Member Info for Hogsnipe

It ain't the news - it's the index....

https://www.marketvector.com/indexes/hard-asset/mvis-global-rare-earth-strategic-metals

Stockgenius - here's the top composition of the index:

MP MATERIALS CORP US 12.68%

CHINA NORTHERN RARE EARTH GROUP HIGH TECH CO LTD CLASS A CN 9.28%

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LTD AU 7.52%

ALBEMARLE CORP US 6.56%

SHENGHE RESOURCES HOLDINGS-A CN 5.66%

QUIMICA Y MINERA CHIL-SP ADR CL 5.63%

ILUKA RESOURCES LTD AU 5.23%

PILBARA MINERALS LTD AU 5.19%

IPERIONX LTD AU 4.59%

JINDUICHENG MOLYBDENUM CO LTD CLASS A CN 4.56%

Pensana notably absent. So if interest in the shares drives the index, what difference can interest in PRE shares make to the index? If you track the trades for Pensana over the last 4 weeks, you'll see an interesting phenomenon - time and time again when PRE buys start to outstrip sells by a significant margin, you will see large sell trades (frequently 10,100, 20,200 up to 60, 000 in a single trade) to bring the buy/sell ratio back to 50/50 again.

the obvious conclusion is that PRE SP is being manipulated to stay in a specific price range. Who decides the price? - the market makers. Where are the MMs at the moment? - on their luxury yachts in the med or Saudi probably. So who decides the SP range now - the bunch of second-rate, inexperienced brokers left in charge while the boss is away. They are clueless about the long history of PRE and the current political and economic issues surrounding RE supply chains and care even less. They just want an easy life working 9 to 5 at the very best, so just why not forget the complexities of what the real SP should be and just tag the PRE price to the index - job done. Just sayin'.

"It's the index stupid" - to riff on a Clinton-era theme. It ain't the news, or PA what's shifting the SP - as I've said often before - it's this index:

https://www.marketvector.com/indexes/hard-asset/mvis-global-rare-earth-strategic-metals

Watch and learn.

Achilles: re SP retrenchment - just check this - MVIS® Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index (MVREMX) at https://www.marketvector.com/indexes/hard-asset/mvis-global-rare-earth-strategic-metals - and you'll see what's driving the PRE SP. PRE peaked on July 25, retrenched till a couple of days ago and now it's on an uptick - exactly the same as this index.

Seems to me the MMs who know how to price properly have gone away on their summer jollies and the kids left in charge have opted for tracker-pricing as the easy option.

Yet another way the LSE lets British companies down, and why Pensana should consider relisting on a US exchange, along with lots of other reasons:

Market Valuation Concerns on LSE

Labour Government and Economic Uncertainty

More Supportive Investor Sentiments

Access to a Larger and More Diverse Investor Base

Higher Valuations in Tech

Stronger Analyst Coverage & Better Market Visibility

Greater Capital Access & Raising Opportunities

Market Prestige and Global Reach

Rare Earth Sector-Specific Advantages

Strategic Considerations and Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A)

US Government Dept of Defence Direct Investment in Rare Earths Businesses

JP Morgan and Godman Sachs Offering Multi-Billion Funding Lines for RE Magnet Companies

US Govt Now Committed to RE Price Floor support

US Govt Committed to Build Out RE Supply Chains from Mine to End Use Products

Then we might at last see a realistic valuation.

Mumbles - excellent post & I agree PRE's valuation is currently supressed. However, as I've posted previously - PRE seems to be priced by the MMs in lockstep with the world index of RE metals (MVREMX) see here: https://www.marketvector.com/indexes/hard-asset/mvis-global-rare-earth-strategic-metals

Have a look at the 6month index chart here:

https://imgur.com/a/b0mMtYF

and you'll see the recent index growth and retrenchment aligns perfectly with PRE SP from April 13th to date. Question is, as before - why?

Interesting piece here:

https://www.investing.com/analysis/rare-earths-quietly-reemerge-as-strategic-flashpoint-in-uschina-standoff-200664406

which may have the answer - Trump again.

With his deadline for a Russian peace deal with Ukraine brought foward from 50 days notice to 10 or 12 days, (which everyone agrees ain't going to happen) - that automatically puts China (as a Russian arms/war materials first line supplier) back into impending sanctions of 100% on all trade into US in 10 days. It could well be the case that we are looking at an explosion in NdPr pricing if all of this comes to pass, which has the short term effect that stockpiling is no doubt happening around the world, at the same time as China wants to avoid selling at current prices by manipulating the market and restricting flows - hence the drop in the index?

Deborahm - welcome to the board. If you're in at 120p, I doubt you're going to have much to complain about come end September.

Pensana is leading the whole RE mining sector and has topped the 1 year return charts for the last 3 months. See the sector chart here:

https://imgur.com/a/9P76ZK0

Also, barring adverse events/bad news, a simple linear price trend starting 13 Mar 2025 points to a break through the £1.20 level in a couple of months. OK it's taken at least 4 years for your investment in PRE to start looking up - but there were lots of opportunities to average down your £1.20p bought price , as did many LTHs here. I'm holding on for much better days even though I could write off the last 5 years and walk away with a small loss. My gut still tells me PRE has legs....

PRE just passed my averaged down holding price of 82p today - no longer underwater but back in black. All things come to those who..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... wait...

Mumbles - you're right to set the context in terms of a producer valuation - it's where Pensana is headed at the moment on the Lassonde Curve - climbing up to the second peak in SP as it goes into finance/production. If anyone's interested, the Lassonde curve has been verified as a realistic represtation of the valuation development of a junior mining company from discovery to depletion, have a look here: https://smallcapinvestor.ca/the-lassonde-curve-understanding-the-mining-life-cycle/

The second SP peak is always in excess of the first (which was from 20p in Jul 2020 to 205p in Mar 2021) so we can reasonably expect it to surpass £2.05 in the coming months. However, the re-rating to producer valuations (Peak 2) is frequently stated as a 5 to 10 times uplift.

So it's likely that there's a lot of meat in the next 2 years in the value of Pensana from today, following the recent upturn. There's also an appreciable chance that this won't escape the attention of senior mining companies and Pensna could be snapped up in bid well before reaching the 2nd peak.

Most representations of Lassonde put the duration of the second uptick to steady production peroid as abot 2 or 3 years. Good time to hold I think.

Trump has now signed a deal with China to ease US chip export restrictions to China if China starts to push through more RE magnet licenses to break the threat to EV production in the West. Not quite another great Trump "art of the deal" because China is not relaxing its embargoes on the refined magnet metals needed to produce the magnets, only the finished magnets. So the choke hold remains.

At last, the West is seeing what we've all been arguing for here for years - unless it builds non-China 'mine to magnet' supply chains, China can throttle most of the West's high-tech industry at a whim.

How do we know the West is taking this need seriously now? - Price premiums. Western buyers are now desperately seeking independent sources of RE magnets first, then magnet production factories second, then high purity RE magnet metals raw materials, third. So desperate are they now, they see that paying a premium over manipulated fixed low prices from China is vastly more economic than shutting down your production lines for a few months waiting on China's say-so to run them.

So already we're seeing buyers willing to pay over 20% premiums on Shanghai magnet prices, for non-China-made magnets, and hunting down suppliers in Estonia, France and Germany and Japan - anywhere but China. We're also seeing the beginnings of crash investments in magnet production in Korea, Vietnam, Canada, France, Germany and even the UK - step forward Less Common Metals your day has arrived.

We're also seeing futures in magnet metals and raw materials sky-rocketing with forward pricing way above the fake China rigged market prices.

See the details here:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rare-earth-magnet-users-jolted-103239292.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFdN_BwRD9d512IGldFpvR3ihfQ1H-zyxqOqSaofktLoAEINUypRgH6DYdj0pir9pxBmuyov__lm33dxoLCx1bqepKzesqKCXmVxIQPQ5CPZjW_ZA2EkdnGv3vwb5RaMGrL5-XDxXGjYPKfOg8johPOf3Kor5Jr3U7B9e5DeeRC7

It's been a long time coming but Pensana was always ahead of the game lining up its business strategy and plans in the face of indifferent corporate investors, so will do well now.

They're not so indifferent now are they? Amazing the way a swift kick in the g**lies can change the tide of opinion....

India is now embargoing RE magnet metal minerals exports worlwide - including blocking Japanese supply accounting for a third of India's annual production, reserving this for future domestic use.

https://investornews.com/critical-minerals-rare-earths/technology-metals-report-06-16-2025-indias-rare-earth-clampdown-and-a-trump-china-trade-twist-ignite-a-global-critical-minerals-scramble/

Suppliers warn that assembly lines at General Motors Company (NYSE: GM), Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) (TYO: 7203) and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (ETR: BMW) could stop as early as July if Chinese export licenses do not accelerate.

Meanwhile China has tightened its control of RE mining supply lines in Myanmar by providing backing for a militia securing new rare earth mines in South Myanmar operated and secured by Chinese workers not Malaysian natives.

Https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/rare-earth-crisis-deepens-chinas-shipments-sink-to-five-year-low-down-74-yoy-in-may/articleshow/121969503.cms

The embargo on RE magnets shipping is now beyond serious, with China exports dropping by 74% in May to a 5-year low. Euro and USA factories are running out of stockpiles and some are already in shut-down. Events in the middle east and Ukraine are sucking up all the international concern and resources.

Meanwhile domestic economic disaster in the West is unfolding - first in the EV market, next will be green energy, followed by a raft of defence and high-tech industry shut-downs

China has a huge production stock overrun of EV's which are not selling in China even at prices a third of Western markups. China needs the money from high-priced EV exports to Europe, UK, USA, India to prop up its own domestic failures, so it will have a field day when the West's EV production lines shut down entirely.

Only Japan now has significant RE magnet stocks and production capability (having been preparing for this since the last China RE embargo - unlike the West) - anyone know how the SPs of the Japanese RE Magnet fabricators have been doing lately?

All those who take no interest in short term trading - move on - nothing to see here for you.

Trading today is reasonably high volume with almost 1m shares changing hands by 13:00.

Buys are ahead of sells, but the SP is down from a high of 70.6p to around 65p.

The large majority of sells is AT trades (as usual) and they follow a pattern of the last few days where, as soon as the Buy/Sell ratio starts looking healthy, AT trades dive in to neutralise the action and bring the balance back to evens, and pull down the SP. The only (limited) news about Pensana/Longonjo has been favourable so why is this?

Could it be that it's a ploy to artificially knock back the SP to ecourage buyers (corporates?) when the US Market opens in an hour's time?

For a while now, the NY exchange opening has been followed by a steady stream of buying and the SP responding positively.

Whatever - the trading of PRE shares still seems subject to manipulation on a day by day basis.

Whoops - make that last Black Friday 13th not 24th Sep 2024 - eejit.

And there she blows - up 7.14% and a high of 55p this Black Friday.

If we seen the sp increase by today's amount on the previous Black Friday (24 Sep 2024), we'd have been dancing in the streets with a 32% gain in one day.

I don't think the MM's, BOTS and chancers are going to be able to stem the sp for very much longer - you've just about had your fun guys - now p*ss off please.

MAA86 - check out the PRE historical price chart from Friday 13th Sep 2024 - the only way is up.

Encore!

Valuation: not so much - China is still far too dependent on sea-based supply lines which are vulnerable to Western sanctions (like making it impossible to insure their suppliers vessels) or simple blockades of their sea-routes - especially for oil imports. They're working on that by switching power and transport to EVs and solar/wind/nuclear power on a truly massive scale, while building their navy and air strike capabaility at a rate far exceeding western spend. So I'd give it about another 3 years for Taiwan.

Their current action on RE embargoes to US and Europe could just be due to running out of suppy for several RE elements - notably terbium and dysprosium (needed for doping Nd+Pr magnets) due to over-extraction in China and political problems with the Myanmar ionic clay supply chain.

I suggest you check out the very good in-depth assessment MAA86 posted on the SubStack link below - worthwhile reading.

The rare earth magnets supply chain crisis is continuing to tighten for the US and Europe. Currently Pres Xi holds a fistful of trumps (sorry couldn't resist that one) and is very annoyed with the round of chips. chip fab, fab software , AI and other technology embargoes Trump is forcing onto any number of China's vital component and services suppliers, through threats of secondary tariff action against them world wide. As China maintains constraints on metals critical to America’s national security, Washington is ramping up tech restrictions. In recent weeks, the US has barred the shipping of critical jet engine parts to China, throttled Beijing’s access to chip-design software and slapped fresh curbs on Huawei Technologies Co. chips.

Summary of where it's all headed:

WASHINGTON, May 30 (Reuters) - Global auto executives are sounding the alarm on an impending shortage of rare-earth magnets from China – used in everything from windshield-wiper motors to anti-lock braking sensors – that could force the closure of car factories within weeks.

https://nypost.com/2025/06/02/business/why-chinas-mineral-monopoly-has-emerged-as-key-obstacle-in-us-tariff-talks-they-hold-virtually-all-of-the-cards/

China’s exploitation of its monopoly over rare earth elements has become a major sticking point in high-stakes trade talks with President Trump – and experts warn the US needs to prepare for the worst. Beijing has infuriated Trump officials by failing to loosen its crackdown on exports of seven “heavy” rare earth metals which are essential for gadgets like smartphones and electric cars as well as military hardware like F-35 fighter jets and drones.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-china-trade-talks-heres-one-sticking-point-in-getting-back-on-track-4863ada7 says:

On Friday, Trump fumed that China had “totally violated” the terms of a preliminary trade agreement struck in Geneva, which included a 90-day tariff truce that runs until mid-August. Trump didn’t elaborate, but US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said one concern was that China “continues to, you know, slow down and choke off” the flow of critical minerals to the US. Trade talks are now “a bit stalled,” in Bessent’s words.

Trumps' tit-for-tat' moves have angered the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese officials on Monday vowed to respond and accused the US of undermining the Geneva consensus, dimming the chance of a leaders call.

Trump as of Friday morning, meanwhile, did not appear ready for discussions, saying on Truth Social that “China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, has totally violated its agreement with us.”

Pensana is now listed the third most viable and advanced new magnet metals supply chain development in the world - at a stupidly low valuation comparared to other the two multi-billion leaders. Go figure.

Over on ADVFN you can see all the trades for PRE today up to about 15 mins ago.

Most of the early action was AT buys pushing the price up from 27.pp to 35.9p by 08:40. But in the same period there was also a steady stream of O buys of about 250,000 shares all of which had 3-digit precision buy prices - Hargreaves Lansdown (among others) prices to that accuracy.

Then the AT sells started in force up to 09:15 driving the price down to 33.9p.

Then AT reversed to buying, driving the price up to a high of 35.9 by 09:47, then AT trades just stopped or the next hour up to 11:00.

At 11:00 a single O trade (delayed trade time-stamped at 09:03) with a 4-digit price precision dropped almost 300,000 shares. I believe Fidelity do prices at this level of precision on their $ trades. A similar delayed O sell with 4-digit pricing for 100,000 was listed around 09:50 with a time-stamp of 08:50.

Trading since then up to 13:00 shows some O sellers with 3 digit pricing dumping over 100,000 shares and the spread tightening to 0.7p. Our 4-digit price O trader just made an exploratory sell at 13:11 so there's more fun on the way....

Where does this take us? My guess is its a pump and dump operation - possibly inspired by Wall Street rallies in the last 2 days lifting prices, encouraging the bot traders to end their week with a Fun Friday.

In the absence of any PRE news it's either that or information leakage somewhere about a significant development over this weekend maybe?

Breaking news:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/24/trump-weighs-investments-in-critical-mineral-companies-burgum-says.html

"OKLAHOMA CITY — The Trump administration is considering investing in companies that mine and process critical minerals in an effort to end U.S. dependence on imports from countries including China, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said this week. “We should be taking some of our balance sheet and making investments,” Burgum said late Wednesday at a conference organized by the Hamm Institute for American Energy. The U.S. may need to make an “equity investment in each of these companies that’s taking on China in critical minerals,” he said.

“We have to get back in the game,” Burgum said, referring to mining. “It’s not just drill, baby, drill. It’s mine, baby, mine. If we don’t do that as a country, we will not be successful. We will literally be at the mercy of others that are controlling our supply chains.”

The administration is also considering a sovereign risk insurance fund to protect corporate investments in approved projects, Burgum said.

Try this:

https://forum.rareearthexchanges.com/threads/trump-tariff-probe-on-critical-minerals-not-needed-i-just-wrote-it-for-him.10/

Poster dismisses Lutnick's 180 day probe, commissioned by Trump into China RE Tariffs, as a waste of time which Trump doesn't have. See poster's table of 19 current 'ready-to-go' RE supply chain projects Trump should be investing in now.

Pensana is listed. It's the second largest production option behind Lynas. Poster reckons Trump only needs to invest $20bn ($2bn in Pensana's case) across the board to make a real advance towards getting most of these non-China supply chains up and running in 3-5 years

Trump can't swerve this one - China is already nailing down the lid on their RE/Magnet US embargo - S Korea has now just been put on formal notice of sanctions by China, if it continues to supply China-origin RE magnet metals and magnets or equipment using them to the US by any route. So clearly, China has zero interest in offering any kind of "soft landing" deal on REs with the US, it is going for the jugular.

Remains to be seen where the Donald is now going to run. But - as the poster points out - $20bn is a drop in the ocean for US govt investment.

Also see the linked posts on Arafura share price market manipulation - some relevant points here for current PRE SP anomalies?