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Yes, CINE is unlikely to survive a third wave (that isn't checked by vaccinations) or having to run at 20% capacity for a year. That's hardly news though and CINE effectively say it themselves in the going concern section of the report and accounts.

It's also unlikely to survive an invasion of Earth by killer plants or the revelation that watching movies on the big screen destroys your retina (oddly neither of these are mentioned though).

The point is how likely are such events - none (I hope!) in the case of killer plants and wrecked eyesight and "plausible" to quote the r&a on their own "severe" scenario on the pandemic, attendance levels (and other things). But plausible is a long way from likely and it's up to individuals to assess those chances and to accept the risks or not - and most here I think have already made up their mind. Personally I believe the vaccine will mitigate the (probable) third wave and allow venues to open at full capacity sooner rather than later (already planned to happen for snooker). So I'm holding.

In the meantime unless there is some actual new news that really does affect CINE I don't expect the SP to move much (cue sharp movement!!) until we see headlines relating to the UK re-opening indoors e.g. "Inside venues to open at full capacity..." or conversely "Grand re-opening delayed...". I know most of the revenue arises in the US and ultimately the SP will be driven more by performance there but short-term it seems to be attention grabbing headlines in the UK that are more influential (just ask the travel companies).

Nice to be reminded of the Clangers though (misspelling aside).

Smart move - especially with price movement today.

I agree this (unloved) stock seems to present short term opportunities as well as a longer term one. Unfortunately I missed the party, coming in at 1450 so holding as the LT play and will only add more if it drops below 1350 (with target of 1550) so a bit lower than your own range. It's not a get rich quick guarantee by any means because patterns can change of course. If it doesn't go down that far again then will just be happy with my LT investment. Only real danger is if it goes below 1350 and keeps heading South but very unlikely IMO.

So again, well played!

Thriftygirl - I agree "We need to look at all factors and take a balanced approach" but I think MrMagic helps this by providing one side, albeit very forcefully at times, with (most) others providing the opposite side. I also agree that at the moment things appear to be moving in the right direction, including the SP, but it is hard to dispute that it is still an industry very vulnerable to events many of which are out of its control.

I can see the possibility of CCL coming out very strongly at the end of all this but I believe it is a difficult road (or choppy sea perhaps) to get there. It's up to everybody to make up their own minds and I think seeing all the good and bad points can only help us do this.

I think you're spot on Smithy in your analysis but as you say in your later post the statistics for retail investors are not good.

I think a large part of that though is due to psychology/mindset. The most obvious example is the enthusiasm seen to invest in markets and stocks when they are riding high and the reluctance and nervousness to do so when they are low. This turns into a buy high, sell low approach which will obviously only end one way.

In gambling terms this is the adage that you should always seek value (you may think a horse is going to win but you still shouldn't back it if the price is too short for the chance you think it has).

So I don't think people should be put off just by the statistics but if they recognise in their behaviour any of the usual pitfalls of gambling (not looking for value, chasing losses, investing based on FOMO, risking more than can afford to lose, borrowing to bet more, being sure you're going to win, not spreading risk etc.) then it definitely may be worth thinking twice.

Like you I've learned the hard way and though the above may sound very obvious it is all too easy to get carried away.

Anyway, good luck to all (as that certainly helps!) and here's hoping the price here keeps rising - which I think it will - but of course I don't know!

On the plus side if it is manipulation holding the price back this can't be sustained indefinitely if it is at odds with the 'true' value of a stock. So as long as the good news keeps coming, and there are no nasty shocks, eventually the price should break free - probably sooner rather than later IMO.

I am invested and I do think the £1.90 is positive but I just don't think it's that high up on the list of good reasons to be in this share.

LTIP targets are typically set to be ambitious but achievable or else they just become extra pay or meaningless. So it shouldn't be taken for granted that £1.90 will be reached but on the other hand it is encouraging that such a level was thought attainable.

In any case as FI has pointed out (many times) it is not an all or nothing target so not too much should be read into this one figure.

Good article Neversell - Gives plenty of solid reasons to be encouraged without hiding the risks. Thanks for posting.

It's fair point but I'm not sure how many will naturally just cross-over to cruising especially if you can't get off the boat so it's basically just a boat trip in the sun. Many people love cruises, for many others its just not for them - I don't know how big the middle ground is. Besides it's too early to say where will be open when, and what to, so I'm not sure how big an advantage, if any, cruising will have other forms of travel. As I said there just too many unknowns and too much of a fair wind needed to convince me to invest at the moment but concede this may turn out to be one I wish I'd gone into. DYOR.

...on second thoughts maybe a cruise doesn't seem such a bad idea at the moment after all. I've just had to get the washing in - because it's SNOWING! Get me to the Med...when it opens.

Thanks K - and interesting about the OBC (and the loyal base this creates) though these are still not enough to tempt me into investing at the moment or if I already benefited from them would they tempt me on a boat just now! Though what do I know - as must admit I'm baffled by the performance of travel stock today and the 5% rise in CCL in particular.

I'm not new to investing but am to this site and find the BBs interesting and sometimes useful especially if they encourage
all views. After all, I suspect I'm not alone in looking at the negative reviews more when buying anything online.

I feel a bit like I'm intruding (or visiting Oz?) in the Emerald vs Magic exchange but I think it's great for people like me thinking about investing to have both sides of the debate being aired. Too often on other BBs any 'negative' view is just met with abuse - or worse, so is drowned out and you end up just seeing a too good to be true fairytale (Oz again?).

I don't know nor care what Magic's motivation is for posting negative thoughts but I'm glad they're here as the points are well articulated and to me make sense. I went on my first cruise not that long ago and loved it but wouldn't go near one now for the reasons that Magic gives - most notably the restrictions currently in place and the threat that at any moment you could be trapped on a 'prison ship' if a positive test or three happens.

However, Emerald makes good points too. In particular I suspect from how much some people love their cruises that there are many out there just itching to get back on a boat - whatever they have to put up with and however unappealing it seems to be to me. So I agree with Emerald there is a sizeable market there just waiting to get sailing again but I really don't know just how big it is nor can it be certain that when cruises do start up to other countries how many there will be and whether they can be maintained (Armageddon scenario is another wave/variants making current vaccines ineffective).

My own conclusion is that the uncertainty is just too great at the moment to invest even though longer term a boom in cruising looks very possible and could end up rewarding current investors handsomely. But everyone's got to make their own mind up by doing their own research and taking on board the different arguments that are put forward as to whether the potential large rewards outweigh the clearly significant risks. In the meantime if we could only click our heels and be back in Kansas...

Bizarre isn't it? I know it's the new ISA season and the market is up this morning but I didn't expect travel companies to benefit after the damp squib in yesterday's announcement. Maybe no news really is good news given the recent rough ride or maybe as now it's slipping back a bit we're just seeing again the "usual pattern" noted/predicted by Ian1970???

Pnewmarch - If you had faith yesterday have faith today unless something fundamental has happened to change your view. A dip in price shouldn't be a reason in itself. They go up, they go down, repeat - it's what shares do and this one more than most it seems. So hang tight unless something has really happened to make you doubt your original judgement and of course only you can make this call. Otherwise selling every time a share falls in price is probably a pretty good way to lose money. Good luck.

Thanks Valueplay - the 'seismic shift' observation wasn't aimed specifically at posters here (though I think it is implied a little in some remarks) but wider at the more sensationalist comments in the press etc.

As I said there is a lot to like about this company (including reasons you articulate well). The point I was just trying to get across is that in the next 6 months this is probably a harder stock to predict than most given the sharp movements in price driven by sentiment as we go in and out of lockdowns, where exactly the price is within that cycle at the moment, how quickly or not we move out of current lockdown and what may be impact on longer term behaviours (and how correlated this is with price anyway)?

The underlying health and prospects of the company look good at first sight but for me there is too much uncertainty shorter term to trigger investment - even if it may mean I miss the boat. So more work needed on my part but in the meantime I was also just reacting to the antagonism that seemed to be creeping in. Disagreements are inevitable but also welcome (as hearing both sides of a debate is useful) but when it gets more personal that usefulness tends to disappear...

Spooky. I was just thinking exactly the same thing seanb.

It seems especially odd here as there seem good arguments both for and against a surge in online grocery shopping but to generalise how everybody behaves or feels seems fanciful. People are different and so are their circumstances. So personally I don't mind going to the supermarket as it's quite a nice one, a relatively short walk away, I can go when it's not busy and I don't have to get a big shop in each time. In effect I can make each trip feel a bit like going to a 'farmers' market'. I can imagine I'd feel quite different if I had do a regular weekend shop for a big family at an out of town battle zone. I actually find online shopping more of a chore (the wearisome browsing if you don't always get the same things, getting a time slot and then having to stay in). But each to their own.

So while I think some people having got used to online shopping during lockdown will stick with it others having gone out to shop just to get out will feel it wasn't so bad after all. My own guess (and that's exactly what it is) is that there will end up being be a modest increase (above what would have been expected generally anyway) in online grocery shopping but not the seismic shift some are anticipating.

So in answer to the question on the thread - who knows? I don't think the 1600 mentioned is at all ridiculous (especially given where the price was before the pandemic) but that a more modest, if any, decrease is more likely before growth returns and it is touch and go whether the stock will be much higher then than it is today. So for me personally the price isn't attractive enough as an entry point but it's certainly on my watchlist and merits more research - and if I did hold stock I would probably be keeping it as long term there is a lot to like. Just my views.