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It's very difficult to know why the share price does what it does on certain days. Who would be selling when things are looking so positive? Most likely there was some profit taking yesterday after such a strong rise from 140, but possibly some opportunists also jumping on the bandwagon to short the share - who knows?

The key for us is to keep looking at the fundamentals. We know we are developing a strong post covid strategy with some super IP that will work across our entire PCR product range. We are continually improving our equipment too. But we do not want to see our cash pile depleted whilst we make the transition. We need to stay on target with our covid sales. The best indicator that this is happening is the CFO buy last week.

From all the news, it is evident that Covid is back on he rise here and in many other countries, but who is actually using our tests? I believe our biggest market at the moment will be the private sector and overseas. I have tried to find a definitive list of countries still requiring PCR for travel/entry, but perhaps others will have more success. The advice is to look at individual countries.

What I did find was most countries still require some form of testing (I.e. no change from previous and not likely to change in current circumstances- the UK appears to be the only country easing its remaining restrictions). This is what I found on Europe alone:

"Different European countries have different rules regarding the type of testing, not all authorities accept antibody tests.

PCR tests for travelling to Europe are the most widely accepted given their increased sensitivity and ability to pick up even small amounts of the virus.

Travellers who do need a negative COVID-19 result to enter a European destination need to arrange a test no more than 3 days before departure.

In general, individuals will need to pay to have a Covid test for international travel to Europe at a private clinic. However, some countries, like France, will provide free PCR tests to tourists."

So pretty much business as usual then! Although Novacyt has predicted that covid tests sales will reduce by 50% this year, half of a shed load of money is still a lot of dosh and easily allows us to continue to build revenues and further increase our cash pile until it's needed.

So, I'm sanguine about the daily SP fluctuations. As travel resumes, more tests, not fewer, are required and we continue to build the reserves required to develop and build out our strategy to become a world leader in PoC diagnostics and global surveillance.

Looking forward to what positive news will drop next.

GLA

#patienceisavirtue

@beechnot - and they loose out as the re-rate continues

Talk of popping is, in my view, a little misleading.

We should view this more as a ball that has had the air sucked out of it (as if for packaging purposes).

It has now had a couple of pumps of air put back in. It is still nowhere near the shape it is meant to be, let alone anywhere close to being overinflated.

We are so materially undervalued due to a most unusual set of circumstances, from trade secrets causing news blackouts to the current conflict, all on top of an epic downwardspiral. With everything this bb has already gleaned on the grapevine, we should be trading at at least double the current SP - £5-£6 would IMO be fair value and then much higher when dispute resolved and he strategy begins to play out.

This is a £1bn company in the making for those with sufficient patience. It could be two to three years before we see that realisation, but worth the wait for that sort of gain.

IMO only - please DYOR

Investors on this bb have been focusing on what the CFO doesn't know (e.g. dispute resolution etc., in order to be sllowed to to buy shares).

What hasn't been talked about is the more obvious - what he does know.

He's not going to be buying shares if he knew of anything that when released would cause a drop.

This basically removes all known (last time he didn't know UK Gov was going to shift us) downside risk.

So we can assume, for example, that we are hitting those sales predictions.

Just keep holding - more of the pick'n' mix of news to come

This is brilliant. A multibillion-pound (we are talking £230bn) company is seriously selling our equipment, no longer just trying a few out for size.

Wait until our next generation Promate™ is ready and they’ll be selling our tests too no doubt. As posted before:

• multiple gene targets
• room temp shipment
• cross portfolio product (including both viruses and bacteria)

That last point means all this could be applied to all their other hundreds of PCR tests in their portfolio, from veterinary science to water testing.

- that's what we mean by valuable IP

…and don’t forget the 10-minute target for the new PCR test they are working on. Even if they only get halfway to achieving this, it will blow the competition out of the water.

The news is spreading and it’s looking good for the next step up – just waiting for the catalyst to trigger the rise. There’s a pick ‘n’ mix from which to choose, so just hold on and news will come…

GLA

@Harchris - I know what you mean regarding the recurring cycle and said brigade coming out of the woodwork, but I'm not sure it will play out like that this time.

As Kaeren says, there's no doubt the Biosynex are buying (and are very likely to have more by now) - plus I don't think we should underestimate the significance of the pics seen over the weekend with the Tata brand on our beautiful marshmallows (Q32).

Tata group is estimated to be worth well over 23 trillion Indian rupees (at £1 = 100Rs, that's still £230 billion)!

Tata are just coming into diagnostics. They don't have their own R&D or kit. They are selling our equipment as if it were there own invention. Plus whose tests are they going to be selling? They don't have any of their own of those either - rival tests would, of course, run on our machines, and the run times suggest they may not be our tests, but with or without tests this is huge. They are not going to be buying just 5 machines, that's for sure. They will either buy, or produce under licence, hundreds if not thousands.

Plus we are now getting closer to April and the grand reveal.

My speculation would be that pressure on the SP is going to quickly build as all this comes together. The window of opportunity for Biosynex, or anyone else, to buy this at under £2 (and possibly under£3) will rapidly vanish.

(All IMO, of course.)

#finallyturning?

This is clearly speculation on my part. But if this is indeed the case ( I see no other plausible explanation), with the most risk averse (fearful) already removed, with Biosynex continuing to build, with the BoD incentive to raise the SP and withthe more speculative investors returning in the run up to the information release, there could be one hell of a storm brewing come April.

GLA

I share your concerns Bloodshot. The behaviour of this share is completely at odds with anything I've ever experienced before. We know all the indicators show this share is undervalued by a long way. So much so that many experienced investors on here have wrongly called the bottom several times, and at many points well above where we are now. I'm not ashamed to admit I bought more myself at way above my original entry point as I felt the drop at the time had been overdone.

We now learn that Biosynex has continued to accumulate around four million shares and the SP has still refused to budge. How is that possible? Normal supply and demand dictates that if you have more buyers than sellers the price will go up to a point where more holders will become sellers. So how can this irrational price action be explained? They have had to buy the shares from someone. I can only come up with the following:

1. They have bought the shares by private agreement from another large holder. We have been through this before. The only other large holder would be Vatel. They would be duty bound to declare their reduction but some are arguing that the penalties for not doing so are insufficiently onerous for them to be concerned . I'm not too convinced that's the case and, why would they want to sell at these ridiculous levels having held the shares so long?

2. It seems counterintuitive, but the only other explanation is that they have used the only other weapons they have at their disposal: Fear and PI impatience. Instead of raising the price to find more buyers, they do the opposite. Drop the price further and pay people to subtly spread angst and disinformation on boards such as this. (Which explains those posters who are eternally pessimistic, have loads of shares but think it's going lower and pretend they are naive and know nothing one minute and then suddenly become financially astute the next.)

Could this second point really work sufficiently well to gain 4m shares without raising the SP? Sure, a few investors will be impatient and want their money back and a few more will be nervous enough to want to cut their losses, but 4m shares, really?

The unique circumstances may have aided this. As we know we have a very unusual make up of share holders with over 90% held byPI. And many of these came into the market early pandemic. They were not the kind who want a long term 5% year on hear return. These were highly speculative investors willing to accept large risk for potentially very lucrative returns. Whether one believes the BoD are complicit or not, the lack of communication (and perhaps the "nothing happening here until April" statement in particular) has seen some investors take a break. Not only has the Ukraine crisis added to the fear of further falls but many may have seen opportunitiesy in the crisis and simply sold in order to make quicker gains by buying commodities such as oil.

Too right Kaeren - it beggars belief that anyone would have sold after the first TR1 let alone the LTIP announcement.

Investor fear and impatience are the only two things they have to play on - they've been doing both beautifully to the detriment of us still holding (divide and rule - pick a few PI off at a time - take out stop-losses if you need to)

Two false starts - third time lucky!?

One returning ship at a cost of £10m in revenue (most of which will come back another to us another day) saw a drop of 70p in SP. With 140m odd shares in circulation that's £100m drop in mcap.
This was completely oversold already on Friday
- of course, if there is a complete escalation of Ukraine conflict into WWIII and all shipping is stopped then that kind of drop would be justified.
Talk about jumpy markets!

@CR888 - we are weathering a storm and reputation is everything. Trust takes years to build and is so quickly destroyed. They have made a costly decision to reimburse, but IMO in the long run the right one.

You have to make the calculation as an investor - is this turmoil going to sink us? If not we will come out of this stronger. I see real value here - it has been reiterated many times on this bb that we are primarily insurance - but the cruise and travel can either be a boost or a drag.

Catching a falling knife is always a brave thing to do and I accept this could go possible further down to 12p (180) or even 11p (165) but that would require further horrendous news of an apocalyptic nature. For the time being this could be the bottom and a real bargain for those looking for value stocks and some easy rich pickings.

IMO only - please DYOR - the bounce I'm expecting may not transpire; GLA

I've just bough back in - 211 is about 14p in old money. Yes, we may have had a set back due to covid bureaucracy in countries that have failed to catch up, and the global outlook is no looking terrific, but we are priced as if all cruising is to stop again (i.e. mid pandemic price). [And if you are thinking of the worst possible scenario under this pg-headed dictator - then where better to be than on a small cruise ship in the middle of the Atlantic!]

For those who don't understand the French, it says:

"Please would you give me your shares at these ridiculous prices."

Thanks, Chris - I agree DA is only just starting out and is taking a sensible and measured approach.

I too was disappointed with H2 compared to H1 but, without the breakdown, it's hard to see where the drop was. The CDTA restrictions, on top of new variants, certainly wouldn't have helped plus change of CEO at a critical time will all have been a distraction. A simple change, like one of the major German buyers switching to a cheaper rival or LFTs even, would alone account for such a drop however.

Sorry but I have to disagree with you and Chris on this one, Wilson.

2021 was about seizing the covid opportunity that presented itself and not focusing on non-covid sales.

Considering we were right royally stitched up by the UK Gov at the beginningof the year, we did extremely well to pivot away from the British state sector and instead gain traction overseas and in the private market to still bring in significant revenue - far higher than could have been achieved in non-covid sales. Especially as no one was focused on non-covid tests during the pandemic.

So they did the right thing. They were agile and built a stock pile of cash.

They are rightly taking their time to now look at where they are best focusing their time and money. For what unmet and marketable need should they create tests ? They are likely to want yto consult with their private partners who will no doubt also want yo pivot into new point of care and near patient opportunities. They have likely made significant progress on this already but cannot tel us yet; would you be keen to tell the competition about potentially lucrative, unmet needs you have identified before fully developing and protecting your own tests?

And in the meantime, it looks like they have been making excellent progress on further developments to heir ProMate technologies, which will be transferable to their vast non-covid range of tests, whether they be for bacterial or viral infections. It looks like they are now already, or very soon to be, able to target multiple genes and overcoming the need to transport and store the tests below freezing. This had to be a major barrier to sales, no matter how easy they are to use - especially in any overseas remote locations where our Q machines were ideally suited.

Plus, we have been working on reducing the test times from 80 minutes to a fraction of this - 10 minutes was the target they let slip.isSo, I wouldn't really say thet've been standing around scratching their armpits - far from it; this is a pioneering company that has up to now been very agile and will be leading away to the future of POC diagnostics.

A year in pharma is nothing- they have been working at incredible speed - for us the patience is understandbly wearing thin due to the catastrophic drop in SP and lack of information. IMO things will look a little different, however, come the summer - if we can wait that long!

GLA

@mgmidget; indeed I’ve seen the Novacyt tweet.

Three key take aways from that:

1. Multiple gene targets (I believe that’s different to multiplex tests, which use several wells for each test, so many more tests can be done at one time with this new tech)
2. room temp shipment (currently ProMate™ needs to be shipped frozen)
3. cross portfolio product (including both viruses and bacteria) – i.e. can be transferred to our other 5-600 tests

Plus, as Kaeren is saying, we have the machine/test development that Gemma Stokes accidently let slip on video.
There’s some major R&D development happening behind the scenes here – exciting times.

@HarChris – nice post! – I agree this is a long-term investment and will take time to grow to MidCap multibillion pound company (and our long awaited £15), but I really think some of the above is going to give us a more immediate boost too when the time comes, so IMO expect a build to the SP into April irrespective of what Biosynex does. Get them cheap whilst you can. (Please DYOR)

I think you might be right Baby Huey - the same Q three times put in different was and ignoring responses!

Hello Didi - please look at my detailed response (22:10) to your Q regarding information timing last night.

The reason we are at the current price is due to information flow (or rather the lack of it) - we are all waiting for the same thing - when we get the information we are hoping for things could move very quickly.

Some have sold thinking they can return when the news eventually comes - they may be right, or they may be locked out - until then you'll have to do as everyone else and wait patiently.

@didi888
Sorry for the tardy reply to your Q regarding when will news drop.

The short answer is that your guess is as good as mine!

The slightly longer answer is that we know that full year results will be due in April at which point we have been promised more details on which tests are going to be released in Q4 this year, as part of the post pandemic strategy.
However, this does not preclude other news falling either before then or afterwards.
We have not had an R&D update for some time and judging by the usual frequency could have expected one in February. That has clearly not happened, so it could happen in March or they may decide to roll it into the April year end mentioned above. The CoPrep release has been delayed into March but, even if news on this is released, it is unlikely to be in the form of an RNS (more likely a tweet) unless it is wrapped in with other news releases.

Separately, you should be aware that Biosynex have accumulated a 4% stake in Novacyt. If this increases further we can expect another TR1 but current volumes are not indicative of any further buying at the moment. Equally, they may now be in discussions with Novacyt who may choose to announce something but my guess is that this is early days and we'll not formally hear anything on this for some time.

The DHSC dispute has been rumbling on for over a year now. We could hear news regarding progress (windfall for the company) or otherwise (legal proceedings) at any time but some feel this is tied in with the GLP review and this has been kicked into touch until at least May, so don't hold your breath on this.

We could be eying up a company ourselves. We have the buying power and money would be spent on an acquisition if it were felt by the BoD to be in line with our strategy of becoming a leading , international diagnostics player. We are not going to hear anything until it is a fait accompli and the ink is dry, as was the case with the purchase of IT-IS.

We are always hoping for new contracts. These could come from our own government, other countries, UNICEF or the WHO. And they could be for the supply of tests or for surveillance type work.

Then there are things outside of the company's control such as a new VOC coming to light.

That's all the known unknowns - then of course there are unknown unknowns - as I said at the start - your guess is as good as mine as to what else could be announced and when they will do it. (We've had hints about possible tie ups with Tata, for example, but what have we not heard about? Could anything have escaped the intrepid researchers on this bb?

I hope that goes some way to answering your question.

GLA

I wouldn't say April necessarily - yes, the post pandemic strategy won't be announced before then but March could see anything from further TR1s and CDTA updates to current R&D updates or M&A activity (they could easily splash out on another IT-IS even if they are not totally concrete on available funds) and , you never know, perhaps progress on the dispute - it's got to come some time afterall.

But, I agree with you on the fact that their is nothing much to do but hold until we hear something.

Unless you still have cash, of course, in which case here's a real bargain! (IMO - please DYOR)