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Another 300k traded since I posted a few moments ago - who said no ii ?

@ johnpohn

I was expecting a retrace, as I said earlier, due to the speed of the rise. But for those looking at the the SP action over the last hour, it looks like nothing has been happening.
Far from it - volume was slowing but it's just broken the 5m in France now. That's really important; it means we have a lot of action going on fresh blood in the game. They've just bought, so why would they sell?
As sharehunter3 would say - those sellers have already just sold to the lucky buyers ;-)

@Porky

5 Euros will be the big psychological barrier to get over first - currently at 4.71 in France

I expect a little retracing at some point, as this is rising so fast - agree it has been ridiculously priced for so long, we have a lot of catching up to do. I prefer slow and steady for a long term improvement in SP, but happy to climb the rockface if I have to! :)

As a marketing tool - I meant to add:

https://twitter.com/NovacytGroup/status/1464128917359497216

We have brilliant scientists who have created a vast range of tests. They can make a test to detect pretty much anything containing DNA. They have been doing this for years, mainly for research purposes and supplied them to research labs/clinics across the world. What we haven’t been able to do is scale this up and market it properly, we just couldn’t afford it. Do you know how much it costs to ship a Versalab trailer and all this exhibition kit across the world, let alone pay for a huge booth at the Dubai World Trade Centre?
But now we have money in the bank and a CEO with marketing in his blood; we were able to exhibit at:
AidEx – Brussels
MEDICA 2021 - Duesseldorf
ArabLab21 – Dubai
LabInnovations - Birmingham
Ans that’s just in November!
Not only have we a huge range of Covid and non-covid products, but we are also cornering the POC market with Promate technology (no cabinet, only one pipette step -transferable to the rest of our product range) and Versalab/ Versalab-Portable using our brilliant little Q 16/ Q32 machines (MyGo/MyGoPro – razers!).
The £2m loss of revenues we mentioned in the RNS is a drop in the ocean. Our FY revenues were predicted to be £100m, but we’re going to blast that! Oh, and wait until the dispute is resolved, we can add tens of millions back to our bottom line – we’ll be laughing!

Now that would be an RNS aimed at Investors and I’m sure we’ll get some of that, and more, soon. DA seems to know which side his bread is buttered and IMO he has his priorities right – make hay whilst the sun shines.
What has pleased me most about the trading action today, though, apart from the initial SP rise, is that we have had huge volume at a steady price. This means we have lost a lot of traders who were holding shares that they had bought cheaply a couple of weeks ago and lost a lot of longer-term holders desperate to get out. This now makes an excellent platform for the next step up.
For those invested last year – do you remember the price prediction for Christmas? Let’s not go there but, IMO this is definitely still a multibillion-pound company in the making. It just takes time.

Get you kit ready for the long climb ahead!

All IMO, DYOR, GLA all LTHs

We are a top-class company making quality tests. We were first to market. We have FDA, UNICEF and WHO approval. We have the dogs b*ll*cks surveillance system in place which ensures our tests cover all known variants.
The CTDA has royally c*cked this up. This delay in approval was costing us £3m and this has now reduced to £2m with the inclusion of Genesig.
IMO this RNS was clearly there for a reason – as I’ve said before, this was not aimed at the investing market (the change here is a mere 1% of annual revenue) but at UK Gov, to make a future claim for the lost revenue and to ensure the remaining eight products are approved post-haste.
It was also put out as a marketing tool. We are the best at what we do and have it all covered.

Agree, completely oversold. It was already cheap at 290 but this morning's price was an absolute bargain for anyone who managed to get in. Far more momentum traders than there used to be; this exacerbates any movement in whichever direction. This will recover in time.

@ Surfie, fully understand about what you mean regarding false dawns and rockets - many of us have wrongly called the bottom.

A pendulum swings two ways, however.

There has been and sustained and inexplicable drop form the 3.50-4.00 mark - the only reason can be put down to continued downward momentum (FOMO in reverse). At some point it had to stop and, as SP approached cash, we hit the buffers. Everything including the pips has been squeezed from the lemon!

Time to swing the other way in my opinion - but let's see.

also more visibility - imagine how frustrating it must have been for Novacyt. All these fantastic new products and no way of showing them. I bet they're glad Covid restrictions have lifted in away. Birmingham, Dusseldorf, Dubai - all in a matter of days.

Is the train finally leaving the station? - time to get aboard before the doors slam!

All that most people see is a swan sitting still on the water - look below the surface and we can see a lot of work going on to maintain it's position against the fast moving current. Once in calmer waters, progress will really begin.

@risehall, I completely agree, this is down to UK Gov and DHSC not Novacyt.
The DHSC could have done three things:

1. Given Novacyt a contract to embed our Q machines in all NHS hospitals and followed through so that we had an enhanced diagnostics provision at POC across the UK.
2. Awarded a contract for similar provision to another company.
3. Awarded a contract as in pt1 above, but then change their minds halfway through the procurement process and cancel the order.

We were obviously expecting 1 but got 3. The significance is that the DHSC has royally c*cked up. Within the realms of the law, they cannot simply do this, thinking that the Covid panic is over, in order to save money. They will not – far from it. They will still need to pay, possibly more, and worse still, they will not even get the product.
We have incurred significant costs in preparation for scaling up with our suppliers and manufacturing partners/sub-contractors, procuring materials and building inventory. The DHCS is now liable for the value of the contract plus these additional costs. However, with the GLP on their case, how would it look if the DHSC were seen to be paying for goods not received? The general public would not understand the intricacies of the issues. All they would see is headlines about the UK Gov (tax payer) paying for tests that they didn’t receive. This all feeds into the current sleaze and corruption narrative.
So, whilst we are not in the same boat as ABX and others specifically named in the JR, I cannot see how we can possibly resolve this until the review has blown over.

That is why we must wait.

Does this mean that the SP will not rise until then? Who knows? Other news may drop before then acting as a catalyst; there is so much pending in the pipeline, from strategy updates to product news. Buying pressure may build well before the DHSC resolution in anticipation, as the mCap is now so close to cash value; any risk is vanishingly small.
Part of our difficulty is that we have so many PI invested, many of whom had no intention of being here for anywhere near as long as this. They are stuck in a value trap. Some will simply have been impatient and sold already, taking a loss, others desperately need the cash and others will be fearful, due to the seemingly relentless drip, drip of the SP. With so many distressed sellers, it is easy to see why the sharks are circling. It also explains why any small rise is sold into.

ii are beginning to see value here and eventually something will cause this to break out. Huge buying pressure will supersede this downward trickle. Patience is the key. It is hard to remain sanguine but, as I have suggested before, constantly being at the screen and monitoring hour by hour or minute by minute fluctuations in SP is not healthy.
You’ve heard it from Warren Buffett before but worth reminding:

“The Stock Market is designed to transfer money from the Active to the Patient.”

I’m off down the garden.

JET2 appears to have sound management and dealt well with the pandemic, maintaining it's reputation with customers. I think it would be a solid long term investment, but over the shorter period, I really couldn't tell you which way this will go and it may see a further down turn - who knows? (too much is sentiment driven atm), so have decided to put my money elsewhere for the time being. May return if I feel it is completely undervalued again - i.e dips below £10; I appreciate this may never happen.

GLA

Correction: should read 'can't say so'

Also, with respect to the JR, I meant to say, we don't want to seen to be blowing our trumpet about how the company, and especially as share holders, we have profited. It's a similar theme, once blown over, they can let this go.

@Investor Steve - thank you for sharing the article.

The narrative seems compelling and accurate but the question has to be asked, how much of this is deliberate, especially regarding the dispute and the regulatory bodies failing to meet deadlines.

Whilst the dispute, which may or may not be tied in with the judicial review (highly likelyIMO), is in progress it is my opinion, and I've argued before, that they want to openly present the most negative possible position/impact of contract termination. Likewise, with regulatory delays, they may want show how negatively it has impacted the company, if they are to make a claim against UK Gov.

Maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree but, with exception of possibly the chair, these look like clever people, so I doubt they could be that incompetent, it has to be deliberate- but obviously, they can say so. (Disclaimer: I'm not saying the chair is not clever, just that IMO, he does not give that impression!)

Let's hope it has been done for the above reasons and once resolved, they can let the band go. It has been stretched so far that once the good news does come, a sudden and significant correction is inevitable.

As always, IMO only - not investment advice, please DYOR

GLA LTH

@Wilson and Larry thanks for the replies and completely understand. Let's let the company announce it when it's ready - all in good time.

@Poidster- again, appreciate the post.

What is clear to me is what a master stroke the purchase of IT-IS was. Before Covid, we just made tests (very good tests, and lots of them, and often first to market), but then we acquired the ability to sell the machines to test them on.

Not just any machines, but smart little devices that are more portable than anyone else's (bar single tests).

This is vertical integration.

Now we are filling in the gaps in the work flow process, with CoPrep being another superb addition, so that we control all the steps and information flow, and the process is seamless. From start to finish, a quick, efficient, quality operation.

This is then all bundled up into Versalab, so that you can take the best work flow in diagnostics in the world and set it up anywhere, for anyone.

TESCO: Do you want your burger tested?
Sewage Works: Do you want your river water tested? (I bet the open water swimmers do!)
Farmer: Do you want your pigs tested?
Amazon: Do you want your employees tested.

You get my drift and that's without going onto the hundreds of millions of pounds to be poured into Community Test Centres.

The future is more and more testing - localised testing. Novacyt has the future covered.

GLA and be patient- multibillion company in the making, takes time.
And, yes, £15 SP still very much on the cards, or I wouldn't be here.

IMO, this is not investment advice, DYOR

@Wilson - what I mean is, did you actually see it moving?

@Larry, what makes you think there will be a delay ? - I saw you mention a possible delay on Twitter too.

@Wilson- was this a working machine or just a prototype cabinet?

One thing I noticed on the marketing is that the CoPrep, whether used with Q16, Q32 or other devices, is for PROmate.

Why go to all this trouble and expense to create a machine for PROmate if PROmate is only going to be used for Covid.? This is clearly aimed at a postcovid expansion of the PROmate range.

POC (or point of use) is the future of diagnostics in many possible areas (from medical and veterinary to health screening, food testing or monitoring of the environment) and Novacyt will there at the forefront!

Ok thanks, Kaeren for getting back. I thought the link to his post could be simply be posted, but appreciate it might not work like that or that there may be other repercussions. I have only joined twitter so that I can better view the links people post here and haven't really fathomed it, yet! Truth will always out in the end whichever way.

*know

Merci, Larry and Pierrick

We just need twitter covered now - who has a good feed/following?

Porky are you there? Anyone else - Kaeren you might no the best route for this positivity boost/reminder.