Member Info for Hexam

Chuz - I’m not sure how big a deal the additional requirements would be in practice. They seem to have taken advantage of the rule while they can, specifically for the IPO, but hopefully it’s something they can deal with readily if they no longer qualify going forward (it’s time limited anyway).

Perhaps best not to keep second guessing though and just wait to see what happens - though one thing for sure is that even if the price is being held back now they won’t hold it down another 5 years!

Chuz - tend to agree.

Btw - it’s on the NASDAQ site, so not sure how hard you looked ;-)

https://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=15175274&View=html

Think the $700m info is in here too.

K3,

I get the IPO and the reasons for it and I think it’s great. I just think nobody will pay £2 for the reasons I gave and believe Mark@1973’s analysis makes more sense. So like Mark I’m expecting around £1.30-£1.40 a share but we’ll see soon enough and if you’re right and it’s closer to £2 then will eat humble pie and salute you (and for avoidance of doubt I hope you are right as that means fewer shares issued for $75m).

Mark@1973 - that's my reading too - and share your optimism :-)

K3,

The whole $700m thing does throw an interesting light on things but it still doesn't explain why someone would agree to pay £2 for something in the IPO when they can buy the equivalent for £1.30 now (and have no lock up restriction) and could swap into the ADS's later when they choose - though maybe I'm missing something?

K3,

tbh I can't see any institution or individual paying £2 for a share currently sitting around £1.30 whatever the prospects. I agree the company is in a better position now but the SP isn't and I wouldn't have thought anyone would expect previous offerings to act as a fair benchmark. However, it all seems a bit curious at the moment (it's more normal to get the sp as high as possible before an offering not suppress it) so maybe £2 isn't as unlikely as I think!!

K3,

Did you mean £2 or $2? The last fund raise was £2 which was at about 20% discount to the then sp. A £2 price now would be a 50% premium which is obviously a non-starter unless the price hasn't been set yet and there is going to be a flurry of good news to try and get the price that high before the actual offering. In any event I don't see how the price of the last offering has any relevance to this one.

If the price is currently being stabilized around $2 (though I'm not sure this is the case) then would make sense for the offer to be around this level too (though probably a multiple to represent more than one ordinary share) especially if this price has already been hawked around and taken up?

I can't imagine it's genuine - it's the entire IPO and how would someone on Stocktwits know? Seems implausible and more likely someone just wanting attention.

Would it be that good anyway? With that big a stake (c.10%) can't imagine Saylor just letting PW get on with it and so may create tension e.g. BTC vs diversification.

Eddie - actually think it’s the Powers That Be.

@chuz - I think we're agreeing but were both rushing too much to see it :-)

btw - we strayed on to the wrong thread so I've made good our escape so we don't get trampled (as badly)

@chuz - see below from f-1/prospectus - it sounds like just BTC to me:

"On 29 June 2021 the Group entered into a loan agreement with Galaxy Digital LP for a facility of US$20 million. The proceeds of the loan will be used, in conjunction with funds raised previously, to continue the build-out the West Texas data centre. The short term loan is a Bitcoin collateralised loan against 795 Bitcoin initially with a further 86 Bticoin transferred after the period end. It has a 6 month term and attracts an interest rate of 12.5% per annum."

@chuz- they've got 881 BTC tied up in the galaxy loan but the loan is due for repayment at the end of the year anyway (so another thing to 'fund'). I was thinking also though of BTC they mine in the future - I know they are reluctant to sell (understandably) but it is an option.

@Chuz,

We now know the estimated cost of building the infrastructure for Texas i.e. $80m and it looks like the IPO will raise $75m. Obviously one isn't earmarked to be pay for the other but you are right that more money is needed for the machines to fill Texas plus any other development costs not included - as well any other DeFi investments etc. etc.

Like you say this could come from the loan or from renting space out - but also from selling BTC or more fund raises.

Whatever route is taken hopefully it is the most efficient one at the time. What is most encouraging though is that we have seen how quickly machines have paid for themselves in the past (well under a year) and this is only likely to improve with the set up in Texas and assuming BTC rises at least as fast as difficulty.

So at the moment I'm confident that ARB can keep growing quickly and profitability such that earnings per share (and hence eventually SP) will continue rise but it's early days so maybe best not to try guess too far ahead. One thing I would expect though is that as it does grow it will be able to self-fund more of the subsequent growth (whether by hosting other miners, its own mining profit or other revenues it can generate). Nothing is guaranteed though - except that it won't be boring!

Agree Herdie, I don't think it is connected to Epic but then I don't think we were ever told who it was with (just called a "second manufacturer" when the 80 PH was announced alongside the 530PH from Core Scientific). As you say though we should find out soon enough but I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if any are installed already to offset the increased difficulty. But whatever is the case the 80PH is small beer compared to the 530 PH and even more so to what Texas should deliver!

80 PH was supposed to come on line in July but not heard anything and the website is still showing 1075 total (don’t know how often this is updated). Maybe these were affected by the ePIC announcement?

AB - “Note that both have gone up this month meaning we'll mine less coins for August than July. Maybe in the 190ish range.”

True - but with the surge in BTC it should be a good month for revenue and margin!

That was my initial thought too as $10 seems to be a popular starting figure for US shares - though 7m ‘shares’ isn’t a lot so maybe they will go for a lower multiple but still keeping well above $2 per share?

Thanks AB/DS,

Also interesting that it seems to confirm the offer amount as $75m though I guess this could just be a placeholder so might still change. Also there is a link to the F-1 form/Prospectus on the Financials and Filings tab for anybody that hasn't seen it yet (long but useful reading). All moving along nicely :-)

"Shane you can’t read the prospectus yet"

Assume you meant 'Shame'. But you can read it - all 168+ pages of it. Probably the only thing missing is the price - unless that is what you meant?