RE: Looking at it mathematically6 Nov 2025 19:51
I don't think it is as simple as that Davius. Are you suggesting that the possibility of a yes vote has changed dramatically since 8am this morning, going up and down in line with the SP?
Also, there are a few other options. It isn't necessarily a 0p option, as it could be a big RI / D4E. It could be another bid (although unlikely in my view) and so it isn't quite as simple as your simple maths suggests. There is also a natural discount as the 30p wouldn't be paid for ages. Even if there was a 100% chance of 30p in 6 months time, it doesn't mean the SP would be 30p today.
A nice simple try, but a few more variables to consider I suggest.