Member Info for Hexam

Could be anything. Logic suggests maybe 140-150 but the sp often defies logic for whatever reason and of course there could be other news next week that propels it forward or holds it back.

Not that it really matters unless you're trading it as sharp ups and downs come and go with BTC and ARB and not always together. It's the longer term outlook for BTC that's key and the recent strength in the price is at least very encouraging for that whilst the other fundamentals for ARB remain as strong as ever and look to be going to the next level with Texas.

Agree Calamari, though I think there's at least one more category. I think it is fairly certain they won't just be building rigs in Texas and fiat surpluses from other sources, from Texas or elsewhere, will also be available should they be significant.

And whilst each do have their pros and cons I do believe whatever method is chosen will ultimately benefit shareholders given the growth they are likely to lead to. It is also why it is not possible to know in advance which they will choose as the pros and cons change with circumstances.

Echo Phoebus - great (re-)post AB. It all rests on the assumptions and personally I think the hashrate will rise more quickly than you've assumed but also I suspect BTC will too. But the precise numbers aren't really important, what it does really well is to give a sense of the order of magnitude of what Texas can deliver. It's HUGE.

As to the cost ($940m or whatever) there are loads of options to fund this including the contribution from the upcoming IPO. I'm sure they'll use a range of things but whatever route is taken the sort of numbers they lead to suggest it will be well worth it and a win for existing shareholders.

There are lots of unknowns though and nothing is certain - except perhaps that the potential is massive and the journey to try to achieve it will be exciting. GLA

HGN - I agree with what you say, the first step is more shares and, by necessity the extra profits that should generate will come later - though it is also immediately worth more too as it has more capital. Whether it ends up being better in the long run depends on how well they use that extra capital but in my view they will be much better off than if they didn't grow in this way - but only my view.

As to the immediate impact on share price that is unclear but in the example I used before the sp of Abcam didn't suffer when they did an IPO and dual listing (in fact it went up a bit around that time) and I think the case for Argo is much more compelling as it is pretty clear what they'll be using most of the money for and the sort of returns available (though accept btc value is the big uncertainty).

Like you I believe the most important thing is to share information that is accurate rather than mislead but there is no harm in being optimistic and it just looks like my glass of orange squash is a bit more full than yours at the moment - but each of us has to make their own judgement.

HGN - I see what you're saying but to me the word 'dilution' is emotive and no doubt will be focused on by those that want to create fear. I also do not believe it is necessarily accurate anyway.

Yes, there will be more shares but if you take a glass of orange squash and double the water but triple the orange content then has it been diluted?

Of course we cannot be absolutely certain that the IPO will generate greater returns for existing shareholders but I'd put money on it (and have).

I agree that an ADR listing doesn't necessarily mean a new share issue but they have stated in the RNS that they are doing an IPO too and this does.

Fair question Eddie but they do represent new shares as it is an IPO which by definition is a first offer of shares to the public.

Closest, recent example I've found is Abcam who raised $180m in the US this way as part of their dual listing last October.

It's not clear yet how much Argo intend to raise but, for example, to fully kit out Texas is going to take much more money than they currently have and I think this is an excellent way to raise it as it also gives them better exposure to the US market while not burdening them with debt or meaning they have to sell bitcoin.

FUD spreaders may use the word 'dilution' but this is funding for growth where the extra profits generated should comfortably cover the impact of extra shares issued.

@600 - Good luck with those returns but I wasn’t referring to you at all as a fool. It was aimed at the ramper who confidently predicted 145p as this morning’s opening price and more generally at all those who think they can see into the future and know the unknowable.

You’re clearly no fool and keep up the great posts! ATB

Cheers Banzii and good luck.

Apologies Banzii - I was rushing and was a bit abrupt on my earlier reply. I know you were trying to help.

For anyone interested about more on ADRs please see below for the result of Abcam's recent example which is similar to ARB and also some more general info. ATB.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ABC/abcam-announces-closing-of-offering-51qzjtqdz8hrbvg.html

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/adr.asp

@banzii - it's not similar. They are going level 1, like EMH, so not a good example as they are not issuing new capital. ARB are going level 3 ADR with an IPO.

@600 - Agree, he could be serious. A good indication maybe whether he asks a similar question in subsequent interviews.

As to the sp I am not so worried about how it is acting and reacting at the moment. If the company is good, and its profits are good, then sooner or later the sp will come good too. And arb is better than good while its profitability is fantastic.

So I'm confident the sp will take off but knowing exactly when only a fool would try to predict.

Thanks K3 and agree it makes the stop gap loan which was a bit baffling at the time make perfect sense now and another part of the jigsaw that's all coming together rather than an oddity.

@600 - I listened to the interview and this didn't sound serious (though it could have been a serious thought, disguised as a joke, to sound PW out).

I really don't know how he might do it other than simply invest as part of the IPO - though I doubt the whole IPO will be as much as $500m or even close.

Agree that HGN puts a negative spin on things but he is right one thing - ARB is raising new funds as part of the dual listing.

But in my view this is a GOOD thing. The huge expansion in Texas is going to need funding but what better way than as part of gaining access to NASDAQ and a wider reach to US investors than OTC gives? The main alternatives are loans, selling BTC or dilution on LSE - all less attractive options in my view.

K3 is correct that EMH did not raise new funds for their ADRs but they went the level 1 route for ADRs i.e. no new shares and no listing (they are still on OTC). As ARB stated in the RNS they are going with an IPO, the level 3 route, which means dual listing and new capital. A better example to compare with is Abcam who raised $180m going down this route in October last year (and their share price wasn't damaged at all).

It's an IPO as well so yes, more shares, but ARB is expanding rapidly so dilution is misleading - the new capital is to help fund the growth and the benefits should easily outweigh the impact of the extra shares. The RNS does not say how many shares or the price but can only fix those much closer to the date. Personally I'd rather they raised funds this way than through debt, selling BTC at low prices or simply issuing more UK shares.

Not sure it answers your question but new "American Depositary Shares" will be issued that represent the shares in the US. Unlike the OTC shares they will not be the same as the UK shares. They will probably have a different price to the those on the LSE but they will be stay in line. For example if they are issued at twice the price of LSE shares they will always be about twice the price (allowing for currency differences). This isn't a formal link but will naturally take place as any arbitrage situations will quickly close. In short it doesn't affect LSE shares other than of course via the benefits of having a dual listing. At least that's my understanding but happy to be corrected. Hope that helps.

You’re welcome.

Limp - you’ve totally missed my point again, so I’ll give up trying.

So many good things about ARB to look forward to in the near future and much better I feel to focus on them as I think they WILL have a big, positive impact on sp. GLA

Flowerpot - Bigchops is correct. Theeduke did predict 238 recently for July numbers but he also made a much earlier prediction that it would be "closer to 400 in July".

So I think you both owe an apology and are owed one. Call it even?