Member Info for HillSeeker

Bought back in yet again at 965 this time. Can see a bit of a bounce coming - but expecting further downside after Christmas. Not a bad share to trade as you should only invest in a company that you would be happy to hold long-term. So, if I get caught out, I'm happy to be holding Jet2. This is a good price as an investment into a quality UK small cap.

Yep., absolute bargain at this level - if you are looking for short term gain it could still see some downside as the markets tend to over-react to each bit of small news but as a medium to long term investment this is looking v good value.

@P100 speak for yourself ref being happy to accept £6

I have no intention of voting for anything or selling any below £15 and that's just a starting point. Great things await this company and we're only just at the beginning of the transformation.

You say: "I am also incredibly suspicious when it pops up for no reason"

Well I'm incredibly suspicious that this has been held down for so long for no apparent reason.

People thought covid was over - but here we are with testing back to all-time highs and our test is only one of seven accredited in the UK. And we're selling top class tests and machines around the world. I'm not surprised the company is quiet - they've no time to breath let alone speak.

We should be at least at £7 now and double this on dispute resolution.

Keep hold of your golden tickets - when this goes it's going to go!

GL all LTH

Agree - get Christmas over and then more restrictions. Even if Omicron is half as severe, the NHS will be overwhelmed by end of Jan due to speed of spread and AZ vaccine evasion.

@Buelight
I completely agree, someone is targeting this big time. The evidence is on this board to see. We have a new crowd of recently joined posters who do not strike me as the type to be able to afford their own investments, so must be working on behalf of somebody else. Plus they only seem to be paid for working certain hours The way they suddenly appeared in cohort also points to this. Clearly, they are clever enough to pull in a couple of existing derampers to support their arguments and give themselves an element of credence. To me, it was so plain to see that, by 8:30 this morning, I'd switched off LSE for this share. I pity those of you who have been putting up with/countering this drivel all day.

Why are they doing it? Clearly they are either shorting, which I doubt (too risky as any news could see this fly) but more likely a small caculated shorts and/or sell off whilst causing fear and confusion on social media in oder to suppress the SP and regain entry at a lower price. There not many shares with so many small PI invested who have been in far longer than they anticipated and possibly many of whom need at least some of the money for the upcoming season - calculated as easy (distressed) targets. Plus, the psychology of thinking they were on the up only to be foiled once again.

This is the only plausible explanation I can come up with. The SP is behaving completely irrational considering the change in regulations towards PCR, not just in this country, and the huge increas in testing. They are using the information vacuum as cover and have taken a calculated gamble that we are now not going to get an update until possibly the new year and that we may not hear anything on the dispute for much longer.

But it is a huge risk as so much other news could drop or someone else even bigger (iis) could come in and snap up shares at this level.

I don't think this is orchestrated by the company in any way. I don't think they care too much for the day-to-day SP and are more interested in working flat out to maximise this second opportunity that has presented itself, and that will, in the end, create longterm shareholder value afterall.

For my part, I'll just take the SP swings in my stride, safe in the knowledge that every month that passes is at least another 10m in the bank at these testing rates. Each week we become fitter, faster, stronger. At some point (it could be tomorrow, it could be early next year), this will right itself. And I know I will have to wait far longer than that anyway to get to where I'm heading.

I'm still convinced we're heading to multibillion value at some point in the future (certainlyat least £1bn). But that will take some time to achieve. I keep playing that Jeff Bazos clip in my head - "the stock is not the company and the company is not the stock". But the company is increasing in value by the day and the SP will eventually have to reflect that- otherwise someone will, indeed, come along and

@Island girl - I agree totally. This is exactly what happened when we went to Jersey this summer. Tested on arrival- no getting around it, done by a professional. Then to our accommodation - results received by text that evening. Thankfully, all clear.

I tried to find out whether it was our test being used, the turnaround times made it seem likely, but the authorities came back with the usual confidentiality issues.

It's ertainly the way to go though and they've proved it's perfectly feasible - it just needs scaling up to the size of port/airport.

One Versalab trailer or two Sir? Five? No problem, Sir.

The fluctuations are reducing and SP seems to be narrowing onto around 375. It's always good to periodically switch view to a longer range (one month, three months) rather than focus ion minute by minute changes. As any potential gains to be made form swing trading diminish this will , hopefully, settle and provide a solid base for the next tranche.

I shan't list again the considerable catalogue of news items that could potentially drop without notice to move this forward to the next level.

GLA

other good news - the price of fuel is dropping :)

Also, I can't remember whether Ibstock hedge the price of gas, but at least one positive of Omicron is a drop in fuel prices. Plus, commodities dropping will lessen the prospect of inflation and the resulting higher interst rates, which could have potentially further dampened sentiment. Every cloud...

I think someone on here may have said that SAGA hedge the price of oil but at least one positive of Omicron is a drop in fuel prices. Plus, commodities dropping will lessen the prospect of inflation and the resulting higher interst rates, which could have potentially further dampened sentiment. Every cloud...

Alas-Smith - I can understand your frustration. The fundamentals appear v strong, they have weathered the pandemic well and have a great plan for the future with their drive to go Eco - fitting in with UK Gov policy direction. What's not to like?

The Omicron virus looks to be benign and possibly a blessing in disguise. Epidemiologists have been predicting for some time that a weaker mutation would eventually take over. But even if it is as bad as Delta, this won't close building.

The only negative longer term force is perhaps increased inflation and the resulting interest rates hikes. But, with the shortage of houses, I think building will continue to be strong and more dependent on home grown materials rather than imports. I can easily see this back at 240 in the spring.

I agree, it is probably benign from what I can glean, but I think the authorities genuinely are not sure either. I had one foot out the other in with this share.

I have decided to come back in at 267; I don't think we are going to see 255 again. [255 was the price I came out at, somewhat foolishly perhaps, as it now looks like it may have been the bottom. Or, another way of looking at it, I have just paid 12p for my risk aversion! - if it turned out to be as bad as some would have us believe this may have gone (and still could) go a lot lower.]

The word 'probably' indicates a degree of uncertainty, but certainty would cost a lot more than the current price. I don't think we will get a sudden decision in two weeks but a drip feed of information in hospitalisations/cases etc. from around the world will form our view. Epidemiologist have been predicting this [an endemic weaker version of the virus] for some time though.

The mood music form the government is also to be proportionate and just a bit cautious to buy some time. So, the bottom line is, I don't think sailings are going to be stopped. In which case, this SP reflects extremely good value.

I said on 8th Nov tat this a great company but I wasn't sure which way it would go short term. I would take the risk of being out but that I would be back if it ever hit £10 again and here we are.

What a bargain!

The point is, UK Gov made a stupid decision to stop PCR testing travelers. Omicron has given them the cover to save face and change this policy.

The ideal scenario for Novacyt is that travel eventually goes to normal levels but all passengers are PCR tested using regulated tests/providers.

This has legs - let's see how much walking we're going to do!

sorry, DRB - you beat me to it ref two approvals counting as 1

Are you missing SNPsig? I 'm not sure SNPsig and EscapePlex are exactly the same. Either that or there's more than one version of HT test, genesig HT and genesig 3G HT.

@ak_gabba

I agree - 3G most likely still pending. But check your maths again, or read the RNS further:

"Further to the validation of its genesig® COVID-19 test, Novacyt's Primerdesign Ltd PROmate® COVID-19 test (encompassing both the PROmate® 1 Gene q16 and q32 products) remains on the temporary protocol and continues to be supplied to the NHS under the PHE National Microbiology Framework. The Company awaits updates on the additional eight products submitted to the CTDA across its COVID-19 testing portfolio."

The Company awaits updates on the eight additional tests. One approval encompassed two tests, so that's what led me to speculate that the same may apply here and the one approval may include the entire genesig®COVID-19 test range. I doubt it, but it is a possibility. What is for certain, and we agree, there will be huge pressure to push through all the remaining approvals.

@DRB

- OK, I understand you question now. You are thinking that the S gene has mutated (deletion of amino acids 69 and 70 within the spike) and is not entirely missing. I thought the Omicron mutation has no S gene, but I may be wrong. If that is the case the extract below would suggest you are right as some tests would not pick up the S gene, whereas others would. So, we're not any cleared I'm afraid.

"Deletion of amino acids 69 and 70 within the spike (S) gene of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7, sometimes attributable to the N501Y mutation, can result in an undetectable S-gene target (S-gene target failure, SGTF) for some real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing methods. A rapid increase in the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 samples with SGTF was identified in regions of England affected by B.1.1.7, and, after validation with whole genome sequencing, SGTF was determined to be a reliable marker of B.1.1.7 across the country."

Taken from https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778599

cut off again!

@ Porky – yes, sentiment is hugely important and is increasingly overtaking fundamentals as a key driver for SP, especially on AIM and particularly stocks such as Novacyt where there is huge PI interest.
However, information is king, and the situation is fluid, so it is important to stay abreast and be as informed as one can possibly. Is that not the purpose of this BB?

For those that haven’t watched it yet, today’s Marr Show is worth a watch:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00123k0/the-andrew-marr-show-28112021
Includes Dr Paul Burton from Moderna and Dr Angelique Coetze, the South African Doctor who first identified the new stain due to a change in her patients’ symptoms.
The key take-home was from Sajid Javis though:
“Government and private labs will all be required to test for S gene dropout!”
They are using the S gene to screen for Omicron. The Beta virus and other mutations also have S gene drop out, but as 99.9 % of cases in the UK are Delta, which has the S gene, any S gene dropout is likely to be Omicron. Further sequencing would then be required to verify.
The requirement comes into force as from 4:00 a.m. Tuesday. (All inbound passengers are to self-isolate until PCR negative, there was no mention of day 2)

@DBR/RBM Invest
For your information, the way the genesig® 3G works is as follows:
It targets 4 genes, Orf1, S, M and a control gene. To be PCR negative you have to have a positive control result and the remaining three negative. (If all four are negative the test is not valid and needs to be re-run.) If any of the other three genes (Orf1, S, M) are shown positive either on their own or in combination with the others then the sample is considered PCR positive. So genesig® 3G can be used to detect S gene dropout.
Clearly, it was fantastic news that he Company's genesig® COVID-19 Real-Time PCR test has been approved in the UK and added to the CTDA list (one of only 7). It is unclear as to whether this is an umbrella term and includes genesig® 3G and genesig® 3G HT. I suspect these additional two tests are amongst the remaining eight Covid tests waiting for CDTA approval.
I hope this is of some help.

As Karen says, though, this is only affecting UK sales and I would expect us to be struggling to keep up with demand from elsewhere during the current circumstance and it will only be a mater of time before all remaining tests are approved. It won’t be long until Omicron is added to SNPsig®. This will save on expensive and time-consuming full genomic sequencing to verify all positive Omicron suspected cases. So, expect and RNS for that too at some point soon.

Back to Porky’s sentiment: I’m looking forward to the action this week. Things are looking very positive – the sun is out, and we can see the mountain glistening ahead, looming large. Are you ready for the climb?
GLA

@ Porky – yes, sentiment is hugely important and is increasingly overtaking fundamentals as a key driver for SP, especially on AIM and particularly stocks such as Novacyt where there is huge PI interest.

However, information is king, and the situation is fluid, so it is important to stay abreast and be as informed as one can possibly be. Is that not the purpose of this BB?

For those that haven’t seen it yet, today’s Marr Show is worth a watch:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00123k0/the-andrew-marr-show-28112021

Includes Dr Paul Burton from Moderna and Dr Angelique Coetze, the South African Doctor who first identified the new stain due to a change in her patients’ symptoms.

The key take-home was from Sajid Javis though:

“Government and private labs will all be required to test for S gene dropout!”

They are using the S gene to screen for Omicron. The Beta virus and other mutations also have S gene drop out, but as 99.9 % of cases in the UK are Delta, which has the S gene, any S gene dropout is likely to be Omicron. Further sequencing would then be required to verify.

The requirement comes into force as from 4:00 a.m. Tuesday. (All inbound passengers are to self-isolate until PCR negative, there was no mention of day 2)

@DBR/RBM Invest
For your information, the way the genesig® 3G works is as follows:
It targets 4 genes, Orf1, S, M and a control gene. To be PCR negative you have to have a positive control result and the remaining three negative. (If all four are negative the test is not valid and needs to be re-run.) If any of the other three genes (Orf1, S, M) are shown positive either on their own or in combination with the others then the sample is considered PCR positive. So, genesig® 3G can be used to detect S gene dropout.

Clearly, it was fantastic news that the Novacyt's genesig® COVID-19 Real-Time PCR test has been approved in the UK and added to the CTDA list (one of only 7). It is unclear as to whether this is an umbrella term and includes genesig® 3G and genesig® 3G HT (or the "G version for that matter). I suspect these additional tests are amongst the remaining eight Covid tests waiting for CDTA approval.

I hope that is of some help in clarifying.

As Karen says, though, this is only affecting UK sales and I would expect us to be struggling to keep up with demand from elsewhere during the current circumstance, and it will only be a mater of time before all remaining tests are approved. I strongly suspect we will be making a claim for any lost revenue against UK Gov anyway.

It won’t be long until Omicron is added to SNPsig®. This will save on expensive and time-consuming full genomic sequencing to verify all positive Omicron suspected cases. So, expect and RNS for that too at some point soon.

Back to Porky’s sentiment: I’m looking forward to the action this week. Things are looking very positive – the sun is out, and we can see the mountain glistening ahead, looming large. Are you rea

As RBMInvest pointed out earlier on this thread - over 9m shares traded in France (9.2m in fact).

For those less experienced in investing, this is really significant.

9.2 m is 13% of the 70.6m shares in existence. Which means that although a lot of people were buying, a lot of shares were being sold too. Why is this so important? Huge rises on small volume can quickly drop back, whereas those that wanted to sell were already doing so yesterday.

We all know how ridiculously priced the company was. As the SP kept dropping, I piled in more and more funds to the point of emptying my sock draw and using the children's pocked money to buy the shares, and then, it still went down further! At 2.20 I had nothing left to put in and was using my overdraft to survive - not an ideal situation. Especially with the tax return deadline coming up in January. I should have put some of the profit made last year aside to pay the tax man but, obviously, put it in here instead. I had become what is called a distressed investor - this has not happened to me before. But who could have predicted literally eight straight months of downward pressure with little respite? With yesterday's rise I was able to release 15% of my holding (a small amount of which I bought straight back in a different account, as I had not used this year's ISA allowance).

So, the point I'm making is that, if one has a significant holding, it is not always easy to sell a portion of one's shares in a small cap without it affecting the SP of the remaining holding. In fact, even after breaking it into smaller chunks, one of my sales was rejected three times before finally going through, an that's with yesterday's buying pressure.

So, the volume traded yesterday allowed a lot of people who needed to sell a apart of or all of their holding, for whatever reasons, to do so. This puts us in a very strong position going forward, as basically, those who wanted to get out are already out and 13% of the stock is in new hands. Having just bought they are not going to want to sell. This is why we are now having investors on this board predicting much higher figures after already considerable rises.

As I said yesterday, slow and steady usually wins the race but this is still undervalued at the current price, so more news (more of our tests added to the CDTA list, DHSC resolution, US sales news, a large contract, R&D progress on the 10 minute PCR... the list is endless) could easily precipitate further large rises and propel us to where we should long have been.

Well done to all the LTH on this board who have stuck with it. I, for one, have more of a spring in my step as we look forward to the continued ascent. Onwards and upwards!

GLA