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TT - I'm afraid your analysis is flawed as it assumes the SP should closely track BTC. It shouldn't. A rise in BTC helps of course but it is one factor in many and long term SP should outperform BTC (as it has done in the past) assuming the company gets it right. Short term all sorts of things affect the SP and can explain what is holding it back (the FunkyFinance video that many have posted on is a good place to start).

The good news therefore is that you should not be resigned to not seeing 288p again!

Already there have been posts moaning about the SP not moving with BTC, why PW isn't commenting on this and conspiracy theories about what is driving the SP.

Do people seriously think the CEO of BP comments every time their SP falls when the oil price goes up???

Bitcoin is just a commodity that Argo deal in, it is not the the sole driver of SP. The stockmarket is just that, a market in stocks so to understand how the SP moves it's worthwhile remembering that.

A very good link was posted yesterday, originally I think by Stnz and then reposted by TheEconomist and others.

https://youtu.be/HO8vuG9eKLU

The guy on this was excellent in giving reasons why the SP may have moved as it did yesterday. For those who don't want to sit through it my own takeaway was that the SP is being held back because:

1) Maybe there just isn't the market in the UK yet (unlike the US) for enough people to invest in this kind of stock. Those that there are, are probably already in and exposed as much as they want to be

2) People are selling to take profits and/or cut exposure. The share price has skyrocketed and those in it from the start have either cashed in or simply reduced their holding as what was a small part of their portfolio has grown in to a very large one. It is prudent then to reduce the holding to manage portfolio risk. He produced evidence of this and has also done it himself despite still being very bullish about the company

3) Directors selling

4) PIs selling because they panic because the SP is not moving up in line with BTC - sound familiar!

These are all much more believable than the conspiracy theories but please watch for yourself to get your own take especially as there's a lot of other good points made in the video and it is all done in a very clear way.

So please remember although a rise in BTC is good news it the balance of willing buyers and sellers on any given day that drive the SP and hopefully today won't be a repeat of yesterday - both in terms of the SP itself and the comments made about it. GLA.

TheEconomist - Totally agree. All very sensible, positive and clear, giving very plausible reasons why the sp may have moved as it did yesterday. Perhaps the link should be posted several times every day, especially those when the sp doesn't move at all in line with BTC. That way the message may eventually sink in and so stop the same questions and complaints coming up again and again as well as calming some nerves.

No worries Archy and understand the approach - in fact it's part of my thinking too (and does seem to be successful).

Many companies have already seen their SP recover to pre-Covid levels and many more will in time. However, there will be some who will never do so - either they fall sort and settle at a lower level for whatever reason (market gone against them because of behaviour post-Covid, long-term damage done to finances etc. etc.) or they may go out of business altogether as a number sadly already have. My point is simply that just because the approach works in many cases it won't for all - and the losses could be big where it doesn't. So continued good luck with your strategy but just be a bit careful - as I'm sure you will be!

Archy - I don't think it's a given that it will get back to 500p just because that was the sort of level it was pre-Covid as the changes since, including from the restructuring plan, mean that it's not directly comparable. The plan though seems a big step in the right direction so it could well get there (and maybe more). Personally I'm certainly glad, at least for now, that I didn't cash in this morning after all (more by luck than judgement).

Sorry my last post didn't answer your question and just came up with more jargon but they 'crossed'. Someone better than me can explain the technicalities of it (or you can google it) but basically by shorting you are betting a share falls in price. It sounds like what you did is day trading which basically means buying and selling stocks the same day (so you hold no stock at the end of the day). The word 'short' is confusing, as you say it could be used just to say you have taking a short term position which would also be correct. Hope this helps.

Yep EC, sounds more like you've made your money day-trading and not shorting but it doesn't matter what it's called you've made a profit so fair play to you!

I’m not quite sure either Roberto what it is you’re saying but just as an unexpected RI will reduce an SP (through dilution) then stating their aim not to have have one when one was felt possible/likely will increase SP. There are a lot of other things in the announcement and it can be argued whether overall the SP is wrong, and I agree the company is by no means out of the woods yet, but avoiding an RI is one of the positives within all this.

Agreed Roberto, the 'market' often over reacts to news and ascribes a value impact when there isn't any. In this case though there is a lot of meat in the announcement some good (such as no RI) and some bad though some of this was trailed already (the writedown). Overall I think the SP rise is not unreasonable but time will tell.

I agree news and value don’t always go together and of course it’s never good to hear about job losses, especially for those involved.

It is clear from the sp reaction though that despite ‘shrinking’ the company and scrapping dividends the announcement is expected to improve real value. Once the dust settles the opinion may change but this is at least the initial reaction of the market.

I thought it was a case of snooze you lose - or in my case washed and lost - but not sure I will take the second chance. On calmer reflection the price will have to go much higher to reach my original target so I would just be selling out early, tempting as it is to take such a quick profit, and it looks like I've missed any reinvestment opportunity.

Yeah, took the wrong time to take a shower! So wasn't quick enough to take the big profits earlier but maybe blessing in disguise as may end up being much better off having let it ride. Still, would have been nice to have crystallised a gain and had the opportunity to reinvest (if there is one - as price is all over the place).

Note to self - shower before 8!

Agree Ollie. It feels like the last obstacle has been overcome and barring any nasty shocks it's now all about the re-opening and how quickly, with the help of the vaccine, that venues can get up to capacity.

There may still be a wobble in the next 24hrs as those determined to make a bad headline out of this do so but beyond that, and assuming Boris sticks to the timetable, it's all looking very positive.

I agree that was news but it is not new news today. I get that you believe strongly that cruising has this big advantage over flying and I respect that even if I don't agree with it (for me their are too many unknowns to call it). Using a momentary fluctuation in share price in no way supports that argument unless there is a clear driver for it (has something new that I've missed been released today about the traffic light system that makes such a difference)?

In any event at the moment CCL and EZJ are both down about 3.5% which shows the futility of bringing sp into the argument and by your own reasoning would be evidence that cruising and flying are equally impacted. As mathsprof says, 5% movements in share price mean nothing and trying to add this to your argument just ends up devaluing it IMO.

Just goes to show that using daily fluctuations in share price is perhaps not the best way to win an argument.

Such movements are generally meaningless unless accompanied by some actual news.

Mine's the same as for every other day in the last month - where CCL has gone up more than EZJ a total of 10 days and EZJ has gone up more than CCL a total of...10 days.

Cracking post! Sounds great, so long as I don't get stuck next to the nutter who constantly whines about the share not having quadrupled in the last week. Maybe social distancing does have an upside?

I'm not sure which way it will go as I suspect some lazy journalist or three will make a bad headline out of it even though it is just regurgitating old news and this may spook some investors. In any event, assuming there are no shocks from the meeting, I don't think it really matters which way the price wobbles tomorrow as the positive vaccination news others are describing here should accelerate the opening at full(er) capacity and this IMO will probably be the real driver in the weeks ahead.

Let's face it there are millions eager to getaway whether it's by boat, plane or camel - and this is reflected in the bookings for each (though I'm winging it a bit about the camels).

The thing is though nobody can know what the situation will be over the next few months - will my holiday be cancelled, what traffic light colour will be assigned to my destination when I depart (and in the case of a cruise will this change by the time I arrive) etc. etc.

I could put forward decent arguments about why flying MIGHT have an advantage over cruising and but also why it MIGHT be the other way around but all it would amount to is idle theory, add to a debate that is already going around in circles and in the long-run probably doesn't matter - so long as the companies can survive long enough for everybody to take a decent slice from the cake of pent-up demand (albeit maybe reduced in size by increased numbers opting for staycations).

In the meantime I think it is very hard to judge what is a 'good' price for any travel company at the moment but if anybody wants to take a speculative punt (and that may still include me) then that's obviously their choice and good luck to all that do so - but just be prepared for lots of continued volatility in the near future as one dramatic headline follows another.

Agree Jed. Too many uncertainties around both for people trying to plan their holidays and for companies trying to provide them. Jet2 have reacted to this uncertainty by cancelling all flights and holidays until June 23rd.

So whatever the long-term outcome I suspect there will be a lot more volatility over the next few weeks as the headlines chop and change and the details emerge (or don't). So I too wouldn't be surprised if SP drops to 340 - or if it rises to 400. Anybody's guess.