Member Info for hjkl

Leveraging increased a lot. HBR wasn't a widows and orphans stock before and it surely isn't now

Strong oil price and this company will make a bundle, weak oil price and people will be wondering why they bit off more than they could chew.

Same old story but to be fair one major + for HBR is that assets are in relatively stable countries so you don't have to account for much political risk

I still also haven't bought here. Shows though that there are a lot of interested in DGE

Can't see much happening on the + side strategy wise etc until the new boss has got his feet under the desk. The normal course of events is to kitchen sink it with any necessary balance sheet write downs / asset sales and div cuts right at the start of his tenure

That doesn't fuss me - what I want to see is that even with possibly a slimmed down company that premium brand values are protected and margins are maintained ie no chasing of tails with lower prices / higher market share. If he doesn't do that then I think I'm in

Accept that growth has stalled in Europe / North America but still think there is a lot of potential rest of world - affluent Asia in particular

Don't know for sure but I'll probably sell in the market closer to the election date.

Risk reduced on the transaction completing and moving towards a firmer timetable means that AWE price should move closer to the equivalent Qualcomm price.

Has OCDO ever paid a dividend. I think one year it might have made a profit ?

It's been going for years now at what point do investors say enough is enough. As ever the Achilles heel is the debt and bondholders losing faith.

I don't know enough about TLW to know if that's right or not.

But if you are right it doesn't say much about the company's prospects. Basically the lenders want the best deal for them - if they see that as simply getting

as much of the debt repaid as possible then it doesn't say much about any upside they may see via equity ownership. See you in 3 months !

About every 3 months or so dip into the TLW chat. Same old same old treading water.

Can't remember what I said last time but nothing is going to change until the company is recapitalised with a debt for equity swap probably leaving existing shareholders at around 5p. Once that happens and with a fair wind of a healthy oil price and favourable local politics then you might see share price growth from there.

This is not good at all. Price indicates some market scepticism on the deal going through.

To me this would be a pure gamble with not enough upside. Good luck to anyone convincing themselves that 30 p is not the maximum and 0 p is not the minimum.

I make the equivalent value of the Qualcomm share option now 240 p so maybe more fun to come.

Never understood what is the sales pitch of B&M. Why should the potential customer go there.

Not good enough to say "discount store". Yes but selling what - a bit of this and that doesn't cut it in today's retail market.

You know what you get with Lidl or Aldi. It's a discount supermarket. To me discount can still mean quality it just means no frills.

I fear another Woolworths

Another tempter. Even though the FTSE is at a high there are lots of stocks that have taken a hit and are at multi year lows.

Never seriously looked at Mondi before but the balance sheet net assets may be interesting to the private equity leveraging crowd.

At first glance you sort of think of paper and packaging as a sunset industry but that could well be unfair - all those ebay parcels need to be wrapped up somehow ;-)

Also wonder about potential for growth in other sectors such as construction

Still thinking about buying DGE

Don't like the numbers but really like the brand values. I hope that some of the rumours here aren't true about what they're planning. The premium valuation is all about aspiration for quality branded products - if you go discount bulk you lose that allure and you almost certainly can't get it back. Promotions fine, permanently low prices no.

In my opinion margins are more important than volumes.

Plus we also sometimes forget that trends in western Europe (declining alcohol consumption, trips to Lidl/Aldi etc) are a small part of the story. DGE is a global company and the potential for long term growth in Asia is still good.

Can't be bothered to look it up either but I know the timetable is 2026 not this year.

Yam, there is an option to take Qualcomm stock in the takeover offer. Haven't done the exact sums today but the equivalent value is something like 205p.

AWE price has been creeping up because Qualcomm stock has been doing quite well in the mean time.

Nothing has changed or everything has changed unless someone knows whether $110m was good value or not eg viz an auction of the company's assets

under administration

The fact is folks we just don't know apart from that the disposal was described as non-core and presumably Sidara viewed it as such as well.

Oh well. For tomorrow's post I can just cut and paste this morning's.

''So is there a running book on the various outcomes

Another extension

Deal off

Deal accepted at 30 p

Reduced offer

Something else''

So is there a running book on the various outcomes

Another extension

Deal off

Deal accepted at 30 p

Reduced offer

Something else

Shareholders still own the company and their approval is required for major resolutions

The point is though that the lenders have the whip hand when things are this bad. How many dozens of times have we seen this - a sword of damocles -accept a nominal offer or the company will go into admin and you'll likely end up with 0p.

Even though it's not much I'd still be amazed if even 30p happens. I'd have thought 10p - not a valuation just a reflection of the lack of options.

Same outcome for TLW as for any number of previous debt distressed companies.

The share price is reflecting the inevitable. In this situation the bondholders are in control not the shareholder - this means massive dilution eg 5 pence

or whatever as the price for restructuring.

Double take this morning looking at those numbers

My eyes did not deceive me these are good results from BP. One swallow etc but let's hope finally the corner has been turned and there's much more to come.