Member Info for Hogsnipe

Wakey wakey tbow - Sundrum told you about that in his post weeks ago:

RE: Is this a move to privatisation?13 Feb 2026 06:44

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paulatherley_what-better-location-to-sign-a-us160-million-activity-7427962825488400384-KDci?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAAAC5YWQBVZVN8ev2Jmp2FAABNxWpT01ck04

Probably all AI. Lol.

The only updates I could find are the Longonjo project progress images collection - looking good - all positive there. Pretty good front for a "Theoretical" Ponzi scheme?

Novice - "all satisfied" - I very much doubt whether the current disclosure is going to fend off some very pointed shareholder questions at the 9 Mar meeting!

Just 7 working days left for Pensana to reveal who's behind the 'Cascade' shopfront

Assuming they wouldn't leave it till the weekend of 7th -8th March (would mean a panic rush to assemble all the docs needed for the voting), that leaves only this weekend to get out such a significant RNS.

I guess that leaves just 2 days for all the investors who have been holding back on topping up to get their fingers out. FOMO is a great laxative.

Hargreaves allows nominal holders to vote electronically online and they say the meeting has been changed on 19 Feb from an EGM to OTH (other Shareholders Meeting) and my closing date to vote is 4 Mar, so technically, I suppose I should be fully informed who Cascade are by then?

Sundrum - Who are Cascade - excellent post.

Novice - "they could be completely made up" - reminds me of the early days posts on here on PRE from Hamilton Engineering/Theorist and the other down-rampers, where it was often suggested that Pensana was entirely smoke and mirrors and everything Pensana said was just PA fronting a completely fake outfit with no mine, no people, no offices, no tech, no designs, no approvals, no certifications - just like the finance world describes a speculative junior miner - 'a liar shouting at the top of a hole in the ground'.

Surely you can't be serious - why on earth would Pensana float a fake strategic investor at this stage in the game?

Mumbles - thanks for the insights. Here's a link to a very good Telegraph piece today, looking at all the US investment delivery paths (don't go straight to Daily Telegraph site - paid-for sub required), see the same article in this link:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/cornish-mine-could-help-trump-104648597.html

Telegraph Online also has some good reading on how the US is implementing law-based RE metals market pricing and controls as opposed to price fixing/floors here:

https://telegraph.com/the-united-states-is-replacing-market-pricing/

Re-Elements' recent announcement of its in-house non-fungible token (NFT) tech to 100% gurantee a non-China RE supply chain from mine to magnet is part of the US's strategy to eliminate China's ability to weaponise it's RE market pricing control and hobble Western investment in China-independent supply chains by making it uneconomic.

This really is a game-changer - all the US now needs to do when it's handing out the cash is demand that the partner supplier accepts the US investment on condition that their supply is certified with a Re-Elements NFT token.

The beauty of the NFT system is that the US can then enforce a delegated "backwards cascade" from any supplier by requiring that they in turn ONLY deal with sub-suppliers further down the supply-chain with NFT-certification, all the way back to digging minerals out of the ground. Without access to the NFT tokens system - that's it, you're not going to be able to enter that closed-shop market. No elaborate floor-pricing required and proper competitive market pricing within the NFT barrier. Win, win and win again.

China need not apply.

Two days of sustained SP interest - volumes moving up - I'm guessing the flow of US cash into anything to do with critical minerals is being seen as de-risking RE investment and attracting some of the AI/Tech deserters maybe? Hope so.

PGE_Geo - good post - I agree with you - it's all to preserve anonymity of the real strategic investor - but that won't do, come the 9 Mar Pensana General Meeting, when there will be ructions if the real strategic still isn't known.

Running an AI check on the https://cascadenaturalresources.com/ URL itself comes up with a few interesting points - always bearing in mind the possibility of AI fantasies! Here's a summary:

Cascade Natural Resources Limited is almost certainly: a newly formed vehicle, privately held, structured offshore (BVI/Mauritius/UAE most likely ) and created specifically for a single deal or negotiation, with no prior operational history, with no connection to U.S. government rare‑earth programs

and with no link to Cascade Investment (Bill Gates).

The website: https://cascadenaturalresources.com/ is characteristic of a newly formed special‑purpose vehicle (SPV) rather than an established natural‑resources investor and the website was created to provide a public‑facing identity for a vehicle that did not previously exist.

The domain cascadenaturalresources.com shows the classic fingerprints of a newly created SPV: recently registered (the domain age is extremely young), privacy‑shielded WHOIS (registrant hidden behind a proxy), no historical DNS records, single‑purpose hosting with no other sites on the same server, no backlinks from industry, media, or institutional sites

This combination is typical of a company created to front a specific transaction rather than a long‑standing operating business.

Likely jurisdictional origin: domain privacy shielding is typical of BVI, Mauritius, and UAE‑based entities whose owners prefer opacity, generic, compliance‑free website structure is characteristic of companies incorporated in jurisdictions where public disclosure is minimal, absence of any corporate identifiers (company number, registered office, directors) is unusual for UK, EU, or Australian companies, but normal for BVI, Cayman, Mauritius, and UAE free zones.

🇲🇺 Mauritius is a good match for Jurisdiction: popular for Africa‑facing mining and energy investments, often used for Angola‑related structures, entities frequently present with generic websites and no public filings, favoured for tax treaties and investment‑protection agreements.

Mauritius jurisdiction fits the metadata and the presentation style, far better than the UK, US, Canada, Australia, or EU.

This is consistent with Pensana’s pattern of naming opaque or newly created entities as “strategic investors”.

It's probably nothing, but the decent uptick in the SP today may well be a foretaste of things to come.

MAA86 - just had a good sniff around Cascade Resource with the aid of Co-pilot AI. It can only find 2 active companies - 🇨🇦 Cascade Resources Ltd (TSX‑V: CC a Canadian uranium mining exploration company (now inactive), and the other is Cascade Resources Ltd listed at Companies House - A UK‑registered private limited company, incorporated in 2007, classified under management consultancy activities, which it reckons is a dormant or minimal activity consultancy vehicle, with nothing to suggest it is capable of deploying $160m.

Oddly, Co-pilot makes the statement: 'Given Pensana’s history of announcing funding partners that later prove opaque or non‑existent, it’s worth verifying the underlying entity'. Putting that one aside..... , it suggests that Cascade Resources Ltd could be a newly repurposed or renamed vehicle (common in private capital deals), or a special‑purpose investment entity using an existing shell.

I went on to ask for a deep trace for the words 'Cascade' or 'Cascade Resources' in any of the US Govt departments providing capital investment for RE supply chains - drew a blank.

No idea what's going on. Most likely suggestion is that it's a new special-purpose vehicle which is not yet visible in public listings. Very mysterious.

Sundrum - enter Pensana in the Investor News home page search. No results. Tells a story.

LOL - join the dots....

Read here:

https://investornews.com/market-opinion/follow-the-money-u-s-government-funding-for-critical-minerals-companies-2023-2026/

Lots of RE cash flows, Pensana not referenced directly though.

SP - US govt policy hasn't changed at all on Rare Earth magnet economics.

Simply put, they don't want Chinese supply-chain fingerprints anywhere in their RE magnet-dependent manufacturing - whether that's in defence, energy, consumer - whatever.

They can't enforce this unless a way is found to 'watermark' every stage in the magnet supply chain. It's pointless sourcing your RE magnets say from a German magnet supplier, if their RE ores came from China directly, or via as many refining intermediaries as needed to hide the evidence. Hitherto - impossible. No longer apparently.

Re-Element now has end-to-end traceability (unhackable - based on block chain) giving military-grade verifiability of origin, which fully complies with U.S. Department of War's Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement requirements.

So Re-Element now has a simple token system which gives it a unique edge to streamline compliance workflows, enhance supply-chain transparency, and support secure trade finance for U.S. manufacturers and defense contractors.

Which will also cover Pensana's entire Longonjo ReElement offtake under the June 2025 MoU.....

So now, there is no need for floor pricing to keep China from undermining Western investment - just mandating a simple electronic token from your supplier will do the trick. Good news or what?

Naahh... the Don will just slap a 20% beautiful tariff on the GBP, that'll fix it......

Nigel50 - as I understand it, Trading T212 operates as a 'systematic internaliser' ie: it can order match internally using its own trading desk without going to the primary marketplace. This enables tiny fractional orders to be processed internally, efficiently and avoid commission fees. However, it is not possible to place fractional orders on the LSE, so it also acts as an aggregator when it trades on the main bourse by combining multiple internal fractional orders into a single transaction for a given stock, hence spreading the dealing cost. Essentially, it holds a limited inventory of certain equities and re-stocks via intermittent market deals.

I can see how that might account for a few small volume aggregate orders of a single stock in one day, but why would they (together with the limited numbers of other no-fee dealers) want to incur the dealing costs for many hundreds of such deals in the case of Pensana?

And why would they do this at set times of the day, each and every day?

PRE Trading summary 26 Jan

SP up 7.5% on the day with largest total volume traded (1.84m) since Nov 27th 2025 - 2.4 X previous day's volume.

850 deals today - 508 buys, 327 sells and 15 unknown ? trades (those totalled 400,533 shares)

AT deals were positive Buy/Sell ratio 1.4: 1, where O deals were negative at 0.67:1

Of the 850 deals, 489 were for microtrades (less than 240 shares) - the vast majority of which were O deals (397) with only 92 AT microtrades.

These 489 microtrades today accounted for 58% of all trades today, but a tiny 1.26% of the day's volume.

As normal(?) - some 106 microtrades were placed at the start of the trading day from 08:03am to 08:06am, and the usual NYSE open burst of 42 microtrades between 14:30:53 and 14:34:25PM.

Large trades today (greater than 7500 shares) accounted for only 51 deals or 6% of all deals, but a huge 69.2% of the day's volume, including 5 trades of type ? (unknown buy or sell) totalling 390,000 shares (all O trades)

Certain nominee brokers report their deal prices to 2 or 3 decimal places (eg: 108.416), where the majority only report to 1 decimal place (eg: 109.4).

All of the 2 and 3 digit priced trades were O trades, and not many were microtrades. These trades are almost all stand-alone (not batched in groups) and look like "real" trades.

This allows another level of information to be analysed by looking only at these 2 or 3 decimal place brokers deals only.

Surpisingly, today there was atotal of 48 3-digit brokers' deals which accounted for 31.6% of all voume, and had substantially larger average deal size (over 12,000 shares) per deal, but SOLD 2.5 times the amount they bought. They also listed two trades of type ?, totalling 250,000 shares.

There were another 54 2-digit brokers' deals accounting for 14.5% of all volume, but they BOUGHT 3 times the volume they sold.

So, in total, these specific brokers accounted for 46.2% of all of today's volume, and their deal size was on average 3.8 times the average deal today.

If we assume a single nominee broker is behind all the 3 digit trades, and another single broker is behind all the 2-digit trades, then the former shed some 141,000 shares and the latter acquired 75,000 shares. However, two of the 3-digit broker's deals today went through as 'Unknowns' ie: not known if a buy or sell, totalling 250,000 shares.

Should be another interesting day tomorrow if the volume trend keeps going.

NASDAQ has also gone all-in AI to monitor 17.5million trades a day for suspicious trading:

https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/11/07/65063/nasdaq-ai-will-now-watch-for-fraudsters-on-the-worlds-largest-stock-exchange/

Tbow/Fregatr - it seems the LSE has already jumped on the AI bandwagon for Market Surveillance.

"As of 2025 the London Stock Exchange has begun integrating AI through its AI-powered Surveillance Guide, which uses Amazon Bedrock and Anthropic’s Claude models to automate news sensitivity analysis and support analysts in triaging potential market abuse, such as spoofing, across MiFID asset classes.

AI-integrated programs make detecting fraud much more efficient within the London Stock Exchange. They present a much lower percentage of false positives, as well as an almost instantaneous detection of suspicious activity. This aligns with our results, which showed true positive rates of 92.7-96% for AI versus 78.3% for traditional systems, and false positives reduced from 51.4% to 11.9%."

Apparently, LSE AI Surveillance can run a complete market abuse analysis of a selected stock's trading patterns in a few seconds, compared to days using their previous investigation tools.

Hhhm.....

Tbow/Fregatr There are lots of reasons why very small deals can feature quite innocently in a share's daily trading pattern.

However, when you start to add up ALL of the oddities in PRE trading, it begins to strain probability and belief that nothing is going on.

The fact that microtrades are predominantly O-type. But the fact that they happen in runs which are auto-traded by the dozens in a second or two - means they have a corporate/agency origin.

The fact that they always take place at specific times eg: ahead of LSE trading and NYSE trading, less so at other times and at the end of trading.

The fact that a year ago - there were zero microtrades in daily PRE dealing.

The fact that microtrades can now make up over 50% of all the deals in a single day, literally hundreds go through each and every day now.

The fact that they are both buys and sells - but often appear in runs of each, rather than randomly one or the other.

The fact that there are often ordered sequences of microtrade sizes eg: 2 shares then 4 then 8 then 12 etc all the way up to 50

The fact that much of daily volume is down to a small number of large deals (AT and O) while hundreds of microtrades go through and generate less then 1% of day volume total

The fact that AT bot trades are often executed in blocks of buys and sells before and after a burst of microtrades.

The fact that PENSANA is highly unlikely to be in a substantial number of tracker funds( which often need to batch up their microtrades for portfolio balancing reasons).

The fact that certain O deals which have 2 or 3 digits of precision on their ticker price, also account for a substantial part of the large volume trades (suggesting specific brokers are involved). Not one of these 2/3 digit deals has ever been a microtrade.

There's more, but I have failed to work out what, if anything is going on.

Apparently private investors can raise concerns about a share's LSE trading by emailing the LSE's Market Supervision team (which monitors trading) at marketsupervisionenquiries@lseg.com.

Me? I like a quiet life - maybe this is one for you SmartPunter?

Thanks for that.

Novice - yes I do rely on trading patterns. Two sites are really useful:

MarketScreener - here:

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/PENSANA-PLC-109347695/

and ADVFN here:

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/pensana-PRE/trades

Both are free to register and use - nominally for 15 min delayed trades - but see further down.

Market Screener is good - alllows you to watch the deals go through on the candlestick chart - set it for 5 minute interval - and it continuously updates the price ticker for the last trade - green/buy, red/sell - it also seems to be more up to date than ADVFN by the minute and if you set MA lines they too will adjust in real time to show the trend direction of the 5min SP.

ADVFN lets you browse every LSE PRE trade today up to 15 mins ago, and I use it to see how AT trades and O microtrades are going.

My judgement today was based on ADVFN showing the (now) usual flurry of synchronised O microtrades (signalling trades?) around the 14:30 NYSE open - which I assume to be the MMs preparing for the rest of the day's action on bid-offer and spread. I noticed that there was a preponderance of AT/Bot block trades (groups of buys then sells then buys) from 12:00 up to 14:30 with not much at all going on by way of O trades, which I interpret as MMs setting the target price and tightening the spread for best liquidity.

Back over on Market Screener, I see on the 5-min chart there's a 14:30 pickup in the SP and buying, so assume that's influenced by US dealing, as there's no particular reason why LSE buyers would delay their buys till PM in the face of a rising PRE SP from the start of LSE trading at 08:30.

And that's about it - combination of timing, short-term trading patterns and my suspicious mind about price manipulation.....

Just passed 100p. Looks like a bit of enthusiasm across the water. And all it took was for the MM's to pitch it right for the NYSE open.