Member Info for Hexam

I agree, a bid (if one comes) could be much higher or lower than 50p - I just used that as the example as it was the original suggestion.

Lots of possibilities and moving parts here which makes it exciting but all I’m saying is that personally 50p would be enough for me (and for some more but clearly not nearly enough for others).

I doubt though if anybody’s ‘price’ will be influenced much by whatever is said here.

"Why would anyone sell for £600m market cap when a conservative view has given an £800m sum of parts."

1. Because that £800m is just one subjective view.

2. Even if I agreed with that view (and that it is conservative) I would still jump at the chance at instantly getting out at a 50% profit after feeling so pessimistic for so long as the business steadily declined

3. There is no guarantee in my mind though that the business will get to that valuation if BOO carries on under current ownership even with what looks on the face of it like an encouraging CEO appointment. There have been too many mistakes over the last few years and with Kamani still there I'm not very confident that that will change (though it was interesting that it was his deputy commenting on the appointment...)

Everybody has a price and there are obviously plenty of strong views on what that price is. For me (and others) 50p would do very nicely but clearly there are many also that wouldn't budge at anywhere near that level.

There may not be any bid at all (I would be quite surprised if there was) let alone at 50p but that might be enough to win the day - it might not. In time we may see...

"I agree with HappyInvestor i think many PIs will sell happily for 50p, those that bought in the last year and those that have been able to get their average below 50p"

Agreed, even though it could potentially go much higher than that, if somebody offered me 50p today I'd bite their hands off - a bird in the hand and all that and it still allows me to get out with a very nice profit.

Whether there are enough that feel the same way to make a bid at such a price successful is anybody's guess but the small sample from this morning's posts suggests there are plenty on both sides so it may be a close call.

Certainly interesting times and it looks like BOO have raised the ante this morning with what seems like a good appointment but one that is likely to have poked the bear - and with a very big stick.

Yes, moving forward it looks grim for ARB but actually October itself may be quite surprising and revenue COULD be as much as $3m. Difficulty across the month is only around 1% or so higher than September whilst on the plus side there is an extra day, fees are higher and of course BTC has been much higher. Together it all suggests about a 20% increase in revenue for October (to about $2.6m) but in addition both August and September were affected by increased economic curtailment which may be much less now in October with the more favourable financials?

So it may still not be enough to reach breakeven for the month but the figures could be much better than September and at least give them a little extra time even though it doesn't do much to help the longer term problems.

Think we’ll just have to disagree on that one then Alex as I think any impact would have been more felt yesterday and it’s a bit of a coincidence that other markets just happen to have different reasons but giving a similar impact today.

As to the political side of it I just make it a rule never to discuss politics on here - and I’m not going to start breaking that rule now 🙂

Sorry Alex, thought you were just talking about shares. Whatever one’s personal view of the budget I can’t see any conclusive evidence that it is the main reason behind the UK stock market slump today given that it is not behaving any differently really to other major stock markets around the world.

What makes you say that Alex? The market barely reacted yesterday and today's fall seems to be global. Hardly think the Americans and Europeans were too concerned with what was in our budget and they both seem to be faring worse than us today.

No, it won't - especially as that's about the same time the latest operations update will be out which will once again show revenue at least $1m shy of where it needs to be to break even on a cash basis (and much more on a profits basis).

Also not far away from Q3 results which also won't be very pretty.

Amazing ARB is still attracting gamblers who can't or won't see beyond a company whose revenue is linked to BTC and so are totally oblivious to the seeming inevitability of its demise.

There may be some trading opportunities left (like that seen in the last few days) but there is no investment case here, no prospect of getting to 20p and little chance of surviving at all much beyond the middle of next year - if that. The writing has been on the wall in very large letters for a long time now and all a bull run would do is prolong the agony a little while longer - not save the patient I'm afraid.

It does seem a very high risk strategy to me Debacle but the business has been failing for a while in its current form and perhaps they think all this corporate tussling won't come to anything after all and the company will just be left to its fate.

Or it could be more mundane and simply part of a hedging strategy alongside some LTHs.

Either way I'm not concerned as other shorts have been reducing and besides I don't pay much attention to shorts anyway - they are just (admittedly big) players taking the opposite view to me and there wouldn't be a market at all if everybody agreed.

"Anyway, we'll soon find out who is right, so chill out lads and have a nice day"

Be assured, I am chilled out. You seem to be the one continually getting into a frenzy. I'm posting much less now as I think it is more amusing (and less time-consuming) just peeking in now and again and seeing the delusion reach new heights. I'd actually prefer it if Brew didn't post either so that the board just becomes an echo chamber where rampers eventually turn on eachother as each successive promise is left unfulfilled. As you say it won't be long before we find out on this particular one too.

So I'll largely leave you to it - at least until the fund raise or confirmation of no revenue this year. So don't worry, it won't be for long :-)

No, what was funny Zesty was you tying yourself in knots after claiming that QBT already have a working product by 'picking bits of information from a PRN and using it to spread false information'. (I'm sure Mikey reported you for that transgression as he seems quite hot on that sort of thing.)

IF they do manage get a product working AND well enough for companies to want to buy it then we'll all be quids in but they are still a long way from that. The fact that you deflected from the bet and are instead wasting your money by pouring the £100 down the ARB drain instead suggests you think they are a long way from that too despite your initial claim and bravado.

“Maybe next time you choose to jump on a thread to attack me you can have the good grace to admit when you are wrong”

You really are a strange fish 🤷‍♂️

Bfd - Scoring points seems to be an obsession with you. I didn't say MA/Frasers couldn't buy I said that I simply didn't know as I didn't know how much insider knowledge they had. Not a lot it seems which suggests to me that backroom discussions, let alone deals, are not happening (yet) to any great degree. They are just piling on the pressure from the outside - which as far as I'm concerned is very welcome.

You're right parsnip - another disappointing day but the fireworks have been lit now and it's just a case of standing back and seeing what happens. Hopefully a colourful rocket or two rather than a damp squib or a sorry sparkler. Perhaps Nov 5th will be the day...

"It's Frasers who buy the shares, not Ashley."

I think they somehow qualify as connected parties!!!

*We don't know what...

We don't what is going on behind the scenes or what Ashley has seen or not seen. Any number of things could now exclude him (if he's been privy to the upcoming results, attended critical meetings, already been appointed to the board in all but deed etc.). As to the Kamani family it is difficult to see any of them being able to purchase legally or at the very least without raising a whole heap of trouble and certainly suspicion.

I think the volume has increased simply because the share has finally become interesting again with plenty more now buying or selling. One who definitely isn't doing either though is Kamani as we are obviously in a closed period before results (and probably for other insider knowledge reasons as well). May now apply to Ashley too?

Which way the price goes from here depends on what news comes next - not any supposed MM shenanigans.

Well Alex we obviously differ on this but one thing that is clear is that the current BOD have ‘lost the room’. There are a few diehard supporters of the Kamani’s left but can’t be too many now.

As you said, we want the same outcome (a good result for shareholders) and hopefully we get that in spite of any more shenanigans from the present incumbents.

Good luck (to you and us all)!

“When the Board put forward that latest incentive package it was clear that they could not be trusted.”

Exactly - and look what happened. They are on a very short leash now so I think there is a little chance of them pulling a(nother) fast one in relation to anything anymore.