in circulation (299.171million) = 0.126%

total value = 375,440 x 126p (£473,054.40) against PRE current valuation (= 2.99.171million x £1.35) which is £403.9million, that is 0.117% on valuation.

What am I missing here to get your 8% figure?