Member Info for Hogsnipe

Greek - the sh** is now hitting the fan in the RE magnet metals market particularly. Shanghai Metals Market stats would have you believe it's 'business ass usual' according to their market prices today . Here's an excellent assessment of what's actually happening and what's to come:

https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/rare-earth-magnets-critical-2025-applications/

Dysprosium oxide has experienced the most dramatic price impact, surging to approximately $204/kg in Shanghai markets – a 27% increase since controls were announced. The element is particularly crucial for EV motors that must operate at high temperatures without demagnetization. Outside China, prices have climbed even higher, reaching $275/kg in Japanese and European markets due to supply uncertainty and panic buying. Terbium, another critical element for high-temperature applications, has seen spot prices increase to $1,230/kg, approaching its all-time high from 2011.

I asked CoPilot (Windows AI chatbot): Has the metals market price for neodymium, praseodymium and finished neo magnet metal started to increase following China's embargo on shipment on 14 Apr. Are there signs of panic ordering or stockpiling?

Response was:

"Yes, prices for neodymium and praseodymium have started to rise following China's embargo on shipments. Market sources indicate that Chinese suppliers are holding firm on higher offer prices, rejecting lower bids.

- Neodymium-praseodymium oxide prices increased to $53-55 per kg on April 18, up from $52-54 per kg a week earlier.

- Neodymium-praseodymium metal prices rose to $66-68 per kg, compared to $65-67 per kg previously.

- Neodymium prices have surged 12.88% since the beginning of 2025, reflecting heightened market activity.

While some buyers are rushing to place orders, others remain cautious, monitoring the market before making large purchases. Stockpiling activities have been observed, particularly among trading firms and magnet manufacturers, who are eager to secure materials amid tightening supply."

Japanese firms, scarred by China's 2010 rare earth embargo, maintain robust stockpiles averaging 12-18 months of projected needs

American companies have generally optimized for just-in-time supply chains, with most maintaining only 30-60 days of inventory. The Trump administration is reportedly planning an aggressive stockpiling initiative focused on deep-sea minerals (whhaaat?) to counter China's resource dominance. The plan would allocate $1.2 billion for acquiring strategic materials from international markets while simultaneously accelerating development of domestic resources

So there we have it - either Trump backs off (yet again) or panic buying is going to push the US into a very hard place in just about 30 days time.

See the article here:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/what-critical-mineral-exports-is-china-limiting-amid-tariff-war-with-us/articleshow/119985315.cms

China today (4 Apr) announced export restrictions and tighter controls on supplying all countries, not just the US, with RE (rare earth) metals and finished magnets. The move is seen as a warning how easily China can weaponise its RE dominance of both production and world-wide supply chains.

It has placed on export controls 7 further medium REs (samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium) - many of which are required components of the 'neo-magnets' essential for EVs, defence and aerospace, and green tech.

Adamas Intelligence stresses this is a very significant retaliation against Trump's new China tariffs imposed this week saying: "Full-blown export restrictions on high-performance rare earth magnets containing dysprosium and/or terbium will hit foreign industries and defence sectors hard, creating a scramble for access to the limited sources of alternative supply – namely in Japan and South Korea," said Ryan Castilloux, founder of consultancy Adamas Intelligence.

Reuters report: https://www.reuters.com/world/china-hits-back-us-tariffs-with-rare-earth-export-controls-2025-04-04/

China has hit back hard, including not only mined minerals but finished products such as permanent magnets, which will be difficult to replace, analysts said. "The move is likely to galvanize efforts in the West to build alternative supply chains", according to Mercator Institute for China Studies analyst Jacob Gunter.

"The more China pulls this trigger, even if it's limited to the United States, this will cause European companies and European governments and other countries and their governments to also think about, what's the risk of us also having these export controls put on us?"

IMHO - this is just another tightening of the noose that China has round the Donald's neck- not an outright ban, but export controls and licences can be targeted so easily to throttle supplies selectively. This has happened already with antimony - one of several critical minerals China previously placed on export control last September. China has exported zero antimony to Europe since then, and the market price has soared to $40,000 per tonne at end 2024.

Trump has to now take a very hard look at US alternative supply chains - especially from Africa and Australia. He's not got many MAGA/US on-shore supply options at all. He's action man personified, so this will probably happen sooner rather than later.

Time to watch market prices for RE magnet metal raw materials, refined concentrates, and magnets themselves.

The recent JORC enhancement for Longonjo could pale into insignificance against its new valuation...

Here we go:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-says-opposes-us-tariffs-030327805.html

- states today:

"China previously responded to US tariffs with levies of up to 15 percent on a range of US agricultural goods including soybeans, pork and chicken. Chen Wenling, chief economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges in Beijing, told AFP that Beijing could potentially impose export controls of critical and rare minerals to the United States in response".

This makes for an interesting background to the Crux Investor Apr 2 interview with PA. PA hints at closed discussions with US and refers to the Oct 2024 US DFC grant to Pensana to come up with a 100% increase in Longonjo output, and that the Export–Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) is now in a fully-funded position for supporting worldwide critical minerals supply chain investment. PA also hints that the whole back-end magnet metal refinery topic is back up in the air again, and there are a number alternatives to Saltend now being discussed.

However, he has some worrying stuff to say about front-end financing for Longonjo. First tranche of finance will be an equity call n the next few weeks diluting Pensana's current ownership from 84% down to 70% to raise initial funds for the 2025/6 build. He also acknowledges that there are still issues with the longer-term debt financing relating to due diligence on pilot production (2027) and other process risks, not to mention current US geopolitical uncertainties. The second equity refinancing call requires $108m and may lead to a further dilution in equity to 52% current ownership by 2030.

Both equity calls come at a bad time in the finance market, where current conditions are not favourable for fund-raisers, and no improvement likely until 2027-2029.

My view - the share price currently reflects the difficulties facing PRE to get Longonjo off the ground with equity financing, without direct US investment involvement or support at present. An all-out RE embargo on supply of RE/magnets/magnet metals to US by China will change all that very quickly. Pensana is the only RE mining development anywhere near cherry-picking in the West. The US has the money and the means and will urgently need to show it has at least one secured supply chain already in place should China pull the plug.

Watch this space.....

China/Tony/Sundrum/Mumbles - I've lost track of who and where the major players are in the Pensana register, eg: PA used to be Selection Capital Limited, State Street I think is M&G - can you help me with any other names against the current Top 20 holdings? Much appreciated.

ASF YOVA MININGHOLDING L:TD - Angola Sovereign Wealth Fund

VIDACOS NOMINEES LIMITED

STATE STREET NOMINEES LIMITED - M&G?

IINTERACTIIVE BROKERS LLC

PERSHING NOMINEESLIMITED

THE BANK OF NEW YORK (NOMINEES) LIMITED

HARGREAVES LANSDOWN (NOMINEES) LIMITED

SECURITIES SERVICES NOMINEES LIMITED

HSBC GLOBAL CUSTODY NOMINEE (UK) LIMITED

!INTERACTIVEINVESTORSERVICES NOMINEES LIMITED

RENE NOMINEES {IOM) LIMITED

LYNCHWOOD NOMINEES LIMITED

LAWSHARE NOMINEES LIMITED

JAMES BREARLEY CREST NOMINEES LIMITED

HSDL NOMINEES LIMITED

JAMES CAPEL (NOMINEES) LIMITED

BARCLAYS DIRECT INVESTING NOMINEES LIMITED

EAST AFRICA INTERNATIONAL LTD

PUMA NOMINEES LIMITED

GHC NOMINEES LIMITED

Back in Mar 2021, this interview made interesting viewing, when PA revealed Pensana's antipathy towards retail/smaller investors:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nQ0YbamzVU

- fast forward to 19mins 10seconds in the video to seee PA say "we have 30% retail investors and we have to generate the buying to take them out", then confirms he and Virginia are actively working to clear out retail PRE investors in favour of larger institutional investors.

It has certainly worked. In July 2021 the top 20 PRE shareholders held about 4 times as many shares as the rest, at about 80% of the register (putting aside that some of the top 20 nominee accounts also have some retail investors).

Right now the top 20 hold 9 times the rest ie: 90% of the register.

Some 12.5 million shares have left the hands of smaller investors and been picked up by the top 20. Probably more if we could see how the top 20 nominee broker accounts with retail holders, like Hargreaves, have shifted.

The questions in my mind are:

How has Pensana achieved this clear out?

Have we just witnessed a record 4 year tree shake?

Is it reaching the end?

Sundrum - thanks very useful link. Another of Trump's many presidential decrees, but this time with Churchillian 'action this day" timescale.

His presidential order is to crack on with as much supply chain reshoring of the critical minerals (rare earths and magnets included) industry as fast as possible and dismantle a bunch of bureaucratic barriers to US domestic and global financing and loan approvals to clear the way and make things happen ASAP.

Angola and Pensana are both in US sights, following the previous Presidental trip to Angola in December, where Biden announced "Collaborations between U.S. financial institutions and Angola’s central bank could enhance financial governance and transparency, attracting international investors and boosting foreign direct investment (FDI), which totaled $8.2 billion in 2022"

The US DFC already granted Pensana $3.4M to carry out a feasibility study on doubling its Longonjo mine/refinery output, and is committed to economic development of the Lobito Corridor. Biden concluded his address to the Angolan President with remarks along the lines of - new trade agreements are likely to include provisions for exporting rare earth minerals to the U.S., creating a steady revenue stream for Angola and securing critical materials for the U.S. clean energy sector.

In your link, the key sections to note are b), c), f) and g).

Section f) specifically refers to global suppliers:

'Within 30 days of the date of this order, the President of the Export-Import Bank shall release recommended program guidance for the use of mineral and mineral production financing tools authorized under the Supply Chain Resiliency Initiative to secure United States offtake of global raw mineral feedstock for domestic minerals processing"

and Section g):

'Within 30 days of the date of this order, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy shall convene buyers of minerals and work towards an announced request for bids to supply the minerals'.

So, my reading of this is - Trump wants to secure new global non-China supply chains ASAP, of which Angola is one of the most advanced, and is willing to put US money where his mouth is to secure offtakes for refined RE ores shipment to US, all within the next 30 days.

Good news or what?

55 trades up to 10am today - 397K bought - overwhelming buy - buy/sell ratio 10.6 to 1.

Next 10 trades in 10 mins upto 10:23am - all sells 380K sold mainly AT - buy/sell ratio now 0.93 to 1.

Next to no buys from then, up to 12:30 today - but more AT sells push down the Buy/sell ratio to 0.77 to 1

And Bid/Ask prices both up on the open!

No way is this a normal market today - any thoughts?

Tony - there's something odd about the PRE shares changing hands in the last two days. Almost all of the significant trading volume was shifted in a small number of trades, but there was a massive number of sub-£100 trades. Despite AS1971 saying there was more PRE selling a than buying today, the Buy/Sell ratio was comfortably positive both today and yesterday.

Here's the figures:

** 19 Mar 2025 trading PRE **

Total number of deals: 349

42 deals accounted for 1.89million shares bought ie: 92.5% of total bought

41 deals accounted for 1.43 million shares sold ie 87.15% of all sold

153 deals valued less than £100 made up 43.9% of all deals

Buy to Sell ratio 1.35 to 1

____________________________________________________________________

** 18 Mar 2025 trading PRE **

Total number of deals: 1,114

65 deals accounted for 2.39 million shares bought, ie: 83.2% of all shares bought

71 deals accounted for 1.74million shares sold ie: 81.3% of all shares sold

304 deals valued less than £100 made up 27.3% of all deals

Buy to Sell ratio 1.25 to 1

____________________________________________________________________

Any thoughts on the large amounts of small trades? And why the price fell with favourable Buy/Sell ratios on both days?

AS1971 - I remember when you first started posting on this board about 4 years ago. You climbed onto the same RE bandwagon in the early days time as I did - when PRE first surged over £1.00 plus. Then you got cold feet as the price plunged to sub £1 and worse. Me too - but I bought more 3 times on the drops to dilute my average price - including one buy when PRE was well below 20p.

It's called backing your hunches. You do the research, weigh up the risks and do whatever is necessary to back up your decision and maximise your return.

Have another look here:

https://www.smallcapinvestor.ca/post/the-lassonde-curve-understanding-the-mining-life-cycle

and you'll see that PRE has followed a fairly predictable junior miners path since it was listed on the LSE. while actually bringing in financing well ahead of the Lassonde timescales.

You'll also see that we long-term-holders can now relax as PRE moves on into the major SP growth 'development & startup' section of the Lassonde curve. Again, Pensana is ahead of the game, with feasibility, engineering, permitting already in the bag and construction already started, and now - financing is 95% there.

Other posters here have tried to spell out that they too have no worries about PRE valuations, now or in the medium term.

So why not stop whining, cheer up, forget every micro SP ups & down, and enjoy the ride?

Watching to see how US interest moves now NYSE is open.

Just looking at the PRE SP chart, there has been a sustained downturn since the end of January.

I wonder if the INDABA announcement by Novare and ReElement about their initial $100M project to build 3 new RE and critical materials refineries across sub-Saharan Africa - commencing build in 2025 (!) may have dented Pensana's prospects?

See here for the announcement video:

https://www.cnbcafrica.com/media/6368605058112/novare-announces-100mn-refining-facility-in-africa/

Derrick Roper (Novare MD) said the refineries will all be close to RE mining sites, and use a new environmentally friendly ore-processing method based on chromatography developed by US ReElement, which is capable of extracting single RE elements from variable mixed ore feedstock and even waste products containing REs.

When pressed where these will be built, he said the first is likely to be at in SA (Gauteng?) build starting H2 2025, and the others will be DRC, Zambia and significantly - the Lobito corridor and Angola.

This lends weight to the argument that it's economically important for refining capacity to be built near the mines in Africa, so Saltend now looks even further out on a limb. If there was to be a Novare financed refinery next to Longonjo, there would presumably need to be some sort of financial deal guaranteeing offtake and backing by the Angolan Sovereign Wealth fund. Also, Pensana might have to re-vsit their current engineering design for Longonjo free dig material to refined mixed RE carbonate processing.

Does this pose a risk for the future of Pensana and its current quest for financing?

Tony - another rant from our Substack friends - very entertaining take on the Ukraine minerals deal - real laugh a minute stuff thanks.

Unsurprisingly, it had nothing much to say on the key question - how much are Ukraine's rare earth deposits really worth?

Other sources:

https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/2/ukraine-rare-earths-potential-relies-on-soviet-assessments-may-not-be-viable-87318842

- say that the evidence for Ukraine's rare earth deposits is based on Soviet mapping explorations done as long as 45 to 65 years ago and no sources contacted by Commodity Insights were aware of any commercial exploration or assessment of those deposits in the post-Soviet period. Some of the rare earth sites are now under Russian occupation, others are of a ore type which has never been successfully refined, and overall quality remains largely unknown.

"Unfortunately, there is no modern assessment" of rare earth reserves in Ukraine, Roman Opimakh, former director general of the Ukrainian Geological Survey, told Commodity Insights in an email. "And there is still restriction to make this information public."

There we have it - Ukraine has not a single rare earth mine, zero rare earth exports and a probably commercialy unviable collection of rare earths deposits, some of which are in the control of a hostile and aggressive invader. Zelensky himself has been trying to secure inward investment to mine rare earths since 2020 - no takers - and even when China pushed rare earth prices up by >100% - no takers then either.

So much for the "beautiful deal".

Https://www.telegrafi.com/en/When-fools-fight-over-nothing--Ukraine-has-no-rare-minerals./

Does anyone believe Ukraine can possibly supply $500bn worth of rare earth minerals, which is about 50 times the world RE market value? Have a read of this short article:

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/market-opinion-and-analysis-blog/the-bizarre-case-of-ukraines-rare-earths

Here's where I got a random text sample of Chris Ecclestone's writing/style: https://hallgartenco.com/pdf/Thinkpieces/Trumped.pdf, written by the man himself.

So I ran that through the 'Authorship Test' app I have, on this, versus some random text from Theo's past PRE posts, as well as a sample of a dear old friend 'Hamilton Engineering''s posts some years ago on ADVFN on the subject of PRE.

And just for fun I added third sample of TornadoTony's writing style/posts text.

So what did the analysis reveal - who is most similar to Chris Ecclestone of our three contenders - Theo, Hamilton and Tony?

Here we go: bottom of the similarity index is TornadoTony at 43% (Hardly Likely to be Ecclestone)

Next is: Hamilton Engineering at 73% similarity (joint most likely to be Ecclestone)

Top Ranker: Theo at 80% similarity (joint most likely to be Ecclestone)

I have no idea how the app works this out, but it's food for thought, that's all - not proof - not verifiable - not advice - always do your own research, not investment recommendation, not a weather forecast, no good for picking |Lottery numbers, etc.

Feb 4/5th - WASHINGTON – US President Donald Trump said on Monday 3 Feb he wants Ukraine to supply the United States with rare earth minerals as a form of payment for financially supporting the country's war efforts against Russia:

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/trump-says-he-wants-ukraine-to-supply-us-with-rare-earths-2025-02-04

Unfortunately, a lot of RE deposits in Ukraine lie under Russian boots presently:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/what-are-ukraines-rare-earths-why-does-trump-want-them-2025-02-05/

Ukraine has deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals identified by the European Union as critical, according to economy ministry data. This includes industrial and construction materials, ferroalloy, precious and non-ferrous metals and some rare earth elements. Ukraine also has significant reserves of coal; however, most of them are now under the control of Russia in occupied territory.

SecDev’s analysis indicates that at least $12.4 trillion worth of Ukraine’s energy deposits, metals and minerals are now under Russian control. That figure accounts for nearly half the dollar value of the 2,209 deposits reviewed by the company. In addition to 63 percent of the country’s coal deposits, Moscow has seized 11 percent of its oil deposits, 20 percent of its natural gas deposits, 42 percent of its metals and 33 percent of its deposits of rare earth and other critical minerals including lithium.

So the Don can ask for the (rare) earth from Ukraine, but Russia looks on with a bear-like smile....

SunDrum - thanks for the heads up - it's just the 'welcome to the forum' chit chat with the group administrator I think. Dull old chatroom compared to the variety here....

Sundrum/4kandles - there's about as much activity on the Farceberk Pensana group as there is here - not a lot...

Thanks SunDrum and China - I'll have another crack at Farceberk this evening.

SunDrum - more detail on how to join the private Pensana discussion group on Fac*b00k please? I set up a new Facebook account and searched groups for Pensana - diddly squat.... How do I contact the Pensana Group Admin and request to join?