Member Info for HillSeeker

Merci, pmjh

We just need some one to proof the French translation and post in France.

Think it's time for those trolls to close their Shorts!

1) Des centaines de machines Q déjà déployées sur le marché britannique du NHS, d'autres pays existent, donc au total, il y en a beaucoup plus.
2) Ces machines Q se sont avérées à la fois utilisables, efficaces et précises.
3) Cette instrumentation est désormais bien implantée, embarquée et joue désormais un rôle précieux dans la lutte contre le Covid. Les laboratoires avec lesquels je suis en contact l'utilisent pour les patients atteints de DEA.
4) Compte tenu de l'étendue du catalogue de tests Novacyt, les laboratoires étudient déjà comment ils peuvent utiliser ces instruments, voire en acheter davantage.
5) Novacyt s'engage auprès de sa base d'utilisateurs pour découvrir comment ils peuvent aider dans d'autres domaines, qui sont nombreux.
6) Les instruments Q sont désormais une passerelle pour changer la méthode de livraison des diagnostics, au lieu de tests de laboratoire centralisés, ils peuvent désormais être utilisés de manière fiable comme test au point de service.
7) CoPrep rend cela encore plus facile et supprime les erreurs de l'utilisateur.
8) Novacyt est de loin le leader dans ce nouveau domaine du diagnostic.
9) Leur mission va bien au-delà des maladies infectieuses humaines, du diagnostic plus rapide du cancer, des tests sur les animaux, des tests environnementaux, des industries de production alimentaire, honnêtement la liste est longue
10) Ils ont un flux de revenus très sain de Promate qui se poursuivra, à mon humble avis pendant AU MOINS encore 2 ans dans le monde
11) Ils sont désormais intégrés au marché britannique du NHS, ils peuvent tirer parti de cette plate-forme pour vendre une plus grande variété de tests sur ce marché et demandent à leurs utilisateurs de contribuer à façonner ce développement.
12) C'est très tôt, des erreurs ont été commises mais cela n'a jamais rien à voir avec la R&D, c'est ce qu'ils font le mieux.

The fight back begins - great post thanks Poidster

@Larry

Any chance of getting this translated and put on the French board, si vous plait?

Indeed, ChrisTopher, when this gets resolved - whether the RNS lands outside of or within trading hours, it won't be a gentle rise for people to step on board. The MM will just knock this up a few quid, depending on the level of compensation; it could easily double over night.

IMO and, I must stress, this is just an opinion, the last RNS (CDTA) and RNS regarding accounting treatment of the DHSC dispute are very deliberately negative. They have had an inevitable knock down effect on the SP in the short to medium term but, I believe, have been done in the long-term interest of the company and hence will, in the end, support longer-term shareholder value.

These RNS have not been targeted at shareholders but are formal markers/records. The latest, which may be trying to garner media attention too, is simply setting a record of the material costs to the company that the CTDA incompetence is having. The RNS regarding the dispute is, again, meant to show the maximum negative impact as part of the ongoing negotiations. It is as formal a recognition of the impact of the contract termination as possibly can be provided to support their stance.
So, yes, these two pieces of information will have a negative impact on the SP in the medium-term, but this is immaterial to the longer-term health of the company. All that matters is that the dispute is resolved on favourable terms to us and that this includes the maximum level of compensation possible. So, the worse the figures look, the better the compensation, and the same goes for the CTDA.

Clearly, traders will feed on this and, though I was expecting a little volatility following yesterday’s announcement, I was a little taken back by the army of trolls suddenly amassed on the board and elsewhere ready to knock this in a concerted attack for whosoever’s purposes.

Whilst no one wants to see their share value eroded day by day, we have to keep looking at the fundamentals. The current SP of 238p puts the market capitalisation at £167m. We have in the region of 100m cash in bank (not counting tax rebates, a windfall from a resolution etc), so this values the company net at 67m? Does this sound right to any of you? I’m not sure I can comprehend how ridiculous this figure appears to me but, put it this way. The value of tax rebates and dispute resolution could easily be more than this. That means, with favourable news, one could be buying the company for less than it holds in cash! Even with no revenues from a resolution, £67m is cheap. Even if revenues halve next year and again the year after, it is still ridiculously cheap.

However, I cannot see DA doing anything to support the SP until the dipste is resolved. As I’ve said before, I doubt this will happen until the new year. So, why not sell and come back in later? Because this is only my best guess regarding timing, good news could come at any time. So, like HarChris, I am willing to suffer further falls knowing that at any point this could see a huge rerate and positive bounce. I too could be wrong, but that’s the risk of investing if one wants to see potential, multiple gains.

GL to all LTH

Couldn't agree more - a truly solid performance and ahead of the curve in terms of futures:

"the Group is targeting technologies, products and solutions aligned to two key trends that will transform our industry over the long term: sustainability and the industrialisation of construction processes

Brick slips = non-combustible, eco-friendly cladding

What's not to like?

Wish I had added more - need to release some funds. This is going only one way over the medium to long term. A solid invest for those happy to wait.

All IMO - please don't take this as investment advice, DYOR

Is this uptick a huge sigh of relief that no massive carbon tax is being levied on airlines by Rishi Sunak?

Seems to me, this RNS is for the media's attention. Why else notify of a mere £3m in revenue at the most?

@ValJu

I agree, it would be great to hear something; even just a quick 'hello' would be nice.

Ref your fish/pond metaphor, however, would it not be better to think of DA as a beaver or otter?

Whereas a fish can do little about the size of pond in which it finds itself, these ingenious and industrious creatures have the ability to expand there habitat manyfold - allowing them to catch many more fish!

@ Kaeren, Wilson, DRB and one or two others (you know who you are) - thank you for the positive and informative posts. And thank you to the readers who have given them the recommends - it makes it so much easier to scan through the numerous other posts and find the relevant information.

DRB - with regard your 22:54 post last night, you have reaffirmed some interesting points for potential investors. One point I would like to see taken further is that of marketing. You said:

" Let's remember that we are not business to consumer and won't be advertising on the TV or radio. "

But we are business to business, and Novacyt of old was just selling to one or two types of business, those that traditionally required diagnostics - e.g. medical, veterinary, food.

So, I would like to see them break away from their previous marketing strategy and advertise more broadly in the FT and possibly some of the other broadsheets (e.g. telegraph business section). Versalab/Promate should not be targeted just at pharmacy/medical/diagnostics industries but all SME and corporations. We need to be spinning the narrative that "to have a healthy business, one needs healthy employees".

Regular health screening is the new and responsible thing to be doing as part of a broad package of employee support and welfare measures. This would contribute towards their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) strategies (potentially bringing in increasing investment too, with so many funds putting ESG targets higher on their agenda).

As well as maintaining and expanding into traditional B2B avenues, I hope DA's new marketing strategy encompasses this sort of out-of-the-box/blue-sky strategic thinking in order to make the most of the new developments in POC.

There are many B2B enterprises that are household names and NYCT should be one of them.

*****

Hoping for a positive week and, fingers crossed, some news - but remember that every week that passes without any news is a week closer to the resolution of DHSC and is also another two million pounds of revenue in the bank! So, not entirely a wasted week - this should, with any luck, start to tick up nicely.

GLA

@Poidster
agreed, and no insinuation made. There's no doubt that parts of the management/board were not prepared or skilled for the rapid scale up and the LTIP was certainly not fit for purpose. But, overall, they have done fantastically to be first to market and be selling millions. I've no doubt that their technology is where the future of diagnostics is going to be and, whilst phase two didn't happen as expected, - as you say, there will be other opportunities/ways this can and will develop...

@ Sir_digby

That's because the review is not just about ABDX - the Good Law project are taking aim at the whole of Operation Moonshot.

https://goodlawproject.org/case/operation-moonshot/

The DHSC contract is part of this and, although it may have nothing to do with the outcome - they may not want to settle before then. I can imagine that Headlines along the lines of "DHSC settles to pay millions for goods not received" would not play well for UK Gov whilst the review is ongoing even if it is for a completely different company.

sorry previous post cut off mid-sentence:

My initial target remains as above, but I will reassess when it gets there, as I estimate we are in the second year of a five- or six-year strategy.

IMO, DYOR, GLA

@Poidster - ref your Q last night:
It is certainly odd that the SP has been so inexplicably low for such a long period, however, I doubt there is an orchestrated move to supress the SP (most reasons given would be illegal). Uncertainty, sentiment & downward momentum has led us here and that has been compounded by apparent BoD disinterest.

There are boardroom issues we are not (and possibly will never be) aware of, but the main problem for us in the short term, as investors, is that management’s time and energy is simply focused on growing the company and selling its products. Putting its foot firmly on the gas and focusing on earnings whilst the currently high case rates exist is, however, sensible. The SP will right itself in the long term and the strategy, after all, is to provide long-term shareholder value.

This does, however, leave us open to low-ball offers. But these would be just that. No ii have any large stakes, when they need to gain 50% plus shares. Whichever way they tried would result in a much higher SP. They need most SH to vote ‘yes’ to any offer. Institutional investors may be happy with lower marginal gains, but with none, they are reliant purely on PI votes. Some PI, who bought in recently at below £3, may also be happy with £4 but my guess is that these are low in numbers and nowhere near 50%.

The majority of investors come in one of two camps.
1. They bought at levels similar to these 18 months ago. They have held on through thick and thin (they could have sold at £12 but didn’t) and are certainly not going to accept anything less than double figures.
2. They bought in at, much higher levels than the current SP and are held in a value trap. Some of these may want out, and would be happy to accept a lower offer of say £6 to £7, but this will depend on their entry price and the majority, I would imagine, would want more than they paid.

Of course, you can secure votes by buying up shares. But, as per other posters, the limit is 30% before a vote is forced. You saw what happened last Friday with a few hundred thousand shares changing hands. Even if you wanted 10%, that’s 7m shares needed. The price would skyrocket.

So, it’s great to speculate about a takeover but, this should be only for positive reasons. If someone wants Novacyt Group, they are going to have to pay for it, and I would stick to £15 a share as where they would end up having to go to get these in the short to medium term. They may need to possibly pay a lot more longer-term if the strategy goes according to plan.
To me, this is a pure waiting game now until significant announcements are made. I’m not expecting the DHSC to be resolved before the Good Law project reports at the end of the year, if it comes earlier, that’s a bonus. But I am hoping to hear of further R&D updates and product launches before then.

My initial target remains as above, but I will reassess when it gets there, as I estimate we are in the second year of a five- or six-

Well if anyone is going to add to their holding, now's the time to do it. Vulcan have increased form 7.46% to 8.53%, so wouldn't read too much into that. Sentiment has pushed this down for little reason and anything around £2 has got to be cheap. I bought back in at 199 last week.

The reasons given for the drop to me seem week or unfounded:

HGV issues:
Our kilns are located around the country close to pits, minimising transportation. What's the alternative? Import bricks and concrete products?

Gas prices:
Yes, that has to be a major cost, but surely passed onto the customer. What brick manufacture has an alternative? Plus we are building new factory that is Eco - first net zero bricks to roll of in a couple of years.

Inflation/Downturn:
Again, there could be some stagflation on the horizon, but housing shortage remains plus infrastructure projects (HS2? - Ibs make concrete sleepers) set to continue. Leveling up agenda likely to see other infrastructure and easier access to housing although review of planning has had some hiccups.

I really don't see much downside risk here - may drop as low as 185/190 with winter scare stories but let's see, upside could easily head beyond 350 towards the £4 mark in the year ahead once the covid/flu resurgence wains .

All IMO, DYOR

At last the turning point

We're all going up to Sunshine Mountain!

@InvestorSteve - that may, or may not be the case. I didn't think Promate was available until Feb 2021, I could be mistaken. And it still does not explain the reason for the initial dispute and non-payment of the Q4 2020 invoice. So rather than give a clear steer, I feel the waters remain muddy on this and we'll just have to wait and see.

Plenty of other positives to go on though, not least Covid revenues. As Kaeren pointed out earlier, the company's sentiment regarding ongoing Covid revenues seems to have strengthened. Watching the news just now and the daily infection rate approaching 50k, plus the elderly and vulnerable on their third vaccination, I can see why. Covid testing will be required for some time to come, especially in hospitals and care homes. Unfortunately, I think we'll be battling this wreched disease in one form or another for many years to come. Even as medication improves and morbidity and mortality rates decline, tests in many forms will be required for many years to come.

With so much uncertainty, I can see why they would be reluctant to put a figure on 2022 revenues at this stage, but I can envisage this being at least of a similar order to the current year.

Or are we saying, we have been barking up the wrong tree and it was tests for HT labs that were subsequently mothballed? It was nothing to do do with Pillar 1 testing - but all to do with Pillar 2

@MonkeyFish & Wilson

I understood this too. GeneSig is not what is left over. However, I'm no sure how much of a nudge and wink this is. It rules out GeneSig but it does not explain what the stock write-down (for which read 'dispute') was for. Clearly, it relates to the pre-Promate period, and they are using Promate happily anyway now, so that can be ruled out too. So it is Exsig or Q machines or both, but how does this help? Q machines would be better in that they don't have an expiry, but not so good in terms of we want the NHS to have as many of these machines as possible. It's no good having them stuck in our warehouse. Equally, a pile of ExSig or the assay needed for it is just going to expire - hence the write-down.

I cannot see the positive in this revelation. Am I missing something?

With no RNS this morning, I was not expecting any great revelations, but I must admit I was a little disappointed with the Q&A; an opportunity squandered? It was literally 15 minutes (excluding translations) and many of the questions were simply a repeat of those raised in the presentation meeting. They have said unanswered Qs may be put on the website, but I shan't be holding my breath as they seem to want to keep all cards close to their chest. We are none the wiser regarding the number of Q machines already out there. The importance of this is was underscored by their admission that POC is going to be where the future of this company is. How many have they sold to the NHS, to the private sector and how many are still in stock?

On a positive, it does look like they have genuinely cleared the decks for the new man. If this is the case, with all the bad news already out of the way, there can literally be very little downside remaining. Gazman's earlier post (regarding market confusion of risk v uncertainty 9:53) becomes even more relevant.

Uncertainty may remain (they are unable to give even provisional figures for 2022) but as to risk, this appears to be vanishingly small, with MCAP approaching cash, tax rebates due, on top of the potential unpaid bills... Will they make money next year? Of course. Will they have even more cash in bank? Of course. Will they grow in the Americas and in Europe with a larger direct sales team, their new contacts and larger marketing spend? Of course. Will they continue to produce market leading, cutting edge products with with their huge expertise and larger R&D budget?

There is so little risk compared to huge upsides at these prices.

At some point in the run up to the AGM, I was expecting a huge bounce from the bottom with some news or another acting as a catalyst, but instead we may just see a slow gradual climb out of here to a far more reasonable valuation as they just keep making money week by week, month on month.

Gradually, sentiment will surely return.

IMO, DYOR, GLA

@B2HS2L good question- and this is precisely what I have asked for my AGM q.

I want to know how many Q machines have been sold since the pandemic started. How many of these are in the NHS, how many are elsewhere and how many are held in stock. I phrased this in a way to help clear up the intra- depart trade figures. There is a near £6m discrepancy between IT-IS £1.5m geographical (i.e. direct sales) and their 7.4m revenues.