Member Info for Hexam

"How you can turn 225/83% into a negative is beyond me!"

225/83% isn't a negative and I am not turning it into one. These numbers, as I said, are pretty much as expected by anyone who understands difficulty levels and how they translate into mining figures. So it is great that ARB mined 225 btc in July at 83% margin but these figures are a direct result of the huge reduction in difficulty in July. All miners that kept their machines running should have enjoyed the same sort of uplift - just as they will all experience reductions when the difficulty creeps back up.

The reason it annoys me that some people are gushing so much over the numbers is that it raises unrealistic expectations that the sp will go up because of them. This just leads to disappointment that wouldn't be there if people didn't ramp so much.

No Limpalong. Anybody with an understanding of how BTC mining works knows the numbers should have been this kind of level or more. RacingCyclist predicted 238 and Argobull over 250.

Are you saying they are unrealistic or would you describe them as de-rampers? No, they are both excellent posters who understand the dynamics but just happened to estimate a little too high.

AB - Don't forget one of the ways they will be funding the growth is the proposed IPO when they dual list later this quarter. As the RNS noted though the amount to be raised is unknown:

"...proposed dual-listing and initial public offering (the "Proposed Offering") of American Depositary Shares ("ADSs") representing its ordinary shares in the United States. The number of ADSs to be offered and the price range for the Proposed Offering have not yet been determined."

I think this is a good way of raising funds for expansion and the benefits will far outweigh the impact of the additional 'shares' issued. I suspect that they will also use the other options for raising cash too - loans and selling BTC (especially if prices are high high) - as well as using cash income that may be generated from other sources made possible by Texas.

Limp you are beyond belief. My agenda is I am a shareholder who passionately believes in Argo and what they do. My posting history should bear that out should anybody be bothered to read it. What I hate is de-ramping pond life and ramping fools that both mislead others.

The mining results for July simply reflects the reduction in difficulty. As I said, but you chose to ignore, there are plenty of other reasons to celebrate what ARB is doing - just that the mining numbers are simply in line with expectations given the reduction in difficulty.

Sorry Limp it's called being objective - something you seemingly find impossible to do.

Sorry Blubay, can't agree with you on this one. Mining difficulty was 40% easier in July but Btc mined went up 35% (despite an extra day in July too). It's good that ARB has largely been able to capitalise on the reduction in mining difficulty but the results are not ahead of expectations.

ARB do not control global hashrate and they have simply benefitted from the reduction in this and hence in difficulty and therefore in the number of coins mined. They should be judged on what they can control and I believe there is plenty to celebrate here (Texas, green mining, pluto, upcoming dual listing etc) but the mining numbers for July are only what was expected (in fact a bit less).

You’ve left out at least half the company’s expenses (again) but yes on a PE basis ARB is somewhat undervalued - though of course what is a sensible PE ratio is very subjective.

@mwhite22 - possibly but would have thought US individuals already have similar requirements for investing in shares so more a case of levelling the playing field??

From what I can see I agree that there does not seem to be a direct impact to miners. It seems to be proposed additional reporting requirements for US brokers and individuals to increase the tax collected (not a new tax but presumably just increasing the likelihood of collecting it)?

So maybe a small indirect impact as some US individuals may be put off investing by these additional requirements which may have a marginal impact on inflows but can't see anything significant from this (unless you are a US broker as they may find it very hard to comply).

Good news is that although difficulty has gone up to 6% to 14.5 this is actually the same as the average difficulty for July. So at the moment ARB should still be mining at similar levels to the high numbers that we will hopefully see in the monthly update tomorrow or Wednesday.

AB - Sorry, it might sound like my last post was in response to yours. It wasn't. Timing the exit of a long term position is probably the hardest call to make when hindsight is not available - my approach is to try and stick to a pre-set exit price but it's always tempting to hold on for just that little bit more...

Just don't get this LTH v trader thing. Everybody is a trader, it's just the time scales and target exit prices that are different and as a LTH I'm not going to turn my nose up to extra profit whilst the sp is so volatile. Seems silly to do so and involves no additional worrying about sp at all. But each to their own strategy.

"Conclusion: The typical holder of ARB shares is a swing trader, not a 'long-term' investor."

I don't think that's necessarily true. For example it could mean half hold and half trade every 24 days or 90% hold and 10% trade every 5 days. In the second possibility there is clearly a much more solid base of LTHs. Also many (including me) are probably doing both.

I'm not sure it matters either way though as in the long term sp should eventually follow the fundamentals regardless of the trading volumes in the meantime and as the sp is so volatile it can be no surprise if people are taking the opportunity to trade shorter term - including LTHs.

Reported revenue in month is definitely based on on price when mined not the end of the month. What is reported at the end of the year though is based on the price at 31/12/21 (or when sold).

Just trying to manage expectations a bit. Using that approach last month suggested a lot more than the 167 actually mined.

AB - I think it may be close to this but is a possible problem with this approach that it assumes all Argo's machines are running flat out 24/7? Presumably there is some downtime or other inefficiencies that could reduce the number?

My own guess is around 230-240 based on average daily difficulty in July compared to June - July 40% easier - plus an extra day.

In any event should be a good Tuesday - or whatever day they're posted.

AIG - I think they were very reasonable questions and you got some good responses - and some of the kind I’m sure you were expecting.

It’s rather ironic that you’ve got some flak for doing exactly what is expected of good NEDs :-)

“Sounds like Sarah's role is to be Operations, ie. to be the point of contact that knows everything about what everyone is doing to feed it into Peter.”

She is a non-exec so won’t be involved in such day to day stuff.

"I hope these women have the drive to push this company like Nicola Horlicks would and are not female diversity box ticking."

Seem like good appointments ticking all the boxes (not just the diversity one) but remember these are NEDs so less about driving the business and more about making sure PW is steering in the right direction. Looks like they've got the right stuff to do that.

Thoughtful analysis Tommy, thanks.

Market reaction feels overdone so maybe buying opportunity as looked good value before, seems better value now.