Member Info for hjkl

Watching DGE with interest. Thinking about taking a punt but in my experience the stock market these days tends not to be generous

ie if results disappoint tomorrow the price will fall more than they will rise if they are better than expected (?! discuss)

So I'll wait to see what tomorrow brings. I like the brand values of this company so it's mainly a question of how good the management is.

Clarkson shipping steady as she goes.

Share price took a hit on the Trump tariffs on April. Surprise surprise world trade hasn't ended in the mean time and the price has recovered a fair chunk.

Normal for this type of situation is that the bondholders are in control. Shareholders will be massively diluted with a nominal (5p) a share.

OK so maybe this time it will be different but I wouldn't be holding my breath

Saw the share price this morning and thought not again Zantac etc

This news is par for the course for a pharma company. Haven't bought more but agree it's a ridiculous over reaction.

Wipeout for shareholders or a nominal (eg 1 p) a share ?

Real shame. Wood was one of the key contractors in the development of North Sea oil and gas.

Hold both BP and Shell.

From BP angle would very much like Shell's interest to be real or indeed an American major

From Shell angle I say stay away you're doing very well - a takeover would present all sorts of headaches

BTW you can't read anything in the Shell RNS it's absolutely standard language. Just take it at face value - media speculation and they're setting the record straight

Don't hold TLW but I know they have a large debt pile compared with market cap.

Anyone know what the terms / profile is. If an acquirer can restructure by reissuing on its credit rating the interest bill will be a lot lower. If it's 10%

or whatever and the coupon is fixed for term then to be honest I don't think I'd touch it.

You could argue there's too much leeway but basically it's the target company's (TLW) call whether they announce preliminary discussions.

However, now that the cat or the non existent cat is out of the bag it might be wise to issue a "response to recent press speculation" RNS.

My guess back on 1st April was £2 but with a huge range of £1.50 up to the IPO price

So not too bad. Pleased though that it's a simple takeover offer and not something difficult to unravel like a joint venture

Assume the share price is responding to US China trade news

Another set of excellent results

People (and the markets I venture) tend to look at the oil price for day to day variations in share price

Shell when you count both upstream operations and its downstream operations such as LNG now has a gas business worth quite a bit more than oil.

Better start looking at daily US futures gas prices.

My guess £2. But for this business it could very realistically be anything between say £1.50 and the original IPO price.

Very difficult to value so I won't try.

BP's share price performance has been very poor but the reasons are not difficult - poor management including wobbly strategy

Therefore it needs to do two things - get competent, experienced management to focus on what it's core focus should have been all along. In my view the best chance of achieving this is relocating HQ to the US where that talent mostly resides. If that also means a primary share listing in New York then so be it.

And secondly divest it's renewables business so no distractions. That could be a sale if the price is right but in parallel prepare for a separate delisting just in case - no reason why this can't be based in London.

Job done.

Thanks for the PDF. Appreciate it.

The gas question is answered - a mixture of gas injection and gas lift. For operational reasons this will probably mean temporary flaring consents as well but I'm sure that won't be a problem.

As far as I could see on the oil - it's just exported to "market". Presumably they believe any further info is commercially sensitive but it will be important for project economics in terms of transportation discounts. I think I also saw from the exec summary that the crude is waxy so this will lead to a valuation discount and possibly rejection from some refineries due to compatibility issues with other crudes / refinery configuration.

Not an investor but interested in this project because of the geographical (and to some extent political) isolation.

Interested to know what the proposed export routes are. Will tankers directly load stabilised crude from the FPSO and ..... go where ? Long way to any refinery so discount will apply plus any composition / spec issues.

Also what about gas - flaring not allowed presumably ?? so will there be some consumption in the Falklands but additional cost with pipeline transport, processing etc.

Thanks

Any chance of dropping the bp and going back to BP and the shield ?? Thought not.

Don't follow Wood Group at all so I'll ask the question.

Anyone know what the covenants are on the company's debt.

Regardless of the jam tomorrow forecast of cash flow what usually happens in this situation is that the covenants have been breached and the bondholders take over. A shareholder vote is required so it'll be a sword of damocles either the company is wound up or shareholders get a nominal (10 p ?)

Results in a newly recapitalised company owned eg 95% by the debtholders and 5% by shareholders.

Lost count the number of times this has happened. Other things such as a takeover are possible but much less likely due to the power of the bondholders - all depends on those covenants

You can't say anything other than that's impressive.

Valuation multiple is tasty by FTSE standards but low by US tech standards. More to come I guess but in any event a very well run company

Capital markets day strategy etc Feb 26th. Seriously ?

Considering the news over the weekend you have to adapt to circumstances. Maybe the date is booked in the diary but you have to bring it forward as well. The markets won't twiddle their thumbs for a fortnight.

Always been convention that the govt would block a BP takeover.

Maybe they would again but it would illustrate the political hypocrisy. If oil and BP is key UK national asset why are the PR, policies (no new licences to name just one) and taxes so unfriendly ?

Sure would be interesting to see how it played out.