Member Info for hey_arnold

Previously I was net short ASOS but think this provides better protection against general market moves.

In terms of quality Boohoo should be the preferred pick in the sector. Given the strong move up yesterday on Asos I have gone long boohoo vs Asos as a relative value play. I expect ASOS margins to remain under pressure given a tight global shipping market and Boohoo likely to be better positioned to control input costs with local manufacturing.

Shorts

Sorry for being doom and gloom. Ill stop posting. GL

My aim was really to just put across a view and counter argument to those saying this was a screaming buy at higher prices. There are reasons behind why this is falling and that is what I was trying to provide some colour on.

Yes I have been bearish on this for a while you are right.

I cant remember exactly what the threshold is for a TR1, but I'm sure there are lots of IIs holding this below the threshold, so its difficult to draw conclusions purely based on whether you see a TR1 or not.

As with most stocks there will come a time where this is a buy, I'm just not sure that is yet.

I think a massive correction is on the cards for equities globally. I work in natgas trading and the market is structurally tight until 2023 possibly further out, so I see energy prices remaining significantly elevated, leading to longer term inflation problems.

For those that want to listen, what we are currently seeing is rotation out of sectors that cannot pass on higher input costs. Retail customer demand is highly elastic and therefore there are better opportunities elsewhere. I can promise you this is not being taken lower so institutions can load up, the reason its going lower is because they are unloading.

What we are currently seeing is rotation out of sectors least able to pass on higher input costs. Demand for retail goods is highly elastic.

Sorry if im overly gloomy to everyone else, i appreciate its frustrating when someone is negative when you hold.

Not sure why you think I'm making losses, read my posts, I was calling these on some of the other boards weeks ago.

I'm leveraged short Nasdaq on expectation of rates rising quicker than expected impacting high multiple stocks, long energy and have been short ASOS.

I think there is money to be made here but not yet.

take a look what happens to companies trading on high multiples when interest rates start increasing.

This might be offset by increased earning from credit facilities of customers.

Another negative angle here is that if you expect higher interest rates, then you will also be charging higher rates to customers to borrow (N-Brown) which will likely also reduce the demand for your products.

So you have margin compression from higher input costs plus lower consumer demand.

Ignore CHRI55 he talks rubbish.

Looking back at prices and saying oh they will go back up to those again is stupid. The market looks forward and input costs are going to rise significantly. This is still a sell.

I'm expecting this to fall further in the coming weeks. There is no short term catalyst for this to increase.

Hey Adam thanks for sharing.

Hope some people reduced before today. Not great results as expected.