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What does surprise me is you don't have to be a scientist to see that any CAR-T therapy that has demonstrated promise has either attracted a partner injecting hundreds of millions of dollars or someone who has bought the company outright, usually for billions of dollars.

Successful results will undoubtedly attract a major, in my opinion anyway.

Micky everyone has their own thoughts regarding charitable donations. Personally I'd never donate to any human charity as I think their executives are far too greedy. For me it's animals. Guide dogs for the blind, tigers, orphaned elephants and my favourite AnimalAsia that rescues moonbears from dreadful cruelty.

So Hemogenyx to me is all about potentially great returns from my investment. But, the prospect of saving a life and ultimately many lives from this treatment is very special and makes this a truly unique investment for me. I'm quite proud to have been a small part of their journey.

Haywain Vlad made a point in his last interview of HEMO-CAR-T being 3rd generation, with the same efficacy as any CAR-T that's currently approved by the FDA but being safer than any other CAR-T currently approved.

Whilst a truly massive rerate on the SP might be dependent on several patients and agreement with a major there's no doubt we should still see a sizeable rerate on successful results from the first patient, and we should get the initial 14 day results later next week.

I remain extremely confident. I think after many years JHFH is finally going to be right in that this lowly SP is not sustainable lol.

To confirm, the initial patient and subsequent patients will establish whether CAR-T works.

This Phase I trial is designed as a dose-escalation study to evaluate the safety profile of HG-CT-1 in adult patients with R/R AML. Key secondary objectives include assessing the therapy's impact on the following clinical outcomes:

· Efficacy of HG-CT-1 based on AML-specific response criteria

· Overall survival (OS) rates among participating subjects

· Progression-free survival (PFS) in evaluable subjects

· Duration of response (DoR) in those who achieve clinical responses.

Micky you have to realise just how valuable HEMO-CAR-T could be. I asked AI for a projected valuation...

If Hemogenyx’s CAR-T therapy demonstrates significant efficacy and safety in clinical trials, it could capture a substantial share of this market.

1. Market

The current market for AML therapies is estimated to be worth several billion dollars annually. For instance, reports suggest that the global AML market could reach approximately $5 billion by 2027, driven by advancements in treatment options and increased diagnosis rates.

2. Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape is crucial in determining acquisition costs. If Hemogenyx’s CAR-T therapy shows promising results, it will likely compete with existing therapies such as targeted agents and other immunotherapies. The presence of competitors can either drive up or down the acquisition price depending on how well Hemogenyx’s product differentiates itself in terms of efficacy, safety profile, administration convenience, and overall patient outcomes.

3. Clinical Trial Results Impact on Valuation

Positive initial trial results can significantly enhance the valuation of a biopharmaceutical company’s product candidate. Typically, successful Phase I trial results can lead to an increase in valuation multiples applied to future cash flows generated by the product.

For example, if initial results indicate a high response rate or improved survival outcomes compared to existing treatments, this could lead to an acquisition premium being placed on Hemogenyx’s CAR-T therapy.

4. Acquisition Multiples

In recent years, acquisitions in the biopharmaceutical sector have seen varying multiples based on clinical success and market potential. A common range for early-stage products with promising data can be anywhere from 3x to 10x projected revenues once they reach commercialization.

If we assume that Hemogenyx’s CAR-T therapy could generate annual revenues of around £500 million ($625 million) post-approval based on its market potential and competitive positioning, applying an acquisition multiple could yield:

Low Estimate: £500 million x 3 = £1.5 billion

High Estimate: £500 million x 10 = £5 billion

Thus, if initial AML trial results are favorable, a major pharmaceutical company might pay between £1.5 billion and £5 billion for the Hemogenyx CAR-T therapy, depending on various factors including market conditions, competitive landscape, and perceived value based on clinical outcomes.

I've done this with several AI platforms and the consensus is majors would pay anything from $500m to several billion dollars to Hemogenyx depending on the agreement but most suggest they'd buy the whole company.

Srug = drug

My take for a JV partner would be janssen. Hemogenyx have collaborated with them in the past and even developed a srug development model for them. With relationships in place i think they'll be keeping a close eye on developments.

https://www.jnj.com/media-center/press-releases/janssen-enters-worldwide-collaboration-and-license-agreement-with-cellular-biomedicine-group-to-develop-next-generation-car-t-therapies

Love the comment on Linkdin:

What are you most looking forward to in the next phase of HG CAR-T?

Vlad "Efficacy = saved lives"

Having seen a weeks worth of real time data the only conclusion I can draw from Vlads increasingly bullish comments is that things are looking very promising!

Key points from Vlads post:

*We look forward to accelerating our clinical study and are already laying the groundwork for the next phase of HG-CT-1 development.

*Exciting advancements are on the horizon!

*A special thank you to our scientists who make miracles happen for the benefit of patients and investors alike.

Sounds like a perfect win-win scenario!

Hulver 4 patients a month could well equate to £21m a year revenue. With expansion plans and 24 hour manufacturing, Penn joining the trial and pediatric AML and a subset of ALL to come, things are getting exciting.

Vlad appears very bullish and don't forget he's seen a weeks worth of real time data from patient one!

And if I read it correctly Pingu stating CAR-T and CDX may be bundled together is not only because of the similarities but because if a major licenced or bought CAR-T they wouldn't want a competitive product out there that was substantially cheaper..

Just a train of thought.

Micky you're right, HEMO can't continue to limp along as they are, so the question is when they will look towards investment and where will it come from. They may get a grant for millions of dollars, they may get Orphan Drug Designation that's worth millions of dollars. They may get another institutional investor or they may get a large Pharmaceutical company to invest millions of dollars and they may sell CAR-T with royalty payments or arrange a JV. There's lots of permutations but one thing is for sure, if CAR-T shows promising results there is zero chance of them ever going bust.

The question is when they get finance and how much they get. Any finance would only come after initial results that if positive, they'll pay a far higher price. If it's via a major the longer HEMO wait the more value they create so again the higher the price.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Prevail steps up again, again at a premium price but this time as a true investment through their investment fund.

But in short nobody knows. I'd wait for details from the initial patient, and the injection of the second patient as I think things will become clearer. IF you can have a little patience, difficult I know, there's every chance imo you'll end up with multiples of your initial investment. This is a very valuable product!

Micky investing in Hemogenyx is about and was always about them getting a product candidate into and through clinical trials and into production.

Successful results from the first patient, the first few patients, the six month review etc will all be milestones for the company. From past history it's impossible to know what will give a sustained lift to the share price. What I do know is at some point Hemogenyx are going to need money, probably £40-50m to get HEMO-CAR-T through the multiple phases of clinical trials. That, in my opinion can only come from a major, probably as a joint venture.

So if CAR-T is shown to have a positive impact on the patients it's then just a question of when one or more global pharmaceutical companies make an offer to Hemogenyx. From what I can see every single CAR-T company to date who have had good initial phase one results have either had a substantial capital injection or have been acquired and again from what I can see they have all been in the billions of dollars.

So for me it's a question of waiting. Waiting for initial results. Waiting for a few patients to be treated and waiting for a major to make their move. Obviously all subject to CAR-T working as we think it will.

Ste that certainly wasn't my intention but I do see it as you do, they'll only take exercise their options if we're successful, and that'll be to everyone's benefit.

Ste with warrants at £4, the previous II taking warrants at £5 and Prevail paying over 260% above the SP, it's pretty clear where these people think the SP is going in the coming weeks and months. Up!

Whether HEMO require another placement before a major steps in is irrelevant to me. The reason is simple, the landscape has changed. What I noticed from the last CLNs is investors actually paid a small premium on their purchase and after the placement the SP went up not down and there's nothing to suggest the same won't happen again if they require more money before a JV is struck with a major.

All I'm focused on is they control their own timetable and costs with their own manufacturing capability, they have analysed real time data of patient one and are looking to infuse patient 2, the Prevail additional investment comes into effect next month and the pediatric AML and subset of ALL trial begins soon, coupled with the world leaders in CAR-T Penn joining the original trial.

Monies will cover at least results for patient one and injection of patient two so if there is another raise it'll be at a much higher price point.

Everything is going well and I for one am both relieved and extremely positive moving forward.

Mentioning the second patient is absolutely crucial bearing in mind the Prevail RNS states:

'The Single Interface®, for clinical support and real-time data analysis'

REAL TIME DATA ANALYSIS from the first week of patient one being treated.

All looking highly promising to Mr.

Well done to those that listened.

Projections19 Feb 2025 16:15

That's what I love about investing, it's all about opinions. Personally I'm looking at 3.50+ next week but each to their own.

Socialist if the injection was last Thursday as some have said it would have started working in the patient as early as Saturday.

No news is good news for the next 2 1/2 weeks. GLA.

Pingu a successful phase one would put the Hemogenyx Mcap, based on future revenues of $500m pa at $2bn+.

That's a lot of upside from the current $15m.