Member Info for Hexam

Agree that the SP is cheap at the moment though the current PE ratio is probably closer to 20 given other costs etc. above those included in the mining margin. On the other hand the PE ratio does not include any appreciation on BTC held. So whatever way you look at it, it certainly appears cheap and I think this just reflects its lack of profile to attract a wider pool of investors.

I agree that the mcap of ARB makes little sense compared to the those of MARA and RIOT given how the companies compare financially but as others have already said, the SP depends ultimately on one thing i.e. investor demand for shares.

The big difference between us and MARA and RIOT is that they are on NASDAQ - we aren't. They each have over a 100 institutional investors - we have just a dozen looking at figures from @Trelawny. It may be just coincidence but I don't think so as NASDAQ raises the profile for potential investors so much more.

We need that listing quick.

Agree ArgoBull that there is some tree shaking but ultimatly demand should win through. As to wide spreads @Treacle24 this can happen for a number of reasons including volatility with the MMs simply being unsure what on earth is the right price to set so are playing it safe. The other thing of course is that the MMs are not one person/company but several/many competing so spreads will seem strange at times as they'll be offering different prices.

The SP is not fiddled (much). It is demand (or lack of demand) from investors that drives the SP. If MMs set the price too low then they won't attract enough trades as not enough people will sell at that price. If they set it too high this is also the case except it is because not enough people will want to buy. So blame investor demand not the MMs.

As good as these results are the real question is why new investors aren't being attracted. Personally I think it is maybe just because most people still haven't heard of ARB and won't even look at the RNS - and if they did they won't go beyond the (current) low profit number. This is still a company that is invested in because of the huge numbers it can post in the future, not what it is making today, and for that investors need faith.

So the RNS is preaching to the converted but something else is needed to attract a new set of believers. I have confidence this will come in time but it will either need some step-change event (BTC going on another surge, NASDAQ etc.) or will come gradually from improving results that eventually can't be ignored.

Agree that much of the drop is likely to be due to the Stagecoach family disinvestment (Firstgroup also down a similar amount).

It seems a huge over-reaction and like you I expect a bounce very soon - not just here but for SGC and FGP too. Duly topped up.

Agreed. Been looking at this share for a while and when I saw the drop this morning an entry under 92p seemed too good an opportunity to miss. Checked first what the reason was to make sure it wasn't something to put me off but given their ages it seems a reasonable thing for them to do. Sure the timing does seem a little disconcerting as it may suggest they feel the sp won't climb much closer to pre-Covid levels but then again it is about 3x what is was last year so cashing in now doesn't seem so strange.

So seems a typical overreaction that the market tends to have to 'bad news' which then often reverses quickly. Just hope it is another one of those and that I really have got myself a bargain?!

I agree that something is needed to push the SP on and also with SABY16 that it is not any market manipulation that is holding the SP back - just a lack of current buying pressure. Clearly there are many posters that feel strongly that the mms are messing with the price but how and why - and where's the evidence?

I feel though that the financials for this company are so good and the upcoming developments are so exciting that eventually it cannot fail to escape the attention of more potential investors even if that won't be tomorrow...or then again perhaps it will be :-)

Hi Proph. Unless I've misunderstood you, you are talking about the 84% margin reported for March, 81% Feb etc.?

In this case I do think it does make much more sense to use the average price as this gives a far better (and more stable) indicator of the efficiency of mining. Using the price at reporting could give some ridiculous answers (e.g. close to 100%) or some misleadingly poor ones depending on how BTC has moved in the meantime.

Very much agree with the sentiment TimitoBoo - though hopefully your percentages are skewed a little on the pessimistic side.

It takes a brave (or foolish) person to post anything that comes across as negative (or even just not wholeheartedly positive) on any BB as it can be jumped upon quickly and without mercy.

It is perhaps understandable though as some people having made an investment will see any perceived negativity as an attack on their judgment and will defend it at all costs.

Personally though I like to hear both sides of a debate so long as it is reasoned and not just mindless ramping or deramping (in which case it is easy to ignore). The only way to truly test your judgment is to listen to the opposing view.

So whilst the more malicious deramping (or ramping) should always be called out to protect others, a bit more tolerance on the rest would be welcome.

I think though that this BB is friendlier than most and that a lot of the ramping is just fan-boy enthusiasm and, as you say, in amongst the noise is a lot of great stuff.

So thanks to all those great posters, I’ve certainly learned a lot, and good luck to all those genuinely invested or thinking of investing - whatever your views.

Will HODLers benefit more? Assuming it does reach 4.80 there is no way of telling who will benefit more. Those that hold will have something worth about 175% more than it is now - a very nice return!

Those that dip in and out will certainly get less IF the value goes up more or less in a straight line (as they will miss out on some of the rises).

But if ARB continues to be as volatile as it is now, those who keep selling their stock and re-buying at a lower price will inevitably get more than 175% return - so long as there is not a prolonged period of straight line growth that they miss out on along the way.

I don’t know how ARB will move in the future so am not saying one which way is better and each has different risks which will more suit some than others. What I am certain of is there is no way of knowing in advance - though I suspect the optimum approach is to do a bit of both.

Agreed. A crystal ball is a fact - what you see in it isn’t.

Yep, good news indeed. Proving to be a bit of a dark horse for me this one and hope it climbs further on the back of this and other things that may be simmering in the background.

I don't think it is irrelevant at all and is a very good question as it would give a reference point and may help keep the swings in BTC in perspective. Unfortunately I don't know the answer but I suspect you're not too far off HarChris and expect the number is also decreasing.

Xenor - Personally I would wait until 223p to de-risk as it's much more satisfying to do this at a profit than a loss, and I'd be very confident of it getting back to that level in the near future. Obviously I'm not you though and if it is causing you anxious weekends maybe find creative ways of making yourself stick to whatever target it is that you do set (maybe a treat if you do or a punishment if you don't)!

Yet another over-reaction and yet another opportunity for those that are trying to get their average down, whilst other LTHs just sit back and watch the world go by. GLA.

Spot on Shares121. Try as I might I just can't understand this obsession with daily, hourly and even more frequent movements in BTC. The longer-term trajectory of BTC is important, not what it does from one minute to the next (unless there's a truly seismic change of course). Same with the SP (unless you're thinking of buying or selling imminently). I think the running commentary just creates unnecessary worry (or hype) as well as food for the trolls.

GG - I agree that holding long on ARB gives a great chance of making serious gains and if ARB went up in a straight line those gains would clearly be more than could be got by trading (simple maths). As we've seen though it doesn't and it's very high volatility means it is also an ideal share for trading too. Personally I'm doing both (most held long-term but some to trade) so will find out in few years which approach, for me anyway, worked best!

Totally agree Proph. If a share is underwater it's an easy decision for me. Hold - unless something big has happened that means I need to reassess what I think the share is worth. Otherwise if I thought it was a good investment before and nothing has really changed then surely it is even better value after the sp drops (unless there is a clear reason why it should have dropped) - and the only decision is whether to add to take advantage of this.

Protecting a gain is harder though and like you I set targets in advance to try and take the emotion/greed out of it. I also set targets as to when to invest or add. I find this works well, especially as someone with way too much experience of gambling, as temptation and greed take over (buying too readily, selling too quickly or 'I'll just hold out for a little longer to see if it goes up even more'). The difference with me is that I set targets for all stocks. Those that are more like what you describe as investments I just set higher targets for.

Everybody must find the way that suits them but this discipline works well for me with one noticeable exception - ARB - which I bought left, right and centre as it was on its way down recently!

Agreed - and looks like you're getting your wish although TUI not recovering as well as some. Seems to be getting as predictable as clockwork. Bad Covid headline - travel companies etc, dive. Next day realisation that over-reacted, shares recover. Repeat (though time scales may vary). Always risk that won't recover of course but in the meantime it is heaven for day-traders and other short term dealers. Wish I had the wealth and spare cash to take advantage :) However, not worth the trouble or risk for me the sake of a few %.

Actually I think it is important to try and understand why an SP may be moving as unless you have some idea about what is happening now it is harder to assess value/predict the future. So I've taken the view that today's 5% drop is related to the latest Covid scare (as lots of stocks in the recovery space are down similar amounts). As such I've topped up as in my view this is an over-reaction and so is an opportunity to get a cheaper price. I wouldn't be surprised if CINE (and similar stocks) bounce straight back tomorrow - they often have after similar scares. Of course I could be completely wrong though in this case I would only have not have topped if I could come up with a reason why the price had dropped that I thought genuinely made it less attractive (and looking at boards like this can help).

I agree I don't KNOW why the SP moved, and that no-one can, but I don't think there is anything ridiculous with taking a view and acting on it - so long as you don't state an opinion as fact.