Member Info for Hexam

Have to side more with Bladey on this one. FTSE may only be 1% down but most recovery stocks (travel companies etc.) are down much more and similar to CINE. Indian variant is seen as a worry and obviously affects those companies that rely more on the economy reopening. Having said that I think it's just yet another market over-reaction so personally not too worried about it and at these prices have just topped up.

er...not really. That's just the value of assets, it holds as BTC, per shareholder. The SP (and hence mcap) is just an imperfect view of what the imperfect 'market' thinks the company is worth taking into account everything - particularly its future anticipated growth.

Xenor - I'm deep in red too and this is by far my worst performing stock but nothing has happened to change the view I had when I first invested not so long ago, only the SP which is driven by all sorts of things that, in this case, seem to have nothing to do with the company's prospects (that I can see anyway).

Even IF there is a crypto bear cycle then as long as it IS only a cycle it is a case for me of just waiting it out which may be easier said than down. So I'm still holding as I believe the SP will recover just no idea when. What you do of course up to you and your circumstances (as it is with everyone) but if you are tempted to sell at a loss maybe think: if you thought the stock was good value before when you invested what has really changed to make you think it is poor value now at a lower price? I can't think of anything but maybe I've missed something - I often do!

The fundamentals have indeed improved but I get what you’re saying Bestguessing. So otherwise spot on for me.

andecc - I don't think a lot of those doom and gloom merchants were clueless. Most knew what exactly they were doing and were just being malicious to try and make people suffer for their own perverse enjoyment or get people to sell so they could buy shares cheaply.

I do feel sorry for at least some of the people that have sold shares, especially if at a loss. Sure it is they who ultimately caused the price to go down but that only harms themselves and in turn others that go on to sell in the panic - but for LTHs and new investors it just gives more buying opportunities.

I'm not particularly sorry for those that have simply made an investment choice but others have succumbed to the vultures that prey on fear or may have been forced into a sell (through ill-advised stop-losses or an unexpectedly urgent need for cash) and I do feel sorry for them.

GLA

Must admit I see buying a house as buying somewhere to live, not an investment or gamble.

I think the point here is that investing in the stockmarket is not like games of chance which rely on just luck and I'm not saying it is. It is though risking money on an unknown outcome just the same as placing a bet on a horse where even if you know a lot about horseracing it would never be described as anything other than gambling.

All this may seem semantics but the same problems with gambling however it is defined can be seen in investing and certainly have appeared on this forum in the last few days (chasing losses, going 'all-in, knowing "for sure" what's going to happen etc.)

Just saying be careful, that's all.

Sorry but investing is gambling - it is not an "or".

It is risking money on an unknown outcome - the very definition of gambling.

Of course you can research the companies and believe you are placing a good bet but that is no different to studying the form in sports gambling. It is different though to games of chance (roulette etc.) where you are just relying on luck but it is
still gambling. So if you want to improve your odds and not just rely on blind luck do the research and of course only risk what you can afford to lose - unless you want sleepless nights.

The planet Pluto is a treacle boat which is why it is no longer called a planet.

Sorry, just thought I’d contribute something that makes a bit more sense than the derampers.

Why the SP has behaved as it has, has been covered many times in last few days - different theories, some better than others, so worth a read for anybody confused by recent movements and can then form their own judgement.

For me it just highlights the disconnects between SP, BTC value and 'real' company value in the short term.

SP is driven by balance of buyers v sellers at any time.

Buyers and sellers should be driven by what they think a company is really worth but that implies a perfect market which it certainly isn't. Manipulation, panic, ability to invest, necessity to sell etc. all play their part.

What ARB is really worth is affected by BTC value but it is only one factor. It does directly affect the assets held as BTC on the balance sheet but it is the future price that is more important and even then the rate at which new coins are mined that is more important still (along with lots else).

In the short term the SP should not be expected to follow BTC religiously or necessarily make any sense regarding the real value of the company. And anybody that says they know what the SP is going to do on Monday doesn't - it's a guess and the more certain they sound the less they should be believed.

Option C - Missing the boat altogether by never investing at all (but B if sold when at a loss, or A if HAVE to sell at a loss because needed the money)!

Thanks Markp - I think your fear should be allayed though as unless some dodgy insider trading is going, if there is some real reason and no-one knows it then it can't affect the share price...as no-one knows it!

"So what market dynamics drive a more than 30% drop in a week for no clear reason?".

I think that it is exactly because there is no clear reason that it is likely to be market dynamics - it's all that's left if there is no actual real, major and relevant news that explains the drop (and I don't think Turkey is that news - it's like me boycotting the local supermarket).

I'm not convinced it is all, or even mostly, manipulation. I think it is more likely that PIs are impatient and/or nervous and are simply jumping ship to try and search elsewhere for the next pot of gold or are just trying to protect what they have. This then creates a snowball effect until eventually the fundamentals win through (or some real news actually does appear).

I suspect this share has a higher proportion of PIs than most and a higher proportion of inexperienced investors and investors that are not well diversified (as I'm guessing there are a lot of fans of Crypto here rather than of investing generally). Could be wrong but if not then this just increases the size and speed of the snowball.

So IMO it is as many people are saying just a case of being patient though that can be hard staring at the SP especially if overexposed. Just think why you invested in the first place and whether anything other than the SP has changed since.

"When I got at in at 80p on 29th Jan Bitcoin was 31,000.
Now 160p and Bitcoin 62,000 ie x2, so why expect it to be more?"

Simple - Investing in ARB is investing in a company that deals with BTC not an investment in BTC itself. One would hope/expect that long term ARB growth will exceed BTC growth as it leveraging off it (all else being equal for example its revenue will grow faster as its BTC holding will rise in line with BTC but it is also adding to this holding each month). But if PW thought he could not grow profits faster than BTC wouldn't he have just invested in BTC instead? Of course the company has still got to do the right things to make this happen but nothing I've seen suggests it is on the wrong track.

In the short-term lots of things affect SP and that's just what we are seeing now - and one of them is not a correction IMO.

Agree Bucket. And de-risking is a sensible thing so even if as you say it turns out to be the ‘wrong’ thing it is still the right thing - if that makes sense!

Great post! Although the numbers are built on assumption after assumption, so am not so convinced about all of them, I do agree with the sentiment - namely that the sellers will eventually run out of steam - just knowing when is so hard to judge.

A very informative post though and a timely reminder that SP is driven by the relationship of buyers v sellers which is in turn driven by all sort of things not necessarily linked to the ‘real’ value of a company.

Your post certainly gave me extra reassurance to hold.

I think you are spot on Anaes67. It is the trend that is important and keeping the measure the same is key in determining this, imperfect as it is (though I struggle to think of a better one).

More important I think though is the point from the original post i.e. that despite this measure looking so much better than it was the media can still find a way of making a bad headline out of it and damaging the confidence in the recovery (and so also in the companies like RR that rely on that recovery). It's sad but also sadly inevitable.

Couldn't agree more BG. I topped up too yesterday when the price dipped and have also reached the level of exposure I am comfortable with.

I bought this share as it seems a well run company, in a growth area that seems to be doing the right things. A daily change in SP does nothing to change this view. Only some news on action the company takes, or other news that affects the company in a big way will make me rethink (good or bad). The change in BTC value is not one of those things unless it is really, really dramatic (again good or bad). The SP and BTC value do not go hand-in-hand and should not be expected to.

Bucket - Only if makes more people want to sell the share than buy it. It's a market place and that's what drives the SP short term.

Just ask yourself. Did the rise in BTC yesterday make you buy more shares? If not, and everybody is doing the same, just watching BTC take off and staring at the SP wondering why it's not going up then there's the answer.

Of course there's lot of reasons why people buy and sell Argo shares and the BTC value is one of them for some - and it does help drive the long term profitability (which in turn should attract more shareholders in time).

But yesterday all the factors put together ended up leading to there being more pressure from sellers than buyers. That's all.

Fair play Ultrashort for making so much profit but also for backing up two of the theories FunkyFinance gave on his youtube video as to why the SP has been held back lately - a) those that have been in a long time taking their profits and b) nervous investors selling as worried why the SP is not going up with BTC.